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The Guardian - UK
The Guardian - UK
Politics
Andrew Sparrow , Nadia Khomami and Esther Addley

Scottish leaders’ debate: Sturgeon commits to full fiscal autonomy - live

Jim Murphy and Nicola Sturgeon during the second leaders’ debate in Scotland.
Jim Murphy and Nicola Sturgeon during the second leaders’ debate in Scotland. Photograph: BBC

Evening summary

The leaders in scotland battled it out in a BBC debate.
The leaders in scotland battled it out in a BBC debate. Photograph: Andrew Milligan/PA
  • Sturgeon also revealed that she would vote for full fiscal autonomy for Scotland within a year. “As Scotland’s voice in the House of Commons, if the SNP is there in numbers we will be arguing for as many powers to come to Scotland as quickly as possible. I would like it as quickly as the other parties agree to give it,” she said. Scottish Labour leader Jim Murphy said the idea of voluntarily giving up the pooling and sharing of resources, and the ability to transfer money across the UK, doesn’t make sense.
  • Lord Ashcroft has published some new polling from 10 marginal seats which he polled last year. The key finding is that Ukip is falling back – something Nigel Farage didn’t take to heart when he declared that he is pretty sure of winning South Thanet. Ashcroft’s poll also suggested that Labour would gain four target seats: in Stockton South, Morecambe and Lunesdale, Hove, and Harrow East (see 16:07).
  • For the first time since early 2015, Labour leads - albeit by one seat - in the Guardian’s latest projection of polls. Miliband’s party is projected to win 273 seats, and Cameron’s 272.
poll

That’s all from me today. Join us again in the morning as the election campaign continues to heat up. We’ll be covering Labour’s education manifesto launch with Ed Miliband, Tristram Hunt and Chuka Umunna, Defence Secretary Michael Fallon’s speech on Trident, the Lib Dem’s visit to north Cornwall and Eastleigh, David Cameron’s visit to Nottinghamshire, Ukip’s unveiling of their policies for women, and much more.

Updated

The general consensus on social media is that Sturgeon isn’t doing too brilliantly. What do you think?

More reactions to the SNP’s claims for full fiscal autonomy:

The Twitter commentariat are talking about Sturgeon’s “revealing” announcement that she wants full fiscal autonomy within the year.

Updated

BBC Scotland debate key points

On a fresh independence referendum:

Nicola Sturgeon.

Nicola Sturgeon has placed a “triple lock” against Scottish independence - saying it must follow a change in public opinion, the election of a party proposing independence and another referendum.

But just hours after David Cameron said the issue of a Scotland referendum “was settled”, Scottish Conservative leader Ruth Davidson said she cannot envisage a scenario where Westminster would block it. “I do not see an area where if the circumstances arose again that we would. However, we would feel a betrayal very deeply when we were promised time after time by Nicola, by John Swinney, by all her MSPs, MPs, MEPs and councillors that this was ‘once in a generation’ and we were told by the end of the campaign it was ‘once in a lifetime’,” she said.

On full fiscal autonomy:

Sturgeon has said she would vote for full fiscal autonomy within a year. “I don’t think it is any secret that I want Scotland to have as many powers over our own economy and our own fiscal levers as soon as possible,” she said. “As Scotland’s voice in the House of Commons, if the SNP is there in numbers we will be arguing for as many powers to come to Scotland as quickly as possible. I would like it as quickly as the other parties agree to give it.”

Jim Murphy.

Labour’s Jim Murphy asked whether SNP MPs would vote for it next year, to which Sturgeon replied: “I would vote for it, would you support it?” Murphy said he would not, and gave these reasons: “This is the idea that we cut ourselves off from sources of taxation across the UK. After the difficult time that Aberdeen and the north east of Scotland been through, the idea that we voluntarily give up the pooling and sharing of resources, the ability to transfer money across these islands - I don’t think it makes sense.” He said Labour’s mansion tax would hit just 0.3% of Scots but it will benefit from “tens of millions of pounds of money coming from London and the South East”.

Ruth Davidson.

Ruth Davidson said that full fiscal autonomy would mean that there would be billions of pounds less in Scotland to spend on welfare. “In fact, the Institute for Fiscal Studies said it would be 7.6 billion which is more than we spend on every single pensioner in this country. That’s the other half of the equation that you don’t want the people out there to know,” she said.

Willie Rennie

Scottish Liberal Democrat leader Willie Rennie said: “Just imagine if we had a different vote last September. I think there would be blind panic as a result of what has happened in the North Sea. To have our economy, not wholly, but largely dependent on the volatile resource of the North Sea I think would have caused absolute chaos to our public services, to our pensions, to our teachers, to our hospitals. Nicola Sturgeon has got a nerve to continue to argue for a policy that was soundly trounced in the referendum.”

David Coburn.

Scottish Ukip MEP David Coburn said: “If we had listened to Ms Sturgeon and her crew, quite frankly, we would be bankrupt, we would have nothing, the country would be finished.”

On Trident:

Sturgeon has confirmed that the SNP would vote against the renewal of Trident nuclear weapons. “It is often asked of me: is Trident a red line? Well here’s my answer, you better believe that Trident is a red line. We will vote against any vote in the House of Commons against the renewal of Trident. There is no circumstances under which SNP MPs will vote for the renewal of Trident,” she said. She did confirm, however, that the SNP would still support Scotland’s membership of nuclear-armed military alliance Nato.

Patrick Harvie

Scottish Green MSP Patrick Harvie said he could never support a government that supported the idea of replacing our weapons of mass destruction. “And I would never support a government that was willing to repeat the disastrous neo-liberal economic model that has allowed wealth to be hoarded by those that need it the least while those in the greatest need are left stranded.” When pressed if he was against capitalism, he said: “I think there genuinely needs to be a re-evaluation of the nature of our economics. There is a fundamental problem with the nature of modern capitalism as it stands at the moment, finance capitalism where so much of our economy is owned by the finance industry.”

He added: “The phrase a moment ago was ‘control over our own economy’, but let’s remember that so much control over our real economy - infrastructure, oil, energy - has been handed over to a tiny number of vast multinationals. That’s the kind of control that we need to get back so that our economy itself is democratically accountable.”

Quotes taken from PA.

Updated

Nicola Sturgeon has insisted that a vote for the SNP is not a vote for a referendum. She said that something material would have to change in terms of the circumstances or public opinion for a second referendum to take place. I’ll post a summary of all the main points from the debate, which you can watch on BBC Scotland now. In the meantime, our Scotland correspondent Libby Brooks has sent me this report:

Nicola Sturgeon and Jim Murphy have clashed over the economy and welfare in a second Scottish leaders’ debate this week.

In a series of fractious exchanges between the pair which dominated the hour-long BBC Scotland broadcast from the University of Aberdeen’s Elphinstone Hall, Murphy accused the SNP leader of planning to leave a “black hole” in Scotland’s finances by voting for full fiscal responsibility.

Sturgeon accused the leader of Scottish Labour of “shamefully using vulnerable people to make a political point” when he challenged the Scottish government’s “humiliating” policy of giving out voucher from its welfare fund.

Sturgeon also insisted that a vote for SNP in this election was not a vote for a referendum, after she suggested in Tuesday night’s STV debate that the Scottish National party would hold another independence referendum if it wins next year’s Holyrood elections on a manifesto promising a second vote.

Nicola Sturgeon said a vote for the SNP was a vote to be heard in Westminster.
Nicola Sturgeon said a vote for the SNP was a vote to be heard in Westminster. Photograph: Andrew Milligan/PA

“A vote for the SNP in this election is not a vote for a referendum. It’s a vote to have Scotland’s voice heard in Westminster.”

She insisted: “Something materiel would have to change in terms of the circumstances or public opinion” and when pressed suggested this could be “perhaps if the Tories decided to drag us out of the European Union against our will.”

The biggest laugh of the night was for the Liberal Democrat’s Willie Rennie who interjected: “You’re not thinking of breaking your promise on [not having another referendum for a generation], because I would advise against it”.

The SNP leader, whose profile has risen substantially across the UK since her appearance in the first UK-wide leaders’ debate last Thursday, added: “It would be outrageous for any politician to stand up and rule out a referendum forever and a day because that is not a decision for politicians to make.”

Jim Murphy accused Sturgeon of going from leader of the yes movement to leader of the “mebbe ayes, mebbe naws” movement. “This election we’re having is not a rerun of referendum,” he said, adding: “Any vote for the SNP increases the chances of a Tory government.”

Highlighting Sturgeon’s comments on full fiscal autonomy – Scotland having complete control of taxation and spending – Murphy argued: “The most important Nicola has said tonight is that SNP MPs would next year vote for full fiscal autonomy. Nicola’s financial advisers have said it will leave a black hole, business leaders say it will leave a black hole, most importantly trade unions say it will leave a black hole. I won’t be voting for it because I want to keep to Barnett Formula.”

Rennie was again applauded when he added: “What Nicola needs to accept is that she lost the referendum last year”.

Discussing the renewal of Trident, Sturgeon repeated that this would be a red line for her party in Westminster. “We will vote against the renewal of the Trident nuclear system. There are no circumstances in which SNP MPs will vote for Trident.”

Updated

Scottish leaders' debate: round 2

A second Scottish leaders’ debate is on tonight on BBC one, with Nicola Sturgeon (SNP), Patrick Harvie (Green), Jim Murphy (Labour), Willie Rennie (Lib Dem), David Coburn (Ukip), and Ruth Davidson (Conservative) on the bill.

The six leaders in Scotland go head to head.
The six leaders in Scotland go head to head. Photograph: Andrew Milligan/PA

The programme is sure to attract a raft of attention. As highlighted during last night’s STV debate, Scotland is one of, if not the most exciting battleground of this election. Polls point to a huge swing in support from Labour to the SNP, which could result in Labour being wiped out in Scotland. This could diminish the party’s chances of winning a majority at Westminster.

Labour’s Jim Murphy fought hard for his clan in last night’s debate, and, as a result, was considered by many to be one of the “winners” of the event. You can read Andrew Sparrow’s snap verdict of that here. Nicola Sturgeon, however, did not emerge as favourably as she did after last week’s UK-wide leaders debate. Her major stumbling block came in the form of a question over a second referendum. Sturgeon hinted that the SNP would propose one in their manifesto for the 2016 Scottish elections and then seek to hold one in the event of victory – suggesting that the SNP’s promise of no further referendum for a generation was not really a promise at all. She will touch on this issue further tonight.

