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The Guardian - UK
The Guardian - UK
Politics
Andrew Sparrow

Cameron has edge over Miliband in TV battle, Guardian/ICM poll shows - live

Edited highlights of Ed Miliband’s appearance on Thursday night’s leaders’ programme.

All our coverage of tonight's TV battle - in one place

Paxman
‘Are you alright?’ ‘Yes - are YOU alright?’ Photograph: Getty Images

We’ve just launched a Comment is free round-up with commentary on tonight’s Cameron/Miliband non-debate showdown from Polly Toynbee, Jonathan Freedland, Matthew d’Ancona, Hugh Muir Gaby Hinsliff and Aditya Chakrabortty. Here’s an extract from Polly’s article.

Miliband had just enough chance to mention what he cares about most – inequality, decent pay and fair chances. Will that carry him through? Without pointing a finger at the government for the rich by the rich, the contrast between their chosen issues was there for all to see. Here was the personality choice too – a highly polished professional politician pitched against an amateur, boyish enthusiast, lacking the gloss and the experience. Which quality is valued more by the alienated undecideds remains uncertain.

You can read all six articles here.

And here is a round-up of all the other articles on our site on the showdown.

And here is some video

That’s all from me for tonight.

Thanks for the comments.

Updated

Here is some alternative analysis of what Twitter sentiment said about who won the encounter. Unlike the Sun’s findings (see 11.18pm), this chart shows Ed Miliband winning easily.

Twitter analysis
Twitter analysis Photograph: Centre for the Analysis of Social Media

This is from Jamie Bartlett, from the Centre for the Analysis of Social Media.

David Cameron posted this on Twitter after the encounter.

Both sides were contacting journalists during and after the Cameron/Miliband showdown with their “spin”. Labour concentrated on sending me text messages.

But, when it came to sending emails, the Tories beat Labour hands down. Here’s my inbox from earlier.

My email inbox
My email inbox Photograph: Guardian

We’ve got two videos from the exchanges up already, but we’ve got two more videos, with lengthy highlights from David Cameron and Ed Miliband, due to launch in the next 10 minutes or so.

On Twitter some people have been suggesting that ICM must have carried out their poll before the end of Ed Miliband’s exchanges with Jeremy Paxman. That might explain why ICM puts Cameron ahead, they suggest.

I’m told this is not the case. The post-event poll was launched at 10.27pm, after Paxman’s interview with Miliband was over.

YouGov's app poll: 51% says Cameron won, 49% Miliband

YouGov has been polling tonight’s Cameron/Miliband showdown using a new app.

According to this, Cameron won by a very slim margin.

One challenge when looking at polling around debates is determining pre-existing bias. In other words, most Conservative voters think Cameron won, most Labour voters think Miliband won - the question is what did everyone else think?

Lib Dem supporters broke for Miliband 52% to 48%. Ukip voters for Cameron 70% to 30%.

The topline shows Cameron won the debate according to 54% of respondents.

However, when asked who they thought would make the better PM, 48% said Cameron, 40% Miliband. Now usually on this question, Cameron enjoys a much more significant 15-20 point gap.

Also, among the 8% in the ICM poll that said the debate might change their mind, 56% of these said they would now consider voting Labour, and 30% for the Tories.

Public opinion takes time to stabilise, Miliband began the evening miles behind Cameron when it comes to personal ratings. Tonight he may have narrowed that gap.

Updated

ICM poll data in full

Here are the full ICM poll tables.

Updated

Questions that made PM splutter: Cameron v Paxman - video

David Cameron is also given a rough ride. Paxman, in his signature style, presses the prime minister on the minimum wage, foreign policy and his 2010 pledges on VAT. Watch our compilation of Paxman’s best questions

Updated

Hell yes! Miliband v Paxman - video

Ed Miliband develops something of a catchphrase during his televised Q&A with Jeremy Paxman. The Labour leader has a lot of explaining to do as he answers questions on immigration, his brother, and whether he’s tough enough for the job of prime minister

Verdict from the Twitter commentariat

Here is a selection of the most interesting tweets I’ve seen from political journalists and commentators who have expressed a view on the Cameron/Miliband showdown.

If ICM are giving it to Cameron (by a small margin), the commentariat are giving it to Miliband.

The Sun has been using sentiment analytics to track reactions to the interviews and Q&As on Twitter.

And their verdict is - a bit mixed.

Well, it seems there was no clear overall winner, with both of them getting a kicking on Twitter.

It was a good night for Paxman, who put both leaders through the wringer, with poor Ed coming off worse.

But Miliband had a stronger showing during the Q&A section, which may have been enough to give him the edge overall.

Behavioural psychologist Dr Peter Collett's verdict

David Cameron started off talking too fast.
David Cameron started off talking too fast. Photograph: Getty Images

It was really a game of two halves, and I didn’t think there was a lot to chose between them when it came to the audience interrogation. There were certainly signs that Cameron scored when it came to the Paxman interview.

Miliband showed signs of being more jokey, especially towards the end - the acid test is the cut away. It’s not simply a matter of trying to deconstruct how the party leaders behaved but rather looking for cues as to the impact of their behaviours on the audience. If you looked at how the audience were reacting, you could see that they were far more amused when Paxman scored a point against Miliband, than they were when he managed to put down Cameron.

But both leaders seemed rattled. They were using a lot of dominance displays in order to try and reassert themselves: using stiff wrists, a lot of heavy gesticulation and frowning. There was lip licking by Cameron, which is his signature sign of distress. Both were also using finger counting unconsciously in an attempt to discourage Paxman from interrupting them. “What I would like to say is” and up goes the thumb. What this says to Paxman is “Hey I have a list of things to say, don’t interrupt me. Both of them got roughed up quite a bit - I wasn’t overwhelemd by either.

Cameron didn’t start off terribly well in his conversation with Paxman, partly because he was talking too fast and there was no light and shade. Speech speed is a key indication of who is in control. But then he settled in, particularly when he pushed back against Paxman.

Dr Peter Collett is a behavioural psychologist and former Oxford don

Updated

The ICM poll also asked about character.

Ed Miliband did better than David Cameron on four counts: governing in the interests of the many not the few (55% v 27%); having the courage to say what’s right rather than what’s popular (51% v 35%); and understanding “people like me” (48% v 25%). And, when asked which leader was more spin than substance, Miliband also did better. Some 49% said Cameron was more spin than substance, but only 35% for Miliband.

Cameron also won on four counts: being respected around the word (58% to 19%): being decisive (54% to 29%); being good in a crisis (46% to 21%); and being backed by his party (58% to 21%).

The two men are almost equally matched on having “changed his party for the better”. Some 36% say that of Cameron, and 35% of Miliband.

Updated

More from Rowena Mason in the spin room, who has been talking to William Hague. He denied Cameron was out of sorts because the government’s Commons bid to unseat Speaker John Bercow was defeated.

The prime minister was not grumpy. He does not get grumpy and he showed no sign of being that tonight

Asked why Cameron did not get the audience laughing and at ease as Miliband did, Hague said:

They were laughing at him and pointing out Ed Balls was a weak point in the shadow cabinet. The prime minister handled the entire interview extremely well.

Updated

Ed Miliband and Jeremy Paxman in the Sky studio. They’re both alright.
Ed Miliband and Jeremy Paxman in the Sky studio. They’re both alright. Photograph: Stefan Rousseau/PA

More from the ICM poll.

Only 8% of those polled overall indicated that they were likely to have changed their mind about how they would vote at the election on the basis of what they saw tonight.

Amongst those, 56% said they would now vote Labour. And just 30% said they were now backing the Conservatives.

Nigel Farage.
Nigel Farage.

Nigel Farage, the Ukip leader, said Miliband had clearly given a better performance, giving him 7/10 against Cameron’s 4/10, Rowena Mason reports.

“It was not what I expected at all,” Farage said. “In terms of personalities, he fought back more, was more human and got the audience clapping. Cameron was nowhere near that. Cameron looked discomfited.”

Updated

Douglas Alexander, Labour’s election chief, said it was a “powerful, powerful performance [from Ed Miliband] but it wasn’t so much about performance as it was about substance”.

He said Cameron’s answers were “poor”, particularly the one about students choosing zero-hour contracts.

Asked about the poll showing Cameron winning, Alexander said: “If you look at the numbers that emerge in the coming weeks, the numbers that matter are the numbers on May 7 ... I haven’t even looked at the numbers but we are protagonists not commentators.”

Guardian/ICM poll shows Cameron wins - just: Cameron 54%, Miliband 46%

An instant Guardian/ICM poll found that David Cameron had narrowly “won” the contest with 54% saying that the PM came out on top once the don’t knows were excluded, compared with just 46% who felt that Miliband had the edge.

The sample of viewers, who were weighted to bring them in line with the broader population, were asked to put aside their party preference and concentrate only on what they heard during the programme, 46% felt that Cameron had the best arguments, as against 44% who said the same of Miliband. Cameron was also judged slightly more convincing – by 48% to 43% – and to have the more appealing personality, by 46% to 42%. He chalked up a clearer win on “actually answering the questions asked”, by 44% to 37%.

There was better news for Miliband when it comes to the crucial question of shifting votes: 56% of the sub-sample who said they might change their mind will now plump for Labour, as against just 30% for the Conservatives.

David Cameron retains his lead as best prime minister in this survey - but by a smaller margin than in many past polls – he is preferred on this count by 48% as against just 40% for Miliband.

ICM interviewed 3,650 adults aged 18+ online on 24-26th March. All agreed to watch the Cameron vs Miliband Live: the Battle for Number 10, and to complete a second interview immediately after it finished, which 1,123 did in the first few minutes. The data on both waves were weighted to the profile of all GB adults, including to recall of 2010 General Election voting. In essence, the post-wave data is ICM’s best guess on what a representative sample of the voting population would say had they all watched the programme.

Updated

Rupert Murdoch was watching.

I don’t think President Obama has tweeted about Ed Miliband yet, though.

Poll findings - Snap analysis

There are three snap observations on our poll.

1) A win is a win. David Cameron is entitled to celebrate victory.

2) But, given Ed Miliband’s personal ratings before tonight, Miliband is the man who has outperformed his benchmark - quite significantly.

3) And this does cause problems for the Tories, because depicting Miliband as unfit to be prime minister constitutes about 50% of their election strategy. (The long-term economic plan is the other 50%). Labour are attacking Cameron, of course, but their campaign is not founded on the notion that he is manifestly incapable of running the country.

And the big winner tonight is... Sunil! Who asked such a good question (“Do you not think your brother would have done a better job?”) , even Jeremy Paxman found himself returning to it towards the end when he wasn’t the only one starting to flag.

Otherwise, whatever your view of their answers, it seems clear that Miliband secured a huge advantage in winning the toss and putting Cameron in to bat first, allowing his half-time pep-talkers to slap him about the face a few times and send him out swinging.

He is, let us recall, “a pretty resilient guy”. As is his “poor mother”, who may have had to endure the “bruising” split of her sons, but having been forced to flee a town from which tens of thousands were transported to Treblinka, may feel she’s had worse.

All of which aside - can he eat three Shredded Wheat? We may never know, since Burley dodged the question. Call that a fair non-debate?

Our poll result is out. And Cameron wins - just.

Cameron: 54%

Miliband: 46%

More soon ...

Updated

Cameron/Miliband showdown - Overall snap verdict

Cameron/Miliband showdown - Overall snap verdict: You can see why Ed Miliband wanted to go second. Anyone voting now in our poll will have the memory of Miliband’s exchange with Paxman foremost in their mind, and I expect many people will conclude he was impressive. Although I said earlier he seemed a bit over-rehearsed, he also produced some good spontaneous comebacks (like the one about Cameron on the tube). Overall, the encounter did not contain any big surprises - they rarely do - and, whatever our poll says, it is unlikely to decide the election. But these were compelling, lively encounters, and proof that hard interviews can actually work to the advantage of those being interviewed too.

Updated

Paxman interviews Miliband - Snap verdict

Paxman interviews Miliband - Snap verdict: Miliband has put in hours of practice for these encounters, and it showed. To my ears, some of the assertive lines - hell, yes, he is tough enough; who cares what people think; he has always been underestimated - sounded a tad over-rehearsed. But I thought the same about Tony Blair’s “people’s princess”, which was one of the most successful soundbites ever, and my guess is that people will generally respond positively to this Miliband. Paxman almost disconcerted him with the energy question, and he picked up Miliband’s tendency to answer his own questions, but, overall, Miliband was in control and I would expect him to do well in our poll.

Updated

Miliband and Paxman: apparently they’re both alright.

Miliband and Paxman: apparently they're both alright.

Updated

Image

Q: Simon Danczuk says you are a liability.

Miliband says he does not care. He has stood up to people like Obama and Rupert Murdoch.

Who cares what people think?

Q: People say your brother would do a better job?

Miliband says he has been underestimated. People never thought he would be leader.

That’s why he wants to be prime minster.

At the end Paxman asks him if he is alright. (It sounds as if the mike is meant to be off.) “Yes,” says Miliband, “are you?”

Ed Miliband poses with Kay Burley and Jeremy Paxman.
Ed Miliband poses with Kay Burley and Jeremy Paxman. Photograph: Getty Images

Updated

Leadership

Q: I met someone on the tube recently who said you weren’t tough enough to stand up to Putin.

Was it David Cameron?

Q: He doesn’t take the tube much.

That’s unfair to Cameron, says Miliband.

He says he resisted pressure to back the government over bombing Syria. He stood up to President Barack Obama. Is he tough enough? Hell, yes, he is tough enough.

Updated

Jeremy Paxman has met another real person. On the tube. Drink!
Ed: “Was it David Cameron you spoke to on the tube?”
It wasn’t, you will be amazed to learn.

Updated

The SNP and Alex Salmond

Q: As for Alex Salmond’s demands, will you scrap Trident?

No, says Miliband.

Q: What about starting HS2 in Scotland?

Miliband says he is not going to get into a negotiation with Salmond.

Paxman says he will have to.

Miliband says that is presumptious. It is not up to him to decide the election.

Q: You really think you can win a majority?

Yes, says Miliband.

Updated

Miliband fronts up to Paxman's questions.
Miliband fronts up to Paxman’s questions. Photograph: Sky screengrab

Updated

The mansion tax

Q: Jim Murphy said the mansion tax was a way of taking money out of the south of England and giving it to Scotland.

Miliband says he does not accept that.

The mansion tax will affect homes worth more than £2m. Many of those are in London. There will be “consequentials”, and some money will go to Scotland. But some will go to Newcastle as well. That is part of being a United Kingdom.

Updated

Energy

Q: On energy policy, you used to think raising energy bills was a great way of helping the environment. Now you want to cut them.

Miliband says he never said raising energy bills was a way of saving the environment.

Q: You introduced a levy.

Miliband says he also wanted bills to be fair. There will be upward pressure on bills in the long run. But that makes it all the more important to make it fair.

Updated

The economy

Q: You’ve been wrong on unemployment, inflation and wages.

Wages have fallen, says Miliband.

Q: What would you cut?

Miliband cites the winter fuel allowance for wealthy pensioners. There would be cuts for the police and local government.

Q: How much does that save?

Miliband says he will make these decisions in government.

He is proposing cuts outside a few protected areas. Tony Blair never did that.

Updated

Miliband

So Miliband didn’t fall over and accidentally kick himself in the face, which means he’s already ahead. But whatever the reason behind Burley waking up and being considerably more interventionist with the Labour leader than with Cameron, that was certainly a livelier audience session, despite two “I make no bones about it”s, two “we can do better”s and several “let me say this”-es from Ed.

At least we’ve found the first star of the night in Sunil, who asked the best audience question in history: “Do you not think your brother would have done a better job?” Unusually, it actually got quite a revealing response.

Updated

Immigration

Q: Labour got immigration completely wrong. Some 400,000 people came in. What else did Labour do wrong?

Two things, says Miliband. He says he is proud of much of what the government did. But there was too much inequality.

Q: Did you borrow too much?

Miliband says borrowing got too high, but that was because of the financial crisis.

Q: Did you spend too much?

Miliband says, if you are saying too much spending caused the crisis.

Paxman says Miliband is answering his own questions again. He poses the question.

Miliband says Paxman is now asking his own questions.

Q: What did you spend too much on?

The Millennium Dome was unnecessary, says Miliband.

Fact check on Miliband’s claim on living standards by FullFact.org

Updated

Immigration

Miliband says he wants sensible controls on immigration. But, if you are asking about the EU ...

I’m not, says Paxman. You are inventing your own questions.

Q: What level should it be?

Miliband says he is not going to pluck a figure out of the air. But there should be controls.

Updated

Paxman interviews Miliband

Q: Do you think Britain is full?

In terms of immigration ...

Yees (a classic Paxo drawl)

Miliband says he would not put it like that.

Q: Labour got it wrong on immigration.

Yes, says Miliband.

(He is distancing himself from the Blair/Brown record again. See 10.07pm.)

Well that was Cameron, or rather, the two Camerons – frazzled, essay crisis Cameron getting a hellish tutorial grilling, and chillaxed Dave who tilts his head to one side and emotes with voters and whose biggest regret is that he didn’t get to do more of the all the really great things he has done.

He has, at least, succeeded in uniting the nation on a number of crucial points:

- This Uncle Tom Cobbley sounds like an promising choice for Tory leader

- Hasn’t Zayn Malik aged a lot since he left One Direction?

- More Paxo please, one nation Tory or not.

The view on Cameron from our BritainThinks voters

But what do the real voters think about Cameron’s performance tonight? We have 60 on standby to give their view throughout the election campaign as part of our joint polling project with the pollsters BritainThinks.

The people in the focus groups are all undecided voters from five key seats. They each have an app and some of them are online now telling us what they think of the Cameron’s interview with Paxman as it happened.

The overall feeling is that Cameron actually fared well, Deborah Mattinson, Founder of Britain Thinks says.

One describes him as “composed”.

Another says: “I’m rather impressed so far.”

“I think he did well.”

“Holding his own.”

“I have a lot of respect - he doesn’t get flustered.”

“I have a lot of respect for Cameron - he doesn’t get too flustered even when he’s grilled by Paxman! He seems honest and down to earth.

“Cameron has his facts and figures to hand and is not allowing Paxman to throw him off course in giving his answers, despite tough questioning from him.”

“Superb Cameron so far, very switched on and trustworthy.”

The initial responses on Miliband are not so positive.

“Ed Miliband doesn’t seem to speak as confidently as David Cameron. Also not as ready with the numbers as David Cameron.”

“First time I’ve listened to Ed Miliband… Arrrr 80 minutes of it.”
“Milibands words sound like a fairytale. Easier said than done.”

“David v Ed question put him on the spot! Do I vote for someone who would undermine his brother like he did?”

Deborah’s summary of the panel’s views so far: “Top line view is that DC’s performance is more assured and confident than EM - also better command of facts and figures. All our panel are undecided but this view cuts across geography and current party preferences. In particular we saw praise for Cam from some Scottish participants and some Labour leaners. People in the panel are responding to the policies in a partisan way but even strong anti-Tories in this small sample tended to rate Cameron’s performance over Miliband’s.”

Updated

As Miliband answers questions from the audience, his brother is tweeting about displaced Burmese people ...

... much to the consternation of his followers.

Miliband’s Q&A with Burley - Snap verdict

Miliband’s Q&A with Burley - Snap verdict: Labour will be pleased with that. The Miliband we saw bore no real relation to the “weak”, “despicable” character that Cameron talks about at PMQs. He sounded passionate, and engaged well with the audience (from what I heard - it might have looked different to someone watching more). It was striking how much he differentiated himself from Labour’s record, and not having to defend his actions in government, as Cameron did, seemed to give him an advantage. It was also noticeable how keen he was to talk about his pledge to cut tuition fees, even boasting about how it benefited the middle classes, not low earners. Steve Richards revealed recently that one reason Miliband was keen to have a pledge on this was so he could use it as a shield in the debates. Tonight we saw that in action.

Updated

Q: Why are you so behind in the polls?

Miliband says he takes an old-fashioned view. The people are the boss. They will decide.

Updated

Q: You have made it difficult for your supporters. You have made gaffes. You do not seem to be fighting for the people you should be.

Miliband says his spending plans are very different from the Conservatives.

On gaffes, he says he is not going to win a bacon-sandwich eating contest. But what matters is ideas and decency.

Q: What about Labour’s record on the banks?

Miliband says Labour was wrong on that. He uses the word “wrong” four or five times. He has learnt from that.

Q: Has Ed Balls?

He absolutely has, says Miliband.

Updated

Mili
Mili

Q: How are you going to be different from Nick Clegg? Or are you just going to sugar-coat things?

No, says Miliband.

Q: How do we know?

Miliband cites what he said about tuition fees. He said in 2011 that he would cut them. He has found a way of doing this.

Q: What do you think are Cameron’s best qualities?

Miliband says there are two things he admires. First, Cameron’s commitment to gay marriage. And, second, his commitment to overseas aid spending.

Q: Would you have a pint with him?

Miliband says he is not sure. But he would share a bacon sandwich, he says.

Updated

Q: Is socialism still an important value?

Miliband says he calls it democratic socialism. But his answer is yes. Every generation must interpret this for themselves. Does the economy only work for the rich? Or does it work for everyone? He wants a fairer, more equal society.

Q: Wouldn’t your brother do a better job? He was better qualified and better positioned.

Miliband says it won’t surprise the questioner to hear that he thinks the answer is no. He felt he had to move Labour on, on things like Iