Well that’s it from me. Thanks for the comments - including the one pointing out typos and the fact that Alex Salmond is no longer leader of SNP. Claire Phipps and Andrew Sparrow will resume normal service tomorrow. Here is a round-up of today’s developments.
- Labour has come under pressure on how it would reduce the deficit after Lucy Powell, Labour’s campaign co-ordinator, clashed with Andrew Neil on the BBC’s Sunday Politics show. She said Labour’s plans to eliminate the deficit rested on a “three-pronged” plan to increase taxes on the richest, cut unprotected areas of Whitehall spending and boost tax revenues by supporting the incomes of “ordinary working people”. But critics question whether that would be enough to reduce a £30bn deficit by 2020 under Labour. Powell said the only tax rise would be the restoration of the 50p top rate of income tax already announced.
- The Conservatives may not reveal details of plans to slash £12bn from the benefits bill before voters go to the polls on 7 May, Iain Duncan Smith has said. The welfare secretary said it may not be “relevant” to explain where the rest of the cuts will fall until after the election. His comments came after the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) thinktank said the planned cuts will be difficult to achieve, involving “pretty dramatic” reductions in areas such as housing and disability benefits over the next three years.
- Senior figures in the Scottish National party have said Ed Miliband would have to clear his Queen’s speech in advance if he wanted the SNP to support a minority Labour government. Stewart Hosie, the SNP deputy leader said it would be “high-handed and arrogant” for Labour to refuse to hold advance talks with the SNP on its legislative programme if the SNP wins a majority of seats in Scotland.
- Jeremy Hunt, the health secretary, has told the Sunday Times the Conservatives will fully fund a five-year plan drawn up by Sir Simon Stevens, the head of NHS England, and keep the budget rising faster than inflation. This will mean an extra £8bn in funding for the NHS, which Miliband has made a centrepiece of Labour’s campaign.
- A YouGov poll for the Sunday Times, taken after Thursday’s Channel 4/Sky TV grilling for the two party leaders by Jeremy Paxman, put Labour on 36%, and the Conservatives on 32%. If replicated on 7 May, this share of the vote could give Labour a lead of more than 60 seats in the House of Commons. There will be a debate featuring seven leaders on Thursday.
Fraser Nelson, editor of the Spectator, argues that Labour has no credible deficit reduction strategy after watching Labour’s Lucy Powell getting grilled by Andrew Neil.
Andrew Neil: To bridge the deficit you have to borrow more. You’re going to borrow £30bn a year simply to pay for public investment. That’s part of what you’re going to do – correct?
Lucy Powell: We are going to balance the books by the current expenditure by end of the parliament.
Andrew Neil: And borrow £30bn a year for public investment.
Lucy Powell: We may, we may use some investment borrowing for much-needed investment but not for day-to-day spending.
Bottom line: Labour — a party with a 50/50 chance of running Britain on 8 May — has no plans to tackle the deficit. Sooner or later, the bond markets may start to take notice.
The next debate takes place on Thursday when Cameron will be under the cosh to restore confidence among Tory ranks after Miliband’s strong showing last week. Here’s how James Forsyth, writing in the Spectator, sees it. He thinks Nicola Sturgeon of the SNP will shine.
The stakes have been raised, at least psychologically, for Thursday night’s debate. Today’s YouGov poll has Labour four points ahead, in contrast to atwo point Tory lead in their last survey. This is being seen in Westminster as a Paxman bounce for Miliband. If this Labour leads is still in place at the end of the Easter weekend, Tory nerves will begin to fray.
Thursday’s debate will be a crowded affair with seven leaders on stage. Despite it being a two hour debate, there’ll only be time for four questions. As I say in the Mail On Sunday, the debate will almost certainly turn into Cameron versus the rest as they all try and go after the sitting Prime Minister. Being the focus of the debate, though, presents him with an opportunity: the chance to drive home the Tory message that the choice is between him and some chaotic and unstable combination of the others.
One thing that will determine the tone of the debate is who stands where and I understand that lots for that are being drawn on Monday. Ukip, who are acutely aware that this is the one time Farage will share a stage with Cameron in the campaign, want to be as close to Cameron as possible. Farage is hoping to go after him for pledging to increase aide spending while not committing to spend the Nato minimum of 2 per cent of GDP on defence.
But I suspect that the debate might not be won by any of these men. There’ll be three female leaders on stage on Thursday night, all of whom are relatively unknown in UK terms. Of these three, the Scottish First Minister Nicola Sturgeon is the most formidable debater and I suspect she might be the most impressive performer on Thursday night.
Here’s that clip of Lucy Powell jousting with Andrew Neil on the BBC.
Updated
The Liberal Democrats are starting their campaign in the marginal constituency of Oxford West and Abingdon, one of several Lib Dem target seats where the party is fielding a female candidate.
After all the build up, it's finally actually happening. Loved starting the Lib Dem election campaign today. pic.twitter.com/oyBOkfg3w5
— Nick Clegg (@nick_clegg) March 29, 2015
Labour MP Diane Abbott does not like her party’s immigration mug or its pledges on immigration control.
This shameful mug is an embarrassment. But real problem is that immigration controls are one of our 5 pledges at all pic.twitter.com/4xslD22Gcm
— Diane Abbott (@HackneyAbbott) March 29, 2015
Alex Salmond has wrapped up a lengthy love-in with the SNP faithful. Libby Brooks emails:
Alex Salmond has just concluded a very loving Q&A with delegates in the hall. One questioner began by thanking the former first minister for his service on behalf of his wife and five children; another apologised that “I have not yet had the privilege of enjoying your book”.
Fielding questions on the referendum campaign, future currency options and the general election campaign, he managed to sidestep the inevitable one on UDI.
Asked about the Tory campaign poster showing ediliband in his top pocket, Salmond described it as “fundamentally stupid” and suggested that it would assist both labour and the SNP.
He continued to beat to drum on BBC bias and, when asked about press coverage in general, said: “I fully expected the metropolitan press to act like the metropolitan press do. We should be delighted that they act like they do and take it as a tartan badge of courage. You only get a kicking if you’re worth kicking.”
My colleague Frances Perraudin is spending her Sunday with the Liberal Democrats.
An exclusive look inside the Lib Dem battle bus. There are free sandwiches and yellow lights. pic.twitter.com/GL7bcw905x
— Frances Perraudin (@fperraudin) March 29, 2015
I missed Lucy Powell, Labour’s election vice-chair, on Andrew Neil’s Sunday Politics show on the BBC as my computer was acting up, but the Press Association has a full account of her “tetchy” exchange. Here’s an extract.
The director of the independent Institute for Fiscal Studies think tank, Paul Johnson, said that Labour’s plans allowed them to maintain an overall deficit as high as £30bn by 2020 - at a time when the Tories aim to be running a surplus of £7bn.
Powell later insisted she did not recognise the £30bn figure, telling the BBC’s Sunday Politics: “We are going to balance the books for current expenditure by the end of the Parliament. We may use some investment borrowing for much-needed investment but not for day-to-day spending. Those figures are other people’s figures. It depends on what the books are like.”
Powell said that Labour’s plans to eliminate the current deficit rested on a “three-pronged” plan to increase taxes on the richest, cut unprotected areas of Whitehall spending and boost tax revenues by supporting the incomes of ordinary working people.
Asked whether the party was planning any other tax rises to reduce the deficit, beyond the restoration of the 50p top rate of income tax already announced, she said: “That is the only tax we have set out that we will be increasing.”
In a tetchy exchange, Powell repeatedly complained of being interrupted, telling presenter Andrew Neil he was trying to conduct a “Paxo-style interview” and adding: “You’re not listening to what I’m saying ... If you would just allow me to speak, Andrew - this is really annoying.”
After Neil challenged her claim that there had been an “explosion” in zero-hours contracts under the coalition government, she told him that this was the case “in the real world where I live, unlike where you live and many other people in the media and the Tories”, earning the retort: “You have no idea where I live. Answer the question.”
Back to the present and the SNP conference in Glasgow.
Salmond says Tory poster of Miliband in his pocket is 'fundamentally stupid' & doing both Labour & SNP no harm #SNP15
— Libby Brooks (@libby_brooks) March 29, 2015
Thank goodness I remembered to bring fruit pastilles to this Q&A #SNP15
— Libby Brooks (@libby_brooks) March 29, 2015
A few whoops and otherwise embarrassed shuffling at question about possibility of UDI... "No" Salmond responds firmly #SNP15
— Libby Brooks (@libby_brooks) March 29, 2015
Like my colleague Andrew Sparrow, I have been dipping into The Pact, by Alistair Michie and Simon Hoggart, the Guardian’s former sketch writer. It is the account of the Lib-Lab government in 1977-98, when David Steel, the Liberal leader, supported Jim Callaghan, postponing Margaret Thatcher’s rule by a few years. Just republished, it contains useful insights into the endless negotiations to keep everybody satisfied. In his foreword, now Lord Steel of Aikwood writes tartly:
Inevitably people now draw comparisons with the 2010-15 coalition government. Ours was not a coalition, which meant we did not suffer from the collaboration/contamination with another party, nor the embarrassment of the student fees debacle. But undoubtedly, this Pact laid the foundations for the later unfortunate but necessary coalition with the wrong party.
The book also contains this priceless quote from Eric Varley, the industry secretary at the time: “It’s carrying democracy too far if you don’t know the result of the vote before the meeting.”
Another interesting nugget is that the man who acted as the catalyst for the the Lib Lab pact was Cyril Smith, the Liberal MP for Rochdale, who later became its most vocal opponent. Smith, who died in 2010, is now a notorious figure because police believe he was a prolific abuser of boys.
Summary
-
The Conservatives may not reveal details of plans to slash £12bn from the benefits bill before voters go to the polls on 7 May, Iain Duncan Smith has said. The welfare secretary said it may not be “relevant” to explain where the rest of the cuts will fall until after the election.
- The welfare secretary also appeared to confirm that David Cameron will have to step down before a 2020 general election, in an intervention that could damage the Tories’ general election campaign. He said there would have to be a leadership contest before the next parliamentary term finishes if the prime minister leads the party to victory in May.
- Senior figures in the Scottish National party have said Ed Miliband would have to clear his Queen’s speech in advance if he wanted the SNP to support a minorityLabour government.Stewart Hosie, SNP deputy leader, said it would be “high-handed and arrogant” for Labour to refuse to hold advance talks with the SNP on its legislative programme if the SNP wins a majority of seats in Scotland.
- Jeremy Hunt, the health secretary, has told the Sunday Times the Conservatives will fully fund a five-year plan drawn up by Sir Simon Stevens, the head of NHS England, and keep the budget rising faster than inflation. This will mean an extra £8bn in funding for the NHS, which Miliband has made a centrepiece of Labour’s campaign.
Alex Salmond is getting into his stride in Glasgow.
Salmond says criticism by 'metropolitan press' shd be taken "as a tartan badge of courage"... "U only get kicked if worth kicking" #SNP15
— Libby Brooks (@libby_brooks) March 29, 2015
The latest from Libby Brooks at the SNP conference in Glasgow.
Salmond explains he only added the line 'the dream shall never die' to his resignation speech belatedly #SN... https://t.co/RtrcjxBify
— Libby Brooks (@libby_brooks) March 29, 2015
Rather damning from the FT’s Janan Ganesh who appeared on Andrew Neil’s Sunday Politics show.
.@JananGanesh speaking to @afneil: David Cameron looks as though he "doesn't want to be there" in the TV debates, and it shows. #bbcsp
— DailySunday Politics (@daily_politics) March 29, 2015
More scepticism over IDS’s refusal to spell out those out welfare cuts.
Just watched IDS on #marr. Not sure vagueness on such large welfare cuts can last election campaign. Should be addressed in Con manifesto
— Tim Montgomerie ن (@montie) March 29, 2015
UKIP has taken umbrage at what it calls “elitist sneering” from the Tories at Thanet, where Nigel Farage is running to be MP. UKIP’s ire followed a piece headlined “Farage is made for bilious Margage” (paywall).
Writing in the Sunday Times newspaper, Camilla Long, the granddaughter of a Tory peer, describe the area as “bilious”, “grubby” and “a small nodule of erupted spleen”.
Long described South Thanet areas as “Chernobyl-like”, and the “English Defence League on sea”, while simultaneously offering her praise of the Conservative Candidate Craig Mackinlay, despite the area having had both a Labour council and a Conservative MP for the past five years.
Nigel Farage MEP, who is campaigning tirelessly to put South Thanet back on the map, said today: “This is yet another disgusting attack on the areas that have been left behind by successive Labour and Conservative governments and councils. The Thanet areas are not just some of the most beautiful in our country, but these places have so much to offer if only the establishment parties would stop their elitist sneering.
Meanwhile, Rachel Reeves, Labour’s shadow work and pensions secretary, has laid into Ian Duncan Smith.
“The public have a right to know who will be hit by the Tories’ plan and they must now come clean on their £12 billion cuts. Iain Duncan Smith’s refusal to admit how children, disabled people, carers and working families will be hit by secret Tory plans six weeks before the election is completely unacceptable.”
Reaction to what was said on the chat shows is coming in thick and fast. The Tories have criticised Douglas Alexander, Labour’s shadow foreign secretary, for ducking questions on taxes on the Andrew Marr show. Matt Hancock, minister for business and enterprise, said:
“Labour have committed to £30bn of deficit reduction, but are now in the ridiculous position of trying to rule out both spending cuts and tax rises. Their sums just don’t add up - their economic policy is in total chaos. It’s not credible - and they now need to come clean about which taxes they are going to raise on hardworking taxpayers... The last Labour government clobbered ordinary families with higher taxes last time and it’s clear Ed Miliband has learned nothing from their past mistakes - a vote for Labour is a vote for higher taxes.”
The Liberal Democrats have poured cold water on Jeremy Hunt’s pledge to spend £8bn on the NHS. Their campaign spokesperson, Lord Paul Scriven, said:
“The Tories have made no commitment for additional funding for the NHS. The Tory agenda for drastic cuts will put the burden of finding extra money on the NHS itself. Only the Liberal Democrats have committed to spending an extra £8bn on the NHS and set out a credible plan of how to pay for it... The Tories cannot pretend that they’re investing more in our NHS while also taking the axe to public spending. Our economic plan provides for the NHS, as well as being able to borrow £70bn less than Labour and cut £50bn less than the Tories.”
While the SNP has said they want to keep the Tories out of government, the Democratic Unionists in Northern Ireland are singing a different tune. This from HenryMcDonald, my Ireland colleague.
Northern Ireland’s First Minister Peter Robinson has restated the Democratic Unionist Party’s stance that they could work with either the Conservatives or Labour in the even of a hung parliament.
“We are one of those parties that has not determined that we will only speak to one party or the other.
“We’re open to speak to whichever party I suppose in the first instance constitutionally we would want to go to the party that has won the most seats, but we wouldn’t be adverse to speaking to the party that comes in second place,”he told Andrew Marr on the BBC today.
Robinson also denied reports that the DUP was seeking a £1bn aid package for Northern Ireland as the price of the party’s support for either David Cameron or Ed Milliband. He described the figure as “vulgar” as well as inaccurate.
The DUP believe they could win at least nine seats in the new House of Commons with one gain coming from East Beflast. The centrist Alliance Party’s Naomi Long currently holds the East Belfast seat but is under severe pressure from the DUP challenger Gavin Robinson - no relation of the First Minister.
SNP: 'Westminster's austerity is madness'
An update from the SNP shindig in Glasgow from Libby Brooks.
After a morning of constitutional business, which included passing a resolution in favour of women only short lists, as well as gender balance for regional lists, deputy first minister and finance secretary John Swinney is addressing a still packed hall.
“Westminster’s austerity is economic madness,” he tells delegates.
“On 7th May the people of Scotland have a chance to end the madness. We have a chance to stop the cuts. We have a chance to bring sanity back into the public finances.”
Referring to the huge shifts in the political landscape in Scotland over the past year, he says: “There has never been a time like this in Scottish politics. There has never been an opportunity like this.”
“We want to foster the sense of democratic renewal that is bursting forth in Scotland. We want everyone to feel that they have a part to play in creating a fairer and more prosperous country.”
To cheers, he concludes: “That frightens the life out of Westminster. But it is what drives the Scottish National Party.”
On Andrew Neil’s Sunday Politics show, Peter Kellner, the pollster, says Miliband’s ratings have picked up as a result of Thursday’s performances. The verdict from the talking heads, including my colleague Nicolas Watt, is that the Tories have got off to a stuttering start.
The Press Association has this story on Ian Duncan Smith, the work and pensions secretary, declining to to spell out how they plan to cut £12bn from benefits.
Conservatives may not reveal details of how they plan to cut 12 billion from benefits before voters go to the polls on May 7, Work and Pensions Secretary Iain Duncan Smith has said.
Mr Duncan Smith said that the planned changes will have a “life-changing, dramatic” impact on claimants, arguing that they will improve lives by allowing people to get off welfare and back to work.
His comments came as the independent Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) warned that the planned cuts will be “really tough” to achieve, involving “pretty dramatic” reductions in areas such as housing and disability benefits over the next three years.
IFS director Paul Johnson said that cuts under Labour would be “quite a lot less” but could involve “big cuts” in the first couple of years after the election and would leave the country with a deficit of up to 30 billion - while Tories would eliminate it altogether.
Good use of the vernacular by John Swinney, deputy first minister of Scotland, on Labour cuts. This from my colleague Libby Brooks at the SNP party conference in Glasgow. I won’t spoil the fun - you can look up oxters for yourself.
.@JohnSwinney on Labour: "they're up to their oxters in Tory cuts!" pic.twitter.com/RpCl1JfQVG
— Libby Brooks (@libby_brooks) March 29, 2015
Tories won’t like the talk about Cameron’s future which refuses to go away. Alan Duncan is Tory MP for Rutland and Melton.
Oh dear *barnacles on the boat* alert: both Duncan and IDS being quizzed on Cameron's retirement plans not the #LongTermEconomicPlan #bbcsp
— Beth Rigby (@BethRigby) March 29, 2015
The momentum is clearly with Labour, at least today. The talking heads on Sky including Steve Richards, political commentator for the Independent, and Jenni Russell, for the Times, say Miliband has emerged much stronger and more credible after Thursday’s performances. To boot, here is the Sunday Times’ lead story (paywall).
Labour surged into a four-point lead in the polls last night, delivering a wounding blow to David Cameron as he prepares to meet the Queen tomorrow to kickstart the general election campaign.
The first comprehensive national poll conducted since Cameron and Ed Miliband faced a televised grilling by Jeremy Paxman on Thursday night shows the Labour leader has benefited from a post-show bounce that puts him on course for Downing Street.
SNP: Labour will have to clear Queen's speech in advance
Meanwhile from Glasgow, Severin Carrell has the latest on what the SNP wants from Labour in case it leads a minority government.
Senior figures in the Scottish National party have insisted that Ed Miliband would have to clear his Queen’s speech in advance if he wanted SNP to support a minority Labour government.
Stewart Hosie, the SNP’s deputy leader, said it would be “high-handed and arrogant” for Labour to refuse to hold advance talks with the SNP on its legislative programme if the SNP wins a majority of seats in Scotland.
Hosie indicated that the SNP would refuse to back Labour at all unless those talks were held, potentially leading to the collapse of Labour’s minority government and a second Tory government.
His ultimatum came as Nicola Sturgeon, the SNP leader and first minister, told the Murnaghan show on Sky News that the SNP would expect to get seats on a large number of Commons committees. At present, the SNP’s six MPs only sit on two select committees.
Rajeev Syal, one of my lobby colleagues, has focused on Ian Duncan Smith’ comments on Cameron not standing a third term. It continues to be an albatross round the neck of the Tories. Here’s an extract.
Iain Duncan Smith appeared to confirm on Sunday that David Cameron will have to step down before a 2020 general election in an intervention which could damage the Tories’ general election campaign.
The welfare secretary agreed under questioning from Andrew Marr that there would have to be a leadership contest before the full term finishes even if the prime minister leads the party to victory in May.
His words appear to contradict Cameron’s insistence that he would serve a second full term in office before stepping down. It follows Labour’s poll bounce after Thursday’s televised leaders’ interviews with Ed Miliband’s party moving into a four point lead over the Conservatives.
Reports on Saturday night said that there are concerns among Tory party insiders and back bench MPs that the start of their election campaign has been too negative, and has been damaged by Cameron’s unguarded remarks last week in which he said that he would serve a full second term and then step down.
In an interview on the BBC’s Andrew Marr show, the welfare secretary was asked whether there has to be a contest before the 2020 election.
Duncan Smith replied: “He does. But I have huge faith in the prime minister... He will do what he says. He will serve what is essentially a full term.
“Of course there will have to be a competition at some point,” he added.
Asked if Cameron would have to stand down to have left enough time for a new leader to have established him or herself before the next general election campaign, Duncan Smith said: “I don’t think you are going to have a brand new leader that the country has never seen. All the people who will want to stand for that will have been in the public sphere for some time.”
More from the papers. Adam Boulton from Sky News in the Sunday Times (paywall) says Cameron is no Tony Blair when it comes to getting votes. Here’s an extract.
Cameron may end up with more votes across the UK, and may even get more MPs, but he will have to be lucky if he is to break his own personal jinx of not being an outright winner. The last time the Tories won an overall Commons majority was in 1992.
For all the talk of Cameron as “best prime minister”, Conservative strategists know that he is no Tony Blair when it comes to transforming his party’s electoral fortunes. Indeed, the signature character trait of the Cameron government may be that it is good at taking tactical advantage but poor at sealing the deal.
The Conservatives enjoy some big advantages in this election race. They are first-term incumbents. Cameron still beats Miliband in almost all surveys, including those after the first TV show. More than 40% of the public are at last seeing improvements in the economy.
Cameron could well be the next prime minister, but it doesn’t look comfortable. There’s been some disproportionate jubilation when the needle has swung to a Conservative lead — today, YouGov has it plunging in Labour’s favour. Still no Tory surge. David Cameron has not yet clinched his most important deal.
Tories to spend £8bn on NHS
Catching up with the papers. In an interview with The Sunday Times (paywall), Jeremy Hunt, the health secretary, says the Conservatives will fully fund a five-year plan drawn up by Sir Simon Stevens, the head of NHS England, and keep the budget rising faster than inflation. This will mean an extra £8bn in funding for the NHS, which Miliband has made a centrepiece of Labour’s campaign.
Nicola Sturgeon, first minister of Scotland, tell Dermot Murnaghan, that she will be the one to negotiate with Miliband on any deal after the election on 7 May. He had asked her whether it would be her or Alex Salmond.
The SNP deputy leader Stewart Hosie will give the closing speech at the SNP party conference in Glasgow. My colleague, Severin Carrell, says what’s emerging is that the SNP would expect talks about a deal with Labour before the Queens speech, even on a vote by vote agreement. While we await Severin’s story, here’s the PA take on Hosie’s upcoming speech.
With less than six weeks to go to the general election, he will say that a vote for the SNP is needed to help bring about an end to austerity and deliver more powers for Holyrood.
Mr Hosie, who succeeded Nicola Sturgeon as SNP depute last November, will close his party’s conference in Glasgow this afternoon.
He will stress to delegates: “The only way to make sure Westminster delivers - on anything - will be to return the largest ever number of SNP MPs to Westminster.”
With both the Conservatives and Labour “signed up to another 30 billion of cuts” he will say the UK is “on track for a decade of austerity - unless we achieve change by voting SNP for investment in jobs and growth”.
Mr Hosie, the MP for Dundee East, will insist that while “austerity has failed” the nationalists offer a “real alternative” to this in May’s election.
“A vote for the SNP is a vote to say ‘enough is enough’ to Tory, Labour or Lib Dem austerity cuts,” he will declare. “A vote for the SNP will give the people of Scotland the power to achieve real change in Westminster.”
Miliband has ruled out a coalition with the SNP, but he has stopped short of ruling out a less formal deal.
Meanwhile on Sky’s Dermot Murnaghan show, Malcolm Rifkind, the former Tory foreign secretary who was caught up in a cash-for-access brouhaha, has expressed his surprise at Cameron’s announcement to rule out a third term.
“I was puzzled by that, I don’t know what the thinking was,” said the former chairman of the intelligence and security committee. There was no great astonishment at what the PM said, but there was surprise over the timing, said Rifkind.
IDS was also asked about Cameron’s bombshell on the Andrew Marr show. It’s an issue that refuses to go away.
IDS agrees David Cameron has to stand down before the end of the next Parliament to allow a new leader to be elected - "he does".#marr
— PoliticsHome (@politicshome) March 29, 2015
Updated
Ian Duncan Smith, the secretary of state for work and pensions, on the Andrew Marr show on BBC 2, declined to say where the Tories would make cuts to save £12bn on welfare, despite being pressed repeatedly. This did not impress Paul Waugh, editor of PoliticsHome.
Given politicians more mistrusted than ever, surely they look ultra cynical in not specifying welfare cuts, defence spending, borrowing?
— Paul Waugh (@paulwaugh) March 29, 2015
IDS on £12bn welfare cuts: "We may or may not decide it's relevant to put something out there" http://t.co/SuBX8mAqWd pic.twitter.com/9jXPx6GlYE
— Paul Waugh (@paulwaugh) March 29, 2015
Updated
Welcome to the Guardian’s latest live election blog. Every day until 7 May, we will be live blogging to bring you the latest updates on the campaign. I’m Mark Tran and will be keeping an eye on the chat shows and other developments with the help of my colleagues as they watch
The big picture
• In an exclusive interview with the Sunday Telegraph, David Cameron acknowledges that he needs to do more to win back disaffected Conservative voters.
He says: “I accept I have a task in the next 41 days to win back people who are instinctively Conservative, who have strong Conservative values and some of them have drifted off to other parties. I need to win them back. It’s not easy being in coalition. We have had to take some difficult decisions and inevitably over five years you lose some people’s support.”
Among the measures he plans to introduce to woo back disillusioned Tories is a tax cut for married couples and a vow to cut migration to below 100,000 a year, telling voters: “I hear you, I get your message. However, he still refuses to guarantee the 2% target of GDP spending on defence.
• Ed Miliband’s hopes for the election, says the Observer, have been boosted by a poll showing Labour has opened up a four-point lead over the Tories following last week’s televised contest between him and David Cameron.
The YouGov poll for the Sunday Times, taken after Thursday’s Channel 4/Sky TV grilling for the two party leaders by Jeremy Paxman put Labour on 36%, and the Conservatives on 32%. If replicated on 7 May, this share of the vote could give Labour a lead of more than 60 seats in the House of Commons.
It would put Labour within striking distance of a Commons majority despite the threat posed to the party in Scotland by the SNP. The findings will encourageLabour MPs and activists, who had been buoyed by Miliband’s confident TV performance during which he remained composed under sustained pressure from Paxman.
Diary
• Alex Salmond, the former Scottish first minister, is taking part in a Q&A in Glasgow.
What to tweet
Quite clever. T-shirt offer from the Labour Party pic.twitter.com/r1j9sxHJBR
— John Rentoul (@JohnRentoul) March 29, 2015
If today were a film
• On the Waterfront. Miliband can paraphrase Brando playing a boxer turned longshoreman. “I am a contender”.
Must reads
• Vernon Bogdanor on why this is such an odd election. Writing in the Mail on Sunday, he says:
Why have we entered this messy period of multi-party politics, and will it prove more than a temporary condition? I believe it will, because it stems from a new social cleavage in British politics, a cleavage between those who have benefited from globalisation, from social and economic change, and those who have been left behind.
The key story you’re missing when you’re an election junkie
• Ferrari is back as Sebastian Vettel beats Lewis Hamilton in F1’s Malaysia GP.
Updated