Because the debate was pre-recorded, we’ve already seen some of it, and I’ll post the main points after this. I’ll also post any updates throughout the next hour that we haven’t already mentioned.

Updated

The Telegraph’s Christopher Hope is in Boston for Nigel Farage’s speech. Ukip still seem worried about being asked difficult questions.

The Guardian’s Suzanne Moore has written that England’s arrogant nationalism has been a gift to the SNP. She says that the Westminster set has failed to understand the Scottish nationalist movement and focused irrationally on Ukip instead. I’ve included the first couple of paragraphs of her piece below.

A British Union Jack flag and a flag of England fly in front of Big Ben.
A British Union Jack flag and a flag of England fly in front of Big Ben. Photograph: Facundo Arrizabalaga/EPA

Befuddlement is the English virtue – or is it the English vice? It belies real anger, real outrage, and it is everywhere right now in the coverage of the election. It is a sentiment often voiced with amazement that what happens in Scotland will be a determining factor in what happens in our election. How dare the Scots be so damn influential?

This, after all, is not what we were told mattered, is it? For two years, we have been told that the key force in British politics was Ukip. Kippers, we were told each week as a different one said a different mad thing and had to resign, were the shape-shifters. Everything hinged on personalities, not issues. So, here, have another slice of Farage and ignore those interchangeable small Scottish women. What have they to do with the price of gilts?

Updated

The Conservatives have raised more than £18m from wealthy donors who were domiciled abroad for tax purposes, research shows. Labour have also benefited from non-dom donors and accepted gifts of at least £8.55m. The family that controls the Lib Dem’s biggest corporate donor is also domiciled abroad. You can view our new extensive list of non-dom donors here.

These include Lord Laidlaw, the Scottish businessman who has given £6.9m to the Conservatives, and Lord Ashcroft, the former party chairman who gave more than £10m to the Conservative party through his companies when he was domiciled abroad for tax purposes.

Labour have released a spoof video that sees a “relieved and happy” Nicola Sturgeon welcoming an election result which returns the Tories to government.

Here is a segment of Nigel Farage’s speech in Boston earlier, which I’ve taken from Youtube.

Ed Vaisey on BBC Arts

Not much debating going on in the creative industries husting yet, more of a general consensus that arts and culture are valuable.

Ed Vaizey has said the Tories have been ambitious with their tax credit policy. “We’ve tried to support arts and creative industries in different ways,” he said, adding that the creative industries have taken their place at the heart of the debate about the economy.

Harriet Harman on BBC Arts

Harriet Harman, who’s lost her voice,said she’s in the Labour party because she believe in equality of opportunity, “and that goes for arts and culture as well.” She said Labour will put in their manifesto that there should be a universal entitlement for creative education for every child.

Peter Whittle UKIP on BBC Arts

Ukip’s Peter Whittle said Ukip believe the arts are vital. “They are what we are, there is such a thing as society and the arts are an integral part of that. We also believe that it has to be publicly funded.” He said Ukip want to create in Britain a much stronger culture of philanthropy.

Baroness Jane Bonham Carter Lib Dem on BBC Arts

Lib Dem’s Baroness Jane Bonham Carter said she wants to bring up that culture and creativity are even more important. She quoted Palestinian writer Ed Said on the “working together of cultures that borrow and live together”. Creativity is incredibly valuable, not just emotionally but economically too, she said.

Martin Dobson representing the Greens.

And the Greens’ Martin Dobson said his party see arts and culture as essential for the development of the human race. “We want to get young people thinking creatively all the way through maths and physics and other subjects.” He said the Greens wants to work with other countries, and see arts as more participatory than something that should be consumed.

Updated

Representatives of the main parties, including Tory minister for culture Ed Vaizey and Labour deputy leader Harriet Harman, are currently on BBC arts to discuss the creative industries, live from the Royal Opera House. I’ll post any significant updates from it. You can also watch it live here.

Naz Shah.

It looks like the Bradford West hustings are getting quite heated. George Galloway is claiming to have a copy of Labour candidate Naz Shah’s marriage contract and says she lied about her forced marriage.

Updated

Nigel Farage has rejected concerns that Ukip’s campaign is flagging, saying on Wednesday that he is now pretty sure of winning South Thanet. As my colleague Rowena Mason reports:

The Ukip leader predicted he is on course to enter parliament, despite a ComRes poll suggesting he is behind and Lord Ashcroft’s survey of marginals showing the party has dropped by up to 10 points in some areas.

Nick Clegg has tweeted more pictures of his adventure antics.

Nigel Farage is currently speaking in a public meeting in Boston, Lincolnshire.

Updated

My colleague Larry Elliott has been speaking to Vince Cable about Labour’s crackdown on non-doms. He just sent me this:

Vince Cable said the Conservatives had blocked Liberal Democrat proposals for a tougher tax regime for some of the UK’s wealthiest residents as the business secretary waded into the election row about non-dom rules.

Following Ed Miliband’s plan to abolish non-dom status for anyone living in Britain for more than three years, Cable said the junior wing of the coalition had argued for “significantly” harsher rules but had been rebuffed by the Conservatives.

“The whole system is a complete anachronism”, Cable said, adding that he had prompted the first look at the tax position of non-doms before the 2007 election.

Vince Cable said the Tories had blocked Lib Dem proposals for a tougher tax regime while in coalition.
Vince Cable said the Tories had blocked Lib Dem proposals for a tougher tax regime while in coalition. Photograph: Martin Godwin for the Guardian

He said the Lib Dems agreed with Labour that the regime needed to be tightened up, but said it was important to do so without costing the exchequer tax revenue.

“You can’t defend the principle”, Cable said. “Given where we are, you have to milk as much out of the system as you can.

Cable said that Lib Dem calls for action on non-doms had prompted Alastair Darling to levy a £30,000 charge on them during his spell as chancellor. George Osborne has subsequently increased the charge to £90,000.

Cable said a flat-rate system scared away “Sri Lankan cleaners” while having no impact on billionaires such as Lakshmi Mittal, for whom the charge was a “fraction of their income”.

Updated

The Bradford West hustings are underway. Helen Pidd, the Guardian’s Northern editor, has been tweeting from the event and sends these thoughts on George Galloway of the Respect Party, who has represented the seat since 2012:

Dina Karim, the BBC’s correspondent in Bradford, tweets there are nearly 200 people in the audience and adds a picture of the candidates:

Updated

Dame Tessa Jowell, the former Blair cabinet minister, was just on LBC’s This Week. Here are some of the highlights from her interview:

  • Jowell said that Labour’s stance on non-doms was not electioneering, but “a long overdue change”. “Is it really fair that people can come live here for many years, be citizens, but not pay tax in the way all the rest of us do?” She said. On timings, Jowell added that you bring forward proposals during an election campaign, and people decide on the strengths of those proposals whether they will vote for you or not. “This move will be supported by people as something which is fair,” she said.
Tessa Jowell on LBC 8 April 2015.
Tessa Jowell on LBC 8 April 2015. Photograph: LBC
  • When asked about Tony Blair, Jowell stressed that the former prime minister is not a war criminal, and that he regrets as much as we do that the Chilcott Inquiry has waited so long to publish its findings. She said she supported the Iraq war and there are lessons to be learned from it, particularly that we surrendered reconstruction of Iraq to the US, which did long term damage. “I don’t think it was an error to see Iraq rid of Saddam Hussein.”
  • Jowell was asked why her party was denying the public the right to decide on EU membership. “EU migrants are net contributors to our tax system, they don’t cost our country,” she said, adding that our membership of the EU is used as a proxy for other things people worry about. She said negotiating with other European countries should be about making relationships and setting out your case, about building allies, and Cameron has let down the British people by failing to do this.
  • On Labour’s under-regulation of the banks, Jowell said ministers do not have unique powers of foresight. She said the decision to sell off gold was considered necessary at the time. “Gordon Brown made the judgement, he was the Chancellor of the Exchequer. Sometimes when you’re minister you have to make very difficult decisions.”
  • Jowell said she was worried about the impact of cuts on legal aid and the tribunal system. She said the people that lose out are the most unprotected and most vulnerable.

Updated

Nick Clegg took a break from campaigning on Wednesday with a quick trip to the outdoor adventure centre Go Ape in Halden Forest park near Exeter.

Clegg, his advisers and a group of around 15 journalists were shown by a khaki-clad instructor how to climb into a harness, attach the red and blue carabinas to a zip wire securely and throw themselves out of trees. “Where is the yellow one?”, quipped Clegg, provoking uproarious laughter from the group.

The assault course was scattered with yellow signs depicting a figure plunging to their death. “Always stay attached,” the signs read.

Nick Clegg takes a short break from campaigning and takes part in outdoor activities in an adventure park.
Nick Clegg takes a short break from campaigning and takes part in outdoor activities in an adventure park. Photograph: Steve Parsons/PA

The Liberal Democrat leader proved him self to be surprisingly athletic as he climbed up rope ladders, swung on Tarzan ropes and leapt from platforms high in the trees, with the media struggling after him reluctantly.

Journalists, who had been instructed to leave their phones behind in the party’s battle bus, struggled to find clever extended metaphors in the afternoon’s activities. Nick Clegg had performed a high wire act, but landed on his feet, after falling from a great height.

“Somethings are better than 2010,” Clegg said to a reporter who had been on the Liberal Democrat battle bus at the last general election.

Updated

The Guardian is working with the pollsters BritainThinks to conduct focus groups throughout the election with 60 voters in five key marginals. Each has an app to feedback what they are noticing in the campaign in real time. This is what they are saying about the non-dom row.

This graph from the Spectator shows that Miliband’s approval rating is now nearing Kinnock and Hague levels. It’s no Blair, but it’s an improvement - it’s risen by 22 points since the start of March.

Here are some more pictures of the sleeping school pupil with David Cameron earlier. They do say a picture paints a thousand words.

It’s a long, long road to Westminster.

Cameron rules out Scottish referendum

David Cameron has given an interview to The House magazine, in which he:

  • Declares that there can’t be another referendum on Scottish independence within a generation, possibly within his lifetime.
  • Makes clear that his view that Scotland’s future is “settled” would not change - even if the SNP puts a new referendum in their 2016 Holyrood manifesto.
  • Defends the BBC against Alex Salmond’s claim that the Corporation was a “national disgrace” in its referendum reporting.
  • Responds to questions about a possible second general election this year.
  • Jokes about claims that his mother had texted him to make disparaging remarks about Nick Clegg after the TV debate.
  • Categorically rules out having another child.
  • Says he is a fan of Channel 4’s Gogglebox.

I’ve picked some of the most notable quotes from the interview below.

On Scottish independence:

David Cameron shakes hands with Nicola Sturgeon earlier this year.
David Cameron shakes hands with Nicola Sturgeon earlier this year. Photograph: WPA Pool/Getty Images

I believe it’s settled. I quote Alex Salmond, settled for a generation, possibly for a lifetime, is what he said. And I’m sticking with that. I think there was a very big debate in Scotland, a very big moment, a very big turnout. But it was pretty decisive, a ten point margin is pretty decisive.

Cameron is asked if Sturgeon inserting a referendum pledge in the Holyrood manifesto for 2016 would change his stance.

That issue is settled.

On the BBC:

BBC building.
BBC building. Photograph: Andy Rain/EPA

We all have our disagreements with the BBC from time to time but the idea that it was biased over the referendum I think is completely wrong. I think Britain can pride itself that we have independent media that annoys all of us from time to time but I think the way the Nats always cry foul is their blaming the referee when they are not happy with the result.

On a second general election:

I think we want a stable outcome, and the most stable outcome is a majority Conservative government. I think there’s increasing evidence that people want the stability and the accountability frankly of a majority government, because then what you put in your manifesto is what gets put in to place in Government. So I think that’s another argument that will grow with this election. I think there will be a growing force of argument about the economy and I think there will be a growing force of argument how we need strong clear, accountable, decisive leadership.

On Nick Clegg:

Nick Clegg and David Cameron in happier times.
Nick Clegg and David Cameron in happier times. Photograph: Toby Melville/PA

The texts my mother sends me are a matter between her, me and our maker…and our telephone provider probably too.

On the Lib Dems breaking the deal on boundaries:

Don’t remind me…I am sore about that because I know - I don’t think, I know - that we had a deal: which was we deliver the AV referendum and in return we get the boundary changes.

But the boundary changes were fair because different seats should be the same size. And also it would have been good to cut the cost of politics by having 600 MPs rather than 659. So I am sore about it, but there’s no point endlessly harking back, we’ve got to win on the current boundary changes. Which we can do: 23 seats.

On having another child:

We are not having another baby.

Samantha Cameron adds:

We are definitely not. The doctors have said ‘no way, Jose’.

And finally, on Channel 4 reality show Gogglebox:

That’s a very clever programme.

Samantha Cameron:

I like the daughter in Newcastle [Scarlett]. She’s so funny, I love her, she’s hilarious, I really think she’s great.….The Siddiquis are good as well.

Updated

Labour have put out a video of Ed Miliband’s non-dom speech, complete with monumental backing music. I wonder if it was directed by Richard Curtis (click on the image and it will play).

Updated

Even the Spectator are considering the possibility of a Miliband win.

It wasn’t that Nigel didn’t seem to meet anyone who wasn’t a Ukip supporter – he didn’t actually seem to meet anyone who wasn’t a Ukip worker (with one notable exception). That’s not unusual in a modern leader, but in a self-styled man of the people, it is beginning to have the flavour of a trades description offence.

Nigel Farage on the campaign trail in Grimsby.
Nigel Farage on the campaign trail today in Grimsby. Photograph: Anna Gowthorpe/PA

Updated

For the first time since early 2015, Labour leads - albeit by one seat - in the Guardian’s latest projection of polls.

Miliband’s party is projected to win 273 seats, and Cameron’s 272.

poll

On the surface of things Lord Ashcroft’s latest batch of 10 constituency polls shows little change since he last polled these seats last year.

In fact in nine of the seats the figures show a consolidation of the previous numbers - with both parties increasing their lead where they are still ahead, and Pudsey remaining a tie.

However, there are three important things to consider here:

First, in the one seat where the result has changed, Harrow East, a three point Tory lead is now a four point Labour one.

Second, these are all seats the Conservatives won in 2010. In four of these, Labour now leads. Possibly stating the obvious, but for every one of these seats the Tories lose, they need to gain two elsewhere to make up the loss.

Third, the UKIP share had fallen significantly – by up to ten points – in nine of the ten seats polled. The fall in support for Farage’s party has been apparent in earlier Ashcroft polls and in national figures.

Good afternoon, Nadia here. I’m taking over from Andrew for the rest of the day. I’m on Twitter @nadiakhomami and I’ll be reading your comments below the line as well, so you can let me know if you think there’s anything I’ve missed.

I’ve just noticed that the tax lawyer whose verdict on banning non-dom status was used by Ed Miliband as proof the policy could raise money has said that he feels like “today’s Gillian Duffy”.

He then commented on the Torys’ attacks on Ed Balls, as well as on himself:

Here is some Twitter comment on the Ashcroft poll

That’s all from me, Andrew Sparrow, for today.

My colleague Nadia Khomami is taking over for the rest of the night.

Ukip is determined not to give up its reputation for amateurism easily. My colleague Rowena Mason has sent me this.

The Nigel Farage tour took a shambolic turn on Wednesday. He gave a public meeting for invited guests in Grimsby but would only take pre-vetted questions. The Ukip leader was then meant to turn up for a pint in a pub which had a specially renamed “Farage pint” and fish and chips in the oven waiting for him. But he never turned up, leaving the local candidate, activists, supporters (and protesters) hanging on for over an hour with no news of his whereabouts. He was then whisked away for a whirlwind visit to an ice cream parlour in Skegness.

These are the four target seats that Labour would gain, on the basis of the polling Lord Ashcroft has released this afternoon. And I’ve included a figure showing where they are on Labour’s target lists, based on a list that Lewis Baston prepared prepared for Progress early last year (pdf).

Labour gains

Stockton South (7th)

Morecambe and Lunesdale (14th)

Hove (28th)

Harrow East (52nd)

And these are the seats the Conservatives would hold, according to the Ashcroft polling. Again, I have listed where they are on Labour’s list of targets

Conservative hold

Pendle (57th)

Loughborough (51st)

Blackpool North and Clevelys (43rd)

Kingswood (41st)

Gloucester (38th)

The tenth seat, Pudsey, is tied, according to Ashcroft. Pudsey is 26th on the target list.

When Baston produced his list, he calculated that Labour needed to gain 27 seats to become the largest party, and 67 seats to have a majority, but that was before the SNP surge in Scotland made the situation much more complicated.

Ashcroft poll finds Ukip falling behind in marginal seats since last October

Lord Ashcroft has just published some new polling from 10 marginal seats which he polled last year (mostly in October).

He says the key finding is that Ukip is falling back.

The most notable movement across the board in this round of polling was a move towards the two main parties at the expense of UKIP, something I also found in the Liberal Democrat battleground last week. In this group of ten seats, the UKIP share had fallen significantly – by up to ten points – in nine of the ten seats polled.

In only one seat did I find the lead had switched between parties – Harrow East, where a three-point Conservative lead in December had become a four-point lead for Labour. Elsewhere, both Labour and the Tories had consolidated their positions in seats where they had previously led. Pudsey remained tied – though with both parties on 40%, up from 36% in October.

Updated

A reader asked what the TaxPayers’ Alliance has to say about Labour’s plan to abolish non-dom status. The TPA has posted a blog on the subject on its website and, essentially, it is sitting on the fence. It concedes that the current situation is not ideal, but it raises doubts about whether Labour’s plan would raise money and it says what is really needed is not this measure, but comprehensive tax reform.

This illustrates once again why the TaxPayers’ Alliance has called for proper, dynamic analysis to be undertaken for every fiscal policy announcement. Taxpayers deserve robust and full analysis for all proposals before they are implemented so that problems are identified without leaving them a needless bill when it’s too late.

We need comprehensive, full tax reform that makes the system simpler and fairer as well as reducing the burden on taxpayers and the economy. Our Single Income Tax published in 2012 outlines the reforms we need. Instead of tinkering with rules like this one at a time, the parties should look at the bigger picture and set out plans for a tax system for the 21st century.

There is a raft of Ashcroft polling out soon.

On the World at One David Gauke, the Conservative Treasury minister, was asked if he could justify the rule that allows people to inherit non-dom status from their father. Gauke did not even try to justify this in his reply. He just said this:

Britain’s Financial Secretary to the Treasury David Gauke speaks during an election campaign event in London April 7, 2015. REUTERS/Suzanne Plunkett

I make two points. First of all, there is always a balance that has to be struck here. The second point is that we have got a record over the last five years of dealing with abuses of the system, tax avoidance, tax evasion.

But he did say a future Conservative government would want to look at the non-dom rules as part of its general drive to crack down on tax avoidance.

Updated

Here’s the election picture of the day from Stefan Rousseau, the Press Association’s chief political photographer.

A reader points out that pupils are meant to be on holiday. A Tory aide tells me that the pupils were in school because they were attending a holiday club (which might explain why the little girls looks a bit fed up.)

The CBI has expressed reservations about Labour’s plan to abolish non-dom status.

Robert Peston, the BBC’s economics editor, has pronounced on Labour’s non-dom plan on his blog. He says ultimately the policy more more about political symbolism than revenue raising.

Here’s an extract.

So how many non-doms would stay in Britain if they are forced to pay tax on their global earnings and capital gains? Would the exchequer emerge richer or poorer from Ed Miliband’s proposed reform?

I am told by an adviser to non-doms that the older ones will tend to stay here, but the younger generation may depart.

He said however that it was impossible to assess with precision whether the costs of that exodus would outweigh the benefits of the higher tax yield from those who feel living in Britain matters more than avoiding tax.

Ed Miliband believes the net impact would be to raise several hundred million pounds a year for the Exchequer - which would be a useful sum but not one that would make a big dent in a deficit that was £90bn last year.

That said, for him it is less about the money than about the kind of society Britain should be.

Or to put it another way, this policy is probably more about political symbolism than fiscal science.

In Scotland Nicola Sturgeon’s attempt to get anti-Tory parties to promise to work together is not making much progress. But in Northern Ireland cross-party cooperation of sorts is more common. My colleague Henry McDonald has sent me this.

The widow of the first Police Service of Northern Ireland officer killed by republican paramilitaries has publicly backed the unionist unity candidate in Fermanagh/South Tyrone.

Kate Carroll has attended the launch of Ulster Unionist Tom Elliott - the sole flag bearer for unionism in the constituency currently represented by Sinn Fein’s Michelle Gildernew.

The Continuity IRA shot dead her husband Stephen in a sniper attack six years ago.

“I want to support people who aspire to peace. Hope must always triumph over evil,” she told the joint unionist gathering in Fermanagh.

Gildernew won the seat by just four votes in 2010 and despite the unionist unity pact in the border area she remains the favourite to hold it.

In another sign of intra-unionist solidarity the enterprise minister Arlene Foster also turned up to back Elliott. Foster used to be an Ulster Unionist but defected to the Democratic Unionists and some in the constituency have accused her of not enthusiastically backing her former UUP colleague.

Yet it is not all sweetness and light in the unionist family especially in North Down. The DUP has decided to stand against sitting Independent Unionist MP for the most affluent constituency in Northern Ireland - Lady Sylvia Hermon. The DUP are fielding Alex Easton, a reversal of their policy of supporting joint unionist candidates elsewhere. However the maths just don’t stack up for a DUP shock in the ‘gold coast’ constituency. In 2010 (albeit minus a DUP candidate) Lady Hermon polled more than 21,000 votes compared to her nearest rival the joint UUP-Tory Party candidate Ian Parsley on 7,000.

Updated

David Cameron reads a book to Lucy Howarth, 6, and Will Spibey, 5, during a visit to Sacred Heart RC primary school in Westhoughton near Bolton.
David Cameron reads a book to Lucy Howarth, 6, and Will Spibey, 5, during a visit to Sacred Heart RC primary school in Westhoughton near Bolton. Photograph: Kirsty Wigglesworth/AFP/Getty Images

The Green party’s new election broadcast is a toe-tapper

It depicts the Tory, Labour, Lib Dem and Ukip leaders (I think they’re supposed to be lookalikes?) as a very pale, stale and male boyband called Coalition that sing in harmony about their “shared love of austerity and fondness for fracking”.

With true adherence to international boyband rules, it even features at least one key change, and a four-way “standing from sitting” manoeuvre.

The video closes with the messages: “All over the country, people are standing up to change the tune. Voting true, not tactical.” And “We believe in the people controlling politics, not the other way round.

Natalie Bennett, leader of the Greens, said:

For many years the establishment parties have been singing from the same hymn sheet. The Westminster consensus – which sees all other parties sign up to austerity economics, privatisation of our public services and inaction on climate change – is coming to an end. The Green party is offering a real alternative to business-as-usual politics.

The party election film will be first broadcast on BBC2 tomorrow night at 17.55.

Updated

Miriam Gonzalez Durantez, Nick Clegg’s wife, has been campaigning with Lynne Featherstone in Hornsey and Wood Green today.

Featherstone claimed people on the doorstep were responding well to campaigning which said the “bits they like” of the past five years were down to the Lib Dems.

The green bits, the international bits - all of those bits come from the Lib Dems, whether it’s apprenticeships, whether it’s raising the tax threshold. It’s nice to have a platform to actually tell people about that.

Miriam Gonzalez Durantez (left), the wife of Lib Dem Nick Clegg, sits next to Lynne Featherstone, the party’s candidate for Hornsey and Wood Green
Miriam Gonzalez Durantez (left), the wife of Lib Dem Nick Clegg, sits next to Lynne Featherstone, the party’s candidate for Hornsey and Wood Green Photograph: John Stillwell/PA

My colleague Libby Brooks is with Nicola Sturgeon, the SNP leader today. She has sent me this update.

Nicola Sturgeon was visiting SNP candidates for Aberdeen’s north and south constituencies this lunchtime in the city centre.

Sturgeon is in Aberdeen ahead of tonight’s second Scottish leaders’ debate, hosted by the BBC this time and including Scottish Greens leader Patrick Harvie and Ukip’s David Coburn.

Right on cue, a group of Ukip supporters heckled Sturgeon as she began her visit, chanting “Ukip OK”, perhaps a version of the pro-union Better Together campaign’s slogan UK-OK, but were swiftly drowned out by the boos of the assembled throng of SNP activists.

Sturgeon was asked by broadcasters is she regretted mentioning the possibility of a second independence referendum at last night’s STV debate. She said she did not.

Repeating her line that the timing of another referendum would be decided by public opinion, she said: “It’s ultimately up to the Scottish people. That’s the fundamental democratic point. I can’t impose it on the people against their will.”

Updated

Lunchtime summary

  • Ed Miliband has brushed aside Tory claims that his plans to abolish non-dom status are shambolic and accused David Cameron of “defending the indefensible”. He was speaking on a morning that has seen some of the most frantic briefing and counter-briefing of the campaign, with the Conservative party resorting to various attack lines to rubbish what amounts to a major policy announcement from Labour. (See 9.37am.)
    The Tories’ best discovery was a quote from Ed Balls in January saying abolishing non-dom status could cost the Exchequer money. (See 11.21am.) But the Tories faced some embarrassment when it emerged they had selectively edited the interview to omit a relevant sentence, and Miliband insisted that Labour had found a way of abolising non-dom status that would address the concerns about lost revenue raised by Balls.
    In a substantial speech, Miliband also said that his plan was emblematic of his desire to run a country where “there is one rule for all” and that this was a quintessential British value. (See 1.15pm.)
    George Osborne described the policy as “a total shambles” and David Cameron said it showed that Labour was not capable of running the economy. But their apocalyptic rhetoric probably conceals serious nervousness about Miliband scoring a hit with voters.
    The Labour spin doctors I’ve seen this morning are notably more cheerful than their Tory equivalents, and ITV’s political editor Tom Bradby, who is no Labour stooge, has probably got it bang on.
  • The Lib Dems have denied being to blame for the leak of a Scotland Office memo claiming Nicola Sturgeon told the French ambassador she wanted Cameron to win the election. The Scottish secretary is a Lib Dem, Alistair Carmichael, and in an interview in the Independent Cameron has hinted the Lib Dems were to blame. In response, Nick Clegg has dismissed this as “very silly”. He told reporters today:

It is really very silly - it is election time - for David Cameron to start pointing fingers like that. Alistair Carmichael’s been absolutely clear - of course he didn’t leak them. Of course leaks are wrong and they should be taken seriously and I condemn them and it’s quite right it is now being looked into.

And a party spokesperson said: “The leak was not from a Liberal Democrat and that is the end of the matter.” Sturgeon and the French ambassador have both dismissed the claim that she said she was hoping for a Cameron victory.

Updated

Labour best party for issues that matter to Christians, poll suggests

The Labour party is viewed as the most trusted to deliver on the top three priority areas for practising Christians, according to a new survey, the Press Association reports.

Ed Miliband’s party was seen as the most dependable on managing the NHS, 33% compared to 22% for the Conservatives; making sure that the benefits of economic growth are felt by all, 33% against 17% for the Conservatives, and making the welfare system fairer, 33% compared to 19% for the Conservatives.

But the Conservative Party polled significantly ahead on promoting UK economic growth, 50% to Labour’s 13%, according to a ComRes poll for Premier Christian Radio.

The Tories also polled in front on the issues of reducing crime and anti-social behaviour, 35% to Labour’s 13%; maintaining Britain’s overseas aid budget, 28% to Labour’s 20%, and improving the education system, 26% to Labour’s 22%.

Ukip was found to be the most trusted party to control immigration 28% compared to 20% for the Tories.

Labour leader Ed Miliband walks with students after delivering a speech at Warwick University.
Labour leader Ed Miliband walks with students after delivering a speech at Warwick University. Photograph: Dan Kitwood/Getty Images

Updated

David Cameron talks to children during a visit to Sacred Heart RC primary school in Westhoughton near Bolton
David Cameron talks to children during a visit to Sacred Heart RC primary school in Westhoughton near Bolton Photograph: Reuters

Updated

The Press Association has filed this report of the grand arrival in Margate of Al Murray, whose pub landlord character is taking on Nigel Farage for the seat of South Thanet.

Comic Al Murray, aka the Pub Landlord, arrives at the offices of Thanet district council in Margate, Kent, to hand in his nomination papers. He is standing in the South Thanet seat against Ukip leader Nigel Farage.
Comic Al Murray, aka the Pub Landlord, arrives at the offices of Thanet district council in Margate, Kent, to hand in his nomination papers. He is standing in the South Thanet seat against Ukip leader Nigel Farage. Photograph: Gareth Fuller/PA

The comedian and parliamentary hopeful Al Murray has arrived in Margate to hand in his general election nomination papers – in a fire engine converted into a pub.

Murray, in his guise as the Pub Landlord, pulled frothy pints from beer taps on the side of the old fire engine outside Thanet district council’s offices in Kent.

The 46-year-old comic posed for pictures beside the former emergency vehicle, which was emblazoned with the slogan Vote Guv For Guv’norment.

Murray then went inside to hand over papers so he can stand for his Free United Kingdom Party (FUKP) against Ukip leader Nigel Farage in South Thanet.

Afterwards, Murray said: “This is the most important general election since the last one. There is a state of national emergency. I wanted to emphasise that with a fire engine - a fire engine that pours beer.”

Updated

In a First thoughts article for Comment is free, Polly Toynbee says Ed Miliband’s proposal to scrap non-dom status is a totemic policy.

Ed Miliband has taken a stand against outrageous excess in company cartels and top pay. The non-dom status is so anomalous and unjust that promising its abolition creates a useful trap for the Tories: will they oppose this colonial perk that passes only through the male line? Michael Gove – always quick on the draw and often wrong – jumped straight into the pit when he warned of “a flight of talent” yesterday. The FT’s Lombard column gets it right: “Like a truffle wrapped in gold leaf, non-dom status is nice to have, but hard to justify” – adding a sage warning: “Organised capital needs to pick its battles. The non-dom wheeze should not even make the long list.”

Miliband's speech and Q&A

Here are the key points from Ed Miliband’s non-dom speech and Q&A.

  • Miliband said that Labour had found a way of abolising non-dom status that would address the concerns about lost revenue raised by Ed Balls in an interview in January. When asked about Balls’ comment in the Q&A, he replied:

The truth is that we have found a way to do this which independent experts say is actually going to raise money. You’ve seen many people out this morning saying it is going to raise at least hundreds of millions of pounds, and it is the right thing to do.

  • He said that people across the political spectrum, and high earners as well as low earners, would support Labour’s plan to get rid of non-dom status.
  • He said that Tory claims about the plan were “totally contradictory”.

This morning [David Cameron and George Osborne] have been advancing a whole set of separate and totally contradictory arguments.

That our proposals are: catastrophic because people will leave the country, cosmetic because they are not a big enough change and unnecessary because it is happening anyway.

They can’t make up their mind.

But my challenge to the prime minister and chancellor is simple: stop defending the indefensible and abolish non-dom status.

  • Miliband said that getting everyone to play by the same rules was a quintessential British value. This is what he said in his speech.

Ask any member of the public, and almost all will say that a very British value is that we should all play by the rules.

Play fair, do the right thing, not take others for a ride.

It is a very British belief in responsibility.

This is a value that runs to our core as a party.

And he made the same point in his Q&A.

The most important point of all is that we are going to run a country where there is one rule for all. And that is a basic intuition of the British people and it is a basic intuition of the next Labour government.

  • He said support for business should not be confused with a belief that wealth only flows from the top.

What we should not do as a country is confuse our correct belief in enterprise and wealth creation and allow it to become distorted into something else.

The view that wealth only flows from a few at the top

And those people should be allowed to operate under different rules.

He said proper regulation was not anti-business, but pro-business.

  • He said the election was so close it could be decided by “a few hundred votes in a few dozen constituencies.”
  • He said the Conservative party was a “virtual party”.

They exist as a Lynton Crosby hologram. But they don’t exist in reality. Because the problem is they can’t find people to knock on doors for them.

Cameron claims Labour's non-dom stance show they're not capable of running the economy

David Cameron claims Labour’s stance on non-doms shows they are not fit to run the economy. This is what he said on a visit to a school in Bolton West.

What we have seen from Labour this morning is frankly pretty chaotic - on the one hand saying they want of get rid of non-dom status and on the other saying that if they did so it would cost the country money.

This goes to a bigger issue, which is when you see such confusion over a policy like this are these people really capable or competent of running an economy? I think people will conclude no, they are not.

Updated

Clegg says maybe non-dom status should be abolished in the future

Nick Clegg has also been commenting on Labour’s plans to get rid of non-dom status. As Frances Perraudin reports, he seems to be trying to adopt a position mid-way between Labour and the Tories. Clegg said “maybe” non-dom status should be abolished - at some point in the future. Here’s the quote.

It appears, now, we hear from Ed Balls that they are not proposing a ban at all, as he himself conceded earlier in the year if you did that you could lose a lot of money.

It’s like so much in life, you’ve just got to strike the right balance. I want an open economy, but not open to abuse. That’s why Danny Alexander has increased the amount of money, very significantly, that non-doms pay.

It’s why of course we should tighten up the rules where they are unjustified. I don’t think it makes any sense that non-doms can pass on non-dom status as a form of inheritance.

Let’s look at maybe ending non-dom status after a certain period of time.

But it’s about striking the right balance, making sure we remain open to business but aren’t open to abuse.

Nick Clegg has just been visiting a racing car wheel manufacturer in Chippenham, the marginal constituency of Lib Dem Duncan Hames, which is a Conservative party target seat. It was the first constituency visited by Cameron after he visited the Queen at the start of the formal general election campaign.

Clegg was asked why an election campaign leaflet has no mention of the Liberal Democrats or the party’s leadership.

“I think Duncan is quite rightly standing on his local record as an outstanding local MP who had delivered a lot for the area,” said Clegg.

He was asked whether he thought Liberal Democrat MPs were ashamed of the party. “What a silly question,” Clegg retorted. “I wouldn’t be here if Duncan did not want to campaign as a Liberal Democrat.”

“It’s not a state secret that Duncan Hames is a Liberal Democrat. It will say it on the ballot paper, Duncan Hames for the Liberal Democrats. Don’t worry. There’s no secret about this.

“You’ve shown me one leaflet where he’s quite rightly highlighted his achievements as a local champion and someone who knows this area much better than his rivals and has done a great deal for the local area.”

Nick Clegg with local candidate Duncan Hames (right), during his visit to Dymag, a specialist manufacturer of high performance racing wheels
Nick Clegg with local candidate Duncan Hames (right), during his visit to Dymag, a specialist manufacturer of high performance racing wheels Photograph: Steve Parsons/PA

When it comes to tax avoidance the polling is quite clear.

Here are some numbers from February:

From ICM: 52% of voters agreed that even less mercy should be shown to the rich avoiding their dues than to dishonest social security claimants. 67% said at the time that big business was so close to politics that no government would stop tax dodging.

From YouGov: 59 per cent of people think it is “unacceptable” to legally avoid tax, compared to only 32 per cent who think it is reasonable.

Also from YouGov: 65% think the current coalition government has done badly at reducing tax avoidance by companies. 55% believe government could make a proper effort to reduce tax avoidance, opposed to 30% who believe not much can be done to stop tax avoidance in a globalised world.

The Tories have been in touch to point out that Jolyon Maugham, the independent tax expert that Labour has been citing (see 11.45am), is a Labour party member. (But, as I recall, they did not seem to mind when it transpired that a third of the business figures who signed the pro-Tory Telegraph letter were Tory donors.)

Have Labour scored a hit with the non-dom tax pledge?

Guardian columnists Jonathan Freedland and Hugh Muir discuss Labour’s proposal to scrap non-dom status and how it will play with voters

Meanwhile …

Liberal Democrat leader Nick Clegg visits a wheel plant in Chippenham, Wiltshire, with local candidate Duncan Hames.
Liberal Democrat leader Nick Clegg visits a wheel plant in Chippenham, Wiltshire, with local candidate Duncan Hames. Photograph: Steve Parsons/PA

Balls accuses Tories of trying to 'deliberately mislead' voters over what he said about non-doms

In a post on his blog Ed Balls has accused the Tories of trying to “deliberately mislead” people over what he said about abolishing non-dom status. (See 11.21am.)

  • Balls accused the Tories of trying to “deliberately mislead” people.

The Tories have edited my words from January in an attempt to deliberately mislead people because they can’t defend their own refusal to act on tax avoidance. They have dropped the part of my interview where on non-domicile rules I say “I think we can be tougher and we should be and we will”.

That is exactly what we have proposed – ending a situation where people permanently living in the UK year after year can claim non-domicile status to reduce their tax bills and play by different rules to everyone else.

  • He said that the exemptions allowed in Labour policy had addressed the problem that he highlighted in January.

Under our plans, no-one living here ‎in the UK will be able to shelter worldwide income from tax because their father was born abroad or they buy an overseas grave plot.

But our plans, which we were working on in January, do allow for temporary residence for people genuinely here for a temporary period, for example people who are here for two or three years at university. Not to have a short-term option would mean students or business visitors being deterred from coming to our country.

As a result, independent experts have said that the changes we are proposing today – abolishing non-dom status while allowing for genuine temporary residence – will raise revenue.

Osborne describes Labour's non-dom policy as 'a total shambles'

George Osborne, the Conservative chancellor, has just given an interview to BBC News resuming his attack on Labour’s plan to abolish non-dom status. He said the policy was “a total shambles”.

What you’ve seen from the opposition today is classic policy making from an opposition that has no economic credibility and as a result the policy has unravelled this morning. You have Ed Balls himself saying that it would cost Britain money. And then when you look at the small print of the policy you see that a majority of the non-doms would not be affected at all. So the headlines are misleading. It is a classic example of the economic chaos and confusion you get with Ed Miliband.

And our approach has been to increase the levy on non-doms. That’s made sure we’ve raised over £1bn in tax for this country and we don’t put at risk the jobs in Britain that depend on foreign investment.

George Osborne
George Osborne Photograph: BBC News

Miliband says Labour has designed non-dom abolition policy to avoid it losing money

I will post a summary of the speech and Q&A shortly.

But this is the freshest line.

  • Miliband dismissed claims that a quote from Ed Balls in January undermined Labour’s pledge to get rid of non-dom status. Since January the party had found a way to abolish it what would not lose money, he said. Independent experts confirmed that, he went on. (He seemed to be referring to Jolyon Maugham - see 8.43am.)

UPDATE: Here an audioBoom of the quote.

Updated

Ed Miliband delivers a speech at Warwick University today.
Ed Miliband delivers a speech at Warwick University today. Photograph: Dan Kitwood/Getty Images

Milband ends with a final word for the Labour supporters in the audience.

It will be a close election, he says. It may came down to a few hundred votes in a few dozen constituencies. The Conservative party is a virtual party. It is a Lynton Crosby hologram. People do not want to knock on doors for the Conservatives. But they do want to knock on doors for Labour.

Change is too important to be left to politicians. It happens because people make them happen, he says.

And that’s it.

Updated

Miliband says the British people are fed up with a status quo that allows things like the non-dom rule.

As for people threatening to leave the country, we have heard all these arguments before. Some people even threatened to leave the country when Tony Blair became prime minister. It is what people with special privilege say when they want to carry on enjoying those privileges.

He cannot justify the non-dom rule. And he is going to run a country where there is one rule for all.

That will be a basic intuition of a Labour government, he says.

Q: If abolishing non-dom status did not raise money, would you still do it? Are you doing it for moral reasons, or revenue raising reasons?

Miliband says both arguments are right. He does not accept that it won’t raise money. But abolishing the rule is the right thing do to.

How can it be right for people to live here for 20 or 30 years and not pay tax, he asks?

People abroad ask how it can be right for Britain not to make everyone play by the same rules.

Miliband

Updated

Q: Are we supposed to believe Ed Balls has changed his mind in three months? And is this about punishing the rich?

Miliband says independent experts say this will raise hundreds of millions of pounds. Even the Tories are not claiming it won’t raise money.

As for punishing the rich, this is about what kind of country you want to be. If people live here, and enjoy public services, they should pay tax.

Miliband's Q&A

Miliband is now taking questions.

Q: Three months ago Ed Balls said abolishing non-dom status would cost the Exchequer money. Do you agree with that?

Miliband says Labour has found a way of abolishing non-dom status that will raise money. Independent experts have said they could raise hundreds of millions of pounds.

He says he has a different view to the Tories. They believe in looking after those at the top. He wants to tackle tax avoidance.

Miliband explains his plan to get rid of non-dom status

Back to the Ed Miliband speech, and he has explained his plans to get rid of non-dom status.

Non-doms means non-domiciled.

But these are people who live here, like you and me, work here, like you and me, are permanently settled here, like you and me, and even were brought up here, like you and me, but just aren’t required to pay taxes like you and me.

They don’t pay UK taxes on the income they receive abroad.

They take advantage of an arcane, 200 year-old loophole.

Believe it or not, it has its origins in colonial settlers who made their fortunes overseas and then wanted to be protected on taxes on the incomes they were receiving in the colonies.

It is time to end all of these years of history.

And let me explain why.

There are now 116,000 non-doms.

It is costing at least hundreds of millions of pounds to our country.

And it cannot be justified.

It makes Britain an offshore tax haven for a few.

And get this:

What is the proof you need to show you are not “domiciled” here?

What are the kinds of test that are applied?

It is fair to say they are not very rigorous.

You can even use the most flimsy evidence to justify your status.

If your father wasn’t born here you can qualify, even if you were.

So old-fashioned are these rules they don’t think it’s even relevant where your mother was born.

But that’s not the only get-out clause.

There are other even weaker criteria.

Whether you own property abroad.

Whether you have a bank account overseas.

Whether you own a burial plot abroad.

And even whether you subscribe to an overseas newspaper.

Updated

My colleague Nick Watt points out that the Conservatives left out an important phrase from Ed Balls when they released a transcript of what Balls said in January about abolishing non-dom status potentially costing the Exchequer money. (See 10.29am.)

As the Tories said, Balls said this:

I think that it is important that you make sure the non-dom rules work in a fair way. I think they were too lax in the past. Both the last Labour government and this Conservative government have tightened them up. That is something I will continue to look at. I think if you abolish the whole status then probably it ends up costing Britain money because there will be some people who will then leave the country.

But Balls also added at the end:

But I think we can be tougher and we should be and we will.

Murphy 'mis-spoke' over minimum wage pledge

The Guardian’s Scotland correspondent, Severin Carrell, has filed this analysis of the Scottish Labour leader’s minimum wage pledge last night:

In his first, crucial outing in a televised leader’s debate on STV last night, Jim Murphy appears to have pledged a much higher minimum wage, telling voters Labour “plans to abolish exploitative zero hours contracts, increasing the minimum wage to at least £8.50 an hour.”

Except he was wrong. Labour policy is to increase the minimum rate of pay by more than £8 an hour - it has yet to specify how much more. Murphy’s staff confirmed he mis-spoke.

But why? Perhaps because subconsciously Murphy wants to match the Scottish National party’s counter offer of an £8.70 minimum wage. And the Scottish Green party are outbidding them both with a £10 minimum.

Jim Murphy speaks during the STV debate last night.
Jim Murphy speaks during the STV debate last night. Photograph: Jeff J Mitchell/Getty Images

John Swinney, the SNP’s finance secretary at Holyrood, is in Perth today campaigning on the SNP’s offer, offering that higher minimum and a vaguer “crackdown on zero hours contracts”.

With Nicola Sturgeon repeating in the STV debate that a large group of SNP MPs would keep Labour honest and true at Westminster, Swinney said: “We can do things better in Scotland and we should have the opportunity to do so – but in the meantime, the SNP will ensure that progressive politics are put firmly on Westminster’s agenda and will ensure that working people are given the fair deal they deserve.”

A Scottish Labour official says Murphy used the correct £8 an hour minimum wage figure several times later during the STV debate, insisting “it was just a slip of the tongue, once in a two hour debate.” He said all Scottish Labour’s supporting graphics and leaflets made it clear too.

Updated

Miliband says the idea that wealth creation is good should not lead to the belief that whatever benefits the wealthy must be good.

Look at what happened during the banking crash, he says. Letting the banks do what they wanted turned out to be a mistake. There should have been more regulation.

The same argument applies to the energy sector. Miliband says he is in favour of a successful energy market. But energy companies should not get special treatment. They should follow the same rules as other firms.

Miliband says in the 1970s it appeared that wealth creation was frowned upon.

That was wrong, he says. There will be no going back to that era under Labour under his leadership.

Ed Miliband's speech on abolishing non-dom status

Ed Miliband is delivering his speech at the University of Warwick on getting rid of non-dom status.

He says the idea that everyone should play by the same rules is a key British value.

Farage and Essex take boat trip in Grimsby

New best friends Nigel Farage and Joey Essex have been on a boat trip together and then to a fish market – although there was no time to see any fish.

Two men on a boat.
Two men on a boat. Photograph: Philip Oldham/Rex/Shutterstock


Essex explained to the Ukip leader why he was there: “Basically I don’t really understand much about political life and I’m trying to show the youth it’s good to vote.”

Farage said: “What I’m going to try do is give you my opinions, which you’ll either love or hate.”

Essex asked: “Why are we in Grimsby?”

The Ukip leader replied: “It’s symbolic of what’s gone wrong. If we came here 40 years ago there were thousands of men working here and a massive trawler fleet, it was the biggest fishing port in the country.

“We joined the European Union and now have to share all our fish with all the other countries. And what we’re saying is let’s take our country and our territorial waters back, let’s get our fishing industry back.”

In response, Essex said: “Sick.”

When Farage added that he wanted a bigger British fishing industry, Essex said: “Wicked.”

Essex talked to Farage about working at Billingsgate fish market. Asked what he thought of Farage, Essex said: “He’s a really, really reem guy.”

Farage said: “I think that’s good, I’m not sure. Reem? Interesting. What does that mean?”

Essex explained: “It means cool, wicked, sick.”

Updated

And here are two articles on the non-dom issue worth reading.

This suggestion by George Osborne is the action of a desperate man. He knows he cannot abandon the non-dom rule because far too many of his party donors rely on it. But it’s the claim that Labour is not abolishing the rule that is absurd.

Although non-doms are not required to pay tax on earnings made outside the UK, that’s not the end of it. They can also reduce the tax on their UK earnings, and here’s how it can happen.

A non-dom simply needs to say that his or her UK company is managed by a board of directors outside the UK and then make a charge to the company for “management services”. This reduces the pre-tax profit of the company and so reduces its corporation tax bill.

The money transferred offshore for “management services” is tax free and can be used to fund the non-dom lifestyle abroad – the yachts, planes and mansions.

The non-dom situation is very relevant to business owners like me in the UK because we find ourselves at a distinct disadvantage when competing with businesses owned by non-doms. Normal UK business owners pay taxes on all earnings before paying for a new car or a family holiday, unlike nondoms, so there is less money available to pump back into the future of their businesses.

This is the video of Ed Balls talking to BBC Radio Leeds reporter Daragh Corcoran in January, in which he says: “I think if you abolish the whole [non-dom] status then probably it ends up costing Britain money because there will be some people that then leave the country.”

The Tories are flogging this hard as a sign of Labour’s incoherence.

(NB: It looks like an image, but click it and it will play – I promise. And skip to 6m38secs)

Source: BBC Radio Leeds

Updated

Labour's plan to abolish non-dom status - Verdict from the Twitter commentariat

Here is some Twitter comment from political journalists on Labour’s plan to abolish non-dom status, and the Conservative reaction to it.

From the Economist’s Jeremy Cliffe

From Iain Martin

From the Independent on Sunday’s John Rentoul

From Newsnight’s Duncan Weldon

From the Spectator’s James Forsyth

From the Mail’s Tom McTague

Updated

As Patrick Wintour said in his story about the Labour non-dom plan in the Guardian this morning, the Conservative MP Richard Bacon had a glorious rant about the iniquity of the non-dom rules at the public accounts committee last month. It is worth watching, so here it is.

Boris Johnson says Labour's non-dom policy shows it is anti-business

Boris Johnson, the Conservative mayor of London and parliamentary candidate, has said the Labour non-dom policy shows the party is anti-business.

The Tories have already got that Ed Balls quote (see 10.29am) on a Twitter graphic.

IoD criticises Labour's plan to abolish non-dom status

Simon Walker, director general of the Institute of Directors, has criticised Labour’s plan to abolish non-dom status. He put out this statement.

Attacking non-doms is a shrewd political move, but the economics of the proposed reforms are unconvincing. It’s very unclear what additional revenue would be raised, but the UK’s international reputation would be put at risk. This country has benefited enormously from attracting some of the most successful businesses and entrepreneurs in the world, with the previous Labour government recognising the benefits of an internationally competitive tax system.

While there may be little public sympathy for those who stand to be affected by reforms to non-dom status, the truth is that these things matter. There is a serious risk that large numbers of the international financial community, who have headquartered themselves in London at least in part because of our tax regime, will now exit the country. Politicians at the height of an election campaign may consider this a price worth paying, but we do not.

The Tories have also unearthed a video of Ed Balls saying in January this year that, if the government were to abolish non-dom status altogether, it would probably cost the Exchequer money.

Here’s the key quote.

I think it is important you make sure the non-dom rules work in a fair way. I think they were too lax in the past. Both the last Labour government and this Conservative government have tightened them up. That’s something I’ll continue to look at. I think if you abolish the whole status then probably it ends up costing Britain money because there will be some people that then leave the country.

Updated

Rob Wilson, the Conservative MP for Reading East until parliament was dissolved, is pointing out that in 2007, when Ed Balls was a Treasury minister, he replied to a written ministerial question saying that it was impossible to know how much non-doms were costing the Exchequer and that most non-doms spent no more than five years in the UK. Here’s an extract.

Rob Wilson.
Rob Wilson.

Estimates of the tax foregone in the UK as a consequence of the use of the remittance basis by those not domiciled in the UK are not routinely made. Information is not held on overseas income and gains that do not give rise to a tax liability in the UK.

Information on the average length of residence is not routinely collected. A small sample survey in 2004 suggested that the majority of non-domiciled individuals who had already left the UK spent no more than five years here.


Updated

Nigel Farage meets Joey Essex in Grimsby – the video

Rowena Mason captured the great meeting of minds on her phone. The reality star kicks off by telling the Ukip leader “I love your jacket” before asking whether London’s Billingsgate fish market (where his relatives worked) “was the same as Grimsby”.

Essex seems flabbergasted by Farage’s revelations that the EU stops British fishermen catching cod.

This could be a game changer.

Updated

Today's Guardian seat projection - Tories 273, Labour 272

Here’s today’s Guardian seat projection.

Guardian seat projection
Guardian seat projection

If Labour get into power, this outfit will be in difficulty.

Natalie Bennett, the Green party leader, has welcomed Labour’s proposal to abolish non-dom status. But she said the Greens would go further.

Natalie Bennet during last week’s leaders’ debate.
Natalie Bennet during last week’s leaders’ debate.

The planned Labour changes to non-dom status can’t come a moment too soon but this change alone is only one small step in tackling the epidemic of tax-dodging that has damaged government revenue and meant the richest don’t pay their fair share.

The Green party would go further: we’d introduce a tax-dodging bill in the first 100 days of the parliament, and we’d levy a wealth tax to ensure that assets as well as income are considered when redistributing resources.

The last four decades have seen wealth accumulate at the top of society while those at the bottom struggle to get by. We need bold policies to ensure that inequality, which even organisations like the IMF and the World Bank identify as an economic threat, is tackled.

Updated

Labour HQ has sent me a short briefing note rejecting Tory suggestions that the non-dom policy just amounts to “tinkering around the edges”. (See 7.57am and 9.37am.) It is relatively short, so I will quote it in full.

· We are abolishing the non-dom rules, which aren’t just about residence but are being used for tax avoidance.

· No-one who is born and brought up in the UK will be able to avoid tax on their income from abroad.

· No-one who leaves the UK for a temporary period and then comes back will be able to avoid tax on their income from abroad.

· Not a single one of the current non-doms who stay in the UK for many years and pay a charge to keep their offshore income out of UK tax will be able to continue as a non-dom.

· Only those who genuinely come on a temporary basis, for a few years, will be just liable for tax on their UK income. This puts us in line with other countries.

On a lighter note, my colleague Rowena Mason is with Nigel Farage, who is meeting Joey Essex (who for some peculiar reason is of interest to the young people at HQ). For all his man of the people act, it seems there are some elements of popular culture that remain a mystery to him.

And here is some more from the encounter.

Nicky Morgan reveals Tory confusion over non-dom policy - Analysis

One sign of a good policy announcement is when the opposition do not know how to react to it. If they welcome an announcement, it no longer provides political capital. If they oppose it, it’s normally because they think it will be unpopular, at least with their constituency. But if they don’t know what to say, you’re probably onto something.

On that basis Labour’s announcement about abolishing non-dom status has got off to a very good start, because the Tories are all over the place on it. This was illustrated by the initial response we got from George Osborne (see 7.57am), which was an exercise in hedging. Either the policy was going to cost hundreds of millions, or it was a cosmetic “tinkering around the edges”. Osborne could not decide.

Nicky Morgan.
Nicky Morgan.

About an hour later Nicky Morgan, the Conservative education secretary, and a former Treasury minister, was asked about this by James Naughtie on the Today programme. She tried at least three different lines.

First, she tried the line that this was just “tinkering around the edges” (as Osborne put it).

Well, my reaction is, of course, once you look at the detail, they are not proposing to abolish non-dom status. They are talking about potentially changing the length of time somebody will be able to be here and be a non-dom.

She was referring to the fact that Ed Balls confirmed that there would be exemptions. (See 8.57am.)

Then, when James Naughtie said that the policy still amounted to a significant tightening of the rules, she tried the second approach: that the coalition had done this already.

We have already tightened the rules in this parliament and we are very clear – the Conservative party, George Osborne and the Treasury have been very, very clear – that actually people who are based here should pay their taxes here.

When Naughtie pointed out that lots of people based here don’t pay taxes here, she resorted to response number 3: that Labour did not do this when they were in power. (This is always a relatively weak argument, deployed when the Conservatives or Lib Dems are running out of better attack lines.)

They’ve had 13 years in which do tackle this, and they haven’t done it.

Morgan then said people should be paying taxes here.

I don’t think anyone would disagree that people should be paying taxes here because those taxes are essential to pay for exactly what we’ve been discussing.

This gave Naughtie an opening, because it allowed him to try to get her to say whether or not she thought non-doms should be paying tax on their overseas earnings. Morgan evaded the question quite skilfully, but it was obvious to anyone listening that she could not answer. Why? Because if she said yes, she would be endorsing the Labour position. And if she said no, she would be endorsing tax dodging. The exchange is worth quoting in full.

JN: Well, hang on, are you saying no one would disagree that people who are living here with non-dom status should be paying taxes? Is that what you’re saying?

NM: Well, I think that’s exactly what we have said, both individuals and corporates. We have increased the non-dom levy.

JN: The levy is one thing. And the level at which it is set. Paying the tax is another. Are you saying they should pay the tax? Because that’s not your government’s policy.

NM: Well, at the Treasury we have clawed back £5bn in this parliament, a crackdown on aggressive tax avoidance and tax evasion ... Foreigners are now paying more in stamp duty, in the non-dom levy.

JN: That’s a different issue.

NM: I think it’s overall the same issue, which is that people who are based her should pay their taxes here, and that’s exactly why the diverted profits tax, which we saw come into force last week [was introduced]. That’s exactly what we have done in this parliament.

JN: Are you saying that you would like to see people with non-dom status paying tax in this country on their overseas earnings?

NM: I think we can have the debate about it.

JN: No, I’m just asking you, would you like that to happen?

NM: What the Labour party are not being clear about today is whether they are intending to abolish non-dom status or simply change or consult on the length of time that people for which people would be here.

JN: I’m just asking you would you like to see non-doms paying tax on their overseas earnings or not?

NM: As I say, that’s why we have increased the non-dom levy in this parliament.

JN: Yes or no?

NM: Non-doms are now paying more in this parliament as a result of the Conservative-led government policies over the course of the past five years. I think that is the right thing to happen.

At that point Naughtie ran out of time.

Updated

Poll of pollsters

The Guardian’s data editor, Alberto Nardelli, has interviewed leading pollsters at every major polling company to give their predictions for the election – and most say Labour currently has the better hand.

The pollsters: Michelle Harrison, Martin Boon, Damian Lyons, Adam Drummond, Ben Page, Joe Twyman, Andrew Hawkins, Laurence Stellings
The pollsters: Michelle Harrison, Martin Boon, Damian Lyons, Adam Drummond, Ben Page, Joe Twyman, Andrew Hawkins, Laurence Stellings

Adam Drummond, Opinium: “Short of an enormous game-changing gaffe it’s hard to think of anything that could really swing this one way or the other. All of the big events we have seen so far, the budget, the various TV debates, etc, have barely moved the numbers at all. The last major game-changer was the SNP surge which came at the culmination of a three-year referendum campaign. I doubt either party has anything of similar magnitude planned before May!”

Updated

Balls says visitors will be exempt from non-dom retain - but only if they leave after 2 or 3 years

In his Today interview Ed Balls confirmed that Labour would retain non-dom status for people staying in the UK for a short period of time. But anyone in the UK for longer than about three years would not qualify, he said.

What we will do in the future is if people are coming here temporarily to work or to study, then we’ll allow a short period, I think five years is probably too long.

I’m thinking more the length of a normal postgraduate or university degree, say two to three years.

Why Financial Times said non-dom status should be abolished

Earlier this month the Financial Times published an editorial (subscription) saying non-dom status should be abolished. Here’s an extract.

Both main political parties have recognised the indefensibility of the regime. But rather than abolish it, they have sought to raise its cost. Annual charges of £30,000 are levied on people who have been in the UK for more than seven years, rising to £50,000 (soon to be £60,000) for those with over 12 years’ residence. But while these have cut the take-up, they have not dealt with the intrinsic unfairness.

Britain should sweep away the archaism that allows people to claim a domicile that differs from nationality or residence. Few other civilised countries feel the need to offer such privileges to the wealthy. Liability to taxation should be solely based on residence. There can still be a grace period for foreign nationals posted temporarily to the UK before they are obliged to pay British tax.

More than two centuries after the introduction of income tax by Mr Pitt, his successors should end the egregious situation where the wealthiest enjoy the privileges of UK residency without paying their fair dues to the exchequer. The anomaly of non-dom status cannot be defended. It should be scrapped.

Many years ago Ed Balls was himself an FT leader writer.

But the editorial provoked this letter from Mark Davies, a tax adviser.

Collectively non-dom taxpayers paid approximately £8.27bn of income tax and NI contributions in 2012-13. Of those who claimed the remittance basis, on average they paid tax of £132,762 per person. This means that every non-dom claiming the remittance basis contributes on average 25 times more to the Treasury than the average UK taxpayer.

On these figures, the UK should encourage non-dom status, not scrap it.

Ed Balls points to an audience member while making a speech in Leeds on Monday.
Ed Balls points to an audience member while making a speech in Leeds on Monday. Photograph: Andrew Yates/Reuters

On the Today programme earlier Ed Balls quoted approvingly a blog written today by the tax barrister Jolyon Maugham estimating how much Labour’s plans to abolish non-dom status could raise.

Here’s Maugham’s conclusion.

If I proceed from the above and stick a finger in the air – an exercise that you’ll have to take it from me is not so dissimilar to that which Treasury does when it forecasts the effects of tax measures – where do I get to in terms of yield? I’m not an economist – and the data is poor. But my instinct is that the stage one theoretical yield figures will tend towards the top end – towards the £4bn end – of the spectrum. But I also think 25% is rather low as a behavioural effect: 50% or even more might well be more realistic, depending on the detail of Labour’s measures. But that would still leave a yield well north of £1bn.

Updated

Morning. I’m taking over now from Mark.

Here are today’s YouGov polling figures.

YouGov poll
YouGov poll Photograph: YouGov

Gove on Scotland, non-doms and the whereabouts of the “big society”

Michael Gove, the “Minister for Newsnight” as referenced by Evan Davis, was on the BBC programme last night talking about non-doms, Scotland and the “big society” (remember that?).

The Tory chief whip and former education secretary said he would need to wait to see the details of Labour’s plan, but warned it was unclear whether it would raise any more money for the Treasury and that it could drive people out of the country.

I think the first thing to ask is, will this actually contribute more money to the Exchequer? There are some suggestions that this could lead to a flight of talent and a flight of cash from this country and the Exchequer could be worse off. Let’s see.

Gove was also pressed on Scotland’s electoral map and on whether he would rather Labour win Scottish seats or the SNP. He said he would rather see Labour do better , as they are a party committed to retaining the union. But he described a Labour-SNP coalition – with Ed Miliband in Downing St and Nicola Sturgeon “driving him further to the left” – as a “lethal cocktail”.

He also confirmed long-held suspicions that the Conservative “big society” has been dropped like a bad penny. Though only the phrase, not the essence, because “the words are now concrete realities,” he said.

Lib Dems say their plans would raise an extra £130m from non-doms

Some quick non-dom reaction, too, from the Liberal Democrats, with Danny Alexander, chief secretary to the Treasury, commenting:

Labour had 13 years in government to make rich non-doms pay their share, yet failed spectacularly to do anything about it.

Non-dom numbers exploded under Tony Blair and Gordon Brown, more than doubling when Ed Balls was an adviser in the Treasury.

He also said the Lib Dems wanted to raise an extra £130m by tightening the rules for non-doms.

We came down hard on those who stayed in the UK for long periods without paying their share - increasing charges on non-doms year-on-year since 2010. Labour used to allow non-doms to sit in the House of Lords, Lib Dems stopped that.

In the next parliament we want to go further by radically reforming the rules and significantly increasing the charges for non-doms to secure an additional £130m for the public purse.

The key tests are what maximises revenue for the exchequer and best supports our economic recovery.

Updated

Osborne criticises Labour’s plans to abolish non-dom status

Ed Balls
Ed Balls

Labour’s shadow chancellor Ed Balls has just been talking to the Today programme about the party’s non-doms policy. He says it could raise “over a billion”. Very rich people are already paying hundreds of millions in fees to avoid paying tax on their overseas incomes, he says, “but we know they could be paying significantly more”.

These rules are ridiculous. They were introduced in the period of the Napoleonic wars to allow people who were earning money in the colonies not to pay tax in the UK.

He said the party had yet to “consult on the details” on giving a short-term exemption to business visitors to Britain and students, for example, perhaps of two to three years.

Asked if the policy was anti-business, Balls said most business people would in fact back the move.

Most people in business play by the rules, pay their tax, they are not on huge incomes, and they are frustrated when a small minority are not playing by the same rules.

But the Tories have already hit back at the policy, with chancellor George Osborne issuing a statement saying “The small print of Labour’s policy makes clear that they are not actually abolishing non-dom status.”

Either they are going to abolish non-dom status altogether which would cost our country hundreds of millions of pounds in lost tax revenues and lost investment – the reason they did nothing on this during thirteen years in office.

Or they are just tinkering around the edges and making small adjustments to the rules on how long people can be non-dom.

He said the Tories would raise £5 billion during the next parliament “by continuing to crack down on tax avoidance and evasion, including abuses of the non-dom rules”.

The Guardian’s political editor Patrick Wintour has posted a link to a blog mentioned by Balls in his interview.

Updated

What the Conservatives wanted to talk about today was education, and David Cameron will later unveil new plans for 100,000 11-year-olds to sit catch-up tests at the end of primary school, in a move it says will help drive up standards.

Nicky Morgan, the education secretary, will doubtless have more on this in her Today interview at 8.30am.

Updated

Morning briefing

Good morning all, and welcome to the Guardian’s live election blog. Once again, we’ll be following all the key events of the day’s campaigning, as the political leaders haul themselves around the country, trailed by a sizeable proportion of Her Majesty’s press, trying to win the nation’s votes.

With less than a month to go until polling day, today sees what may be the most significant policy announcement of the campaign so far, with Labour’s move to close the non-doms loophole. Will we finally see some significant movement in the polls, as the party clearly hopes? Or will they remain stubbornly stuck, as they have done for the first two weeks of the campaign, with barely more than a rasher of bacon between the two main parties?

I’m Esther Addley and I’ll be opening the day’s blog, handing over to our election supremo Andrew Sparrow later in the morning. You can contact us on Twitter @estheraddley and @AndrewSparrow or leave us a comment below the line.

The big picture

Ed Miliband being interviewed by the the Swindon Advertiser during his visit to Los Gatos Tapas Bar yesterday.
Ed Miliband being interviewed by the the Swindon Advertiser during his visit to Los Gatos Tapas Bar yesterday.

Ed Miliband will be hoping he can set the agenda for the day with a speech in Warwick this morning – already heavily trailed in the papers overnight - saying that Labour will abolish the non-domicile tax rule that allows many of Britain’s richest residents to avoid paying tax on their overseas earnings.

As the Guardian’s Patrick Wintour writes here, Miliband will argue that the rule, which was introduced by William Pitt the Younger in the late 18th century, and unique to the UK, is based on a belief that “anything goes for those at the top and that what is good for the rich is always good for Britain”.

In a campaign that has had plenty of claim and counter-claim – and happily hasn’t been short of the odd photo-op or two, this is a genuinely significant policy move by Miliband that the party will no doubt want to portray shows his willingness to stand up for ordinary people against “those at the top”.

The Tories will no doubt have plenty to say about the policy too – more of that in a bit.

Ruth Davidson.
Ruth Davidson.

First, though, the day is also likely to be shaped by the fallout of last night’s Scotland debate, which saw the SNP’s Nicola Sturgeon and Labour’s Jim Murphy square up against the Scottish Conservative leader Ruth Davidson and the Lib Dems’ Willie Rennie.

If you missed it – deduct 10 “election obsessive” points and do not pass Go if so – here’s Andrew Sparrow’s snap verdict from last night.

Andy’s view is that Ruth Davidson and Jim Murphy probably came out of the exchanges best.

Nicola Sturgeon did not crash, not by any means, but she certainly did not shine in the way she did last week, when novelty and outsiderhood - two qualities she cannot deploy in Edinburgh - were working in her favour.

In part, he writes, Sturgeon was handicapped by being the frontrunner – never the best place to be position going into a debate

But she may have also stumbled over a second referendum. For some time now it has been clear that the SNP’s promise of no further referendum for a generation meant no such thing, but this evening Sturgeon hinted that the SNP would propose one in their manifesto for the 2016 Scottish elections and then seek to hold one in the event of victory. There are plenty of people currently planning to vote SNP who do not support independence, and such blatant “neverendum” talk could put them off.

Jim Murphy and Nicola Sturgeon lock horns in Edinburgh.
Jim Murphy and Nicola Sturgeon lock horns in Edinburgh. Photograph: Jeff J Mitchell/Getty Images

Expect plenty of debate, too, around Sturgeon’s statement that she is “offering to help make Ed Miliband prime minister”. “Nicola, we don’t need your help,” was Murphy’s riposte.

Of course, for many the star of the show was this chap, sporting a fake moustache.

Here’s Severin Carrell’s take on the debate and there’s plenty more reaction here.

Diary

  • Ed Balls, the Labour shadow chancellor, is on the Today programme at 7.30am, and Nicky Morgan, the Conservative education secretary, is up an hour later.
  • Nigel Farage is in Grimsby from first thing this morning, where Ukip are hoping to replace Labour’s outgoing veteran Austin Mitchell - expect a roistering speech at 11.30 and, just perhaps, a brief post-match sharpener in a local hostelry. Then it’s on to Skegness in the afternoon and Boston this evening. Rowena Mason and Marina Hyde will be on his trail.
  • At 11.30, Miliband takes the floor at the University of Warwick for his big non-doms speech
  • Nick Clegg is in Chippenham in Wiltshire this morning supporting Lib Dem incumbent Duncan Hames, his every move trailed by my colleague Frances Perraudin.
  • 6pm sees hustings in Bradford West, where George Galloway will go toe to toe against Labour’s Naz Shah – a candidate with a remarkable story - in a race that so far has been lively to say the least.
  • Green leader Natalie Bennett takes part in a hustings for the seat of Holborn and St Pancras against Labour’s Keir Starmer at 6.30pm, while Caroline Lucas will be doing the same in Brighton Pavilion at 7pm.
  • And the Scottish party leaders are back for more this evening with a debate on BBC Scotland, this time with the participation of the Scottish Greens and Ukip. That’s at 8pm.

The big issue

It’s tax and non-doms, and in a sign of the impact that Labour are hoping this policy will make, the party appeared last night to have won back a high profile scalp from the Tories.

Duncan Bannatyne, lovable curmudgeon from Dragon’s Den, was last week one of more than 100 business leaders who signed a letter to the Telegraph supporting the Conservative party.

Last night he had this to say about Labour’s non-doms move.

Bannatyne has been an outspoken critic in the past of the non-dom loophole, but it has had other high profile critics, including Richard Bacon, the senior Conservative on the Commons spending watchdog, the public accounts committee, who complained about the system only last month, saying:

You can easily spend 80% to 100% of your time in the UK because you are resident here, and be a non-dom for tax purposes. No wonder people are pissed off. It’s extraordinary, frankly, in all honesty.

The anomaly was recently highlighted by the case of HSBC’s chief executive Stuart Gulliver, who is registered as a non-dom because he previously worked in Hong Kong, even though he was born and raised in Britain, has worked in the UK for past 12 years and sends his children to school in the country.”

Michael Gove, the Conservative chief whip, told Newsnight last night:

My understanding is that when Labour have been questioned about this, they have been incapable of saying how much money this tax would raise. Indeed, there are some suggestions this could lead to a flight of talent and a flight of cash from this country and the exchequer could be worse off.”

The party may choose to attack on either or both of those lines today. But the truth is, this move puts the Conservatives in a difficult position. Do they defend the tax loophole and so take the side of the rich?

Here’s all you need to know about how the non-dom rules work at the moment.

Read these

“Meet the apex predator,” writes Mary Riddell in the Telegraph – and she means Tony Blair. The former PM’s reputation may be damaged, but David Cameron has most to fear from his intervention on Europe yesterday, she writes.

Sticking with the surprising metaphors, Matthew Norman in the Independent writes about the polling group that compared the party leaders to cartoon characters - Nick Clegg “as dull but handsome Fred from Scooby Doo, Ed Miliband as Elmer Fudd, and David Cameron as the anti-hero of Wacky Races, Dick Dastardly”. Just what is it about Cameron that reminds voters of Dastardly? More here.

Former athlete and politician Sebastian Coe
Former athlete and politician Sebastian Coe

Also in the Telegraph, Sebastian Coe – who as you will recall, was briefly an MP in the 1990s – reminds readers that the deciding factor in elections can often be unquantifiable.

We should not rule out how much gut instinct has to do with where the cross will ultimately come to rest. I will go to my grave knowing that for many undecided voters Kinnock’s triumphalist tone at that last rally – described as an “emotional spasm” and which he himself blamed for losing the election – did not “smell” right.

The day in a tweet

If today were a song...

… well, we have to go with Taxman by the Beatles, that affectionate ode to the fiscal authorities from everyone’s favourite multi-millionaires. Altogether now: “Let me tell you how it will be, There’s one for you, nineteen for me, Cos I’m the taxman, yeah, I’m the taxman”

The key story you’re missing while you’re election-obsessed

Once again, an unarmed black man has been killed in the US by a white police officer – in this case, shot in the back while he was running away, in a killing captured in this shocking footage. The North Charleston officer has already been charged with murder.


Updated

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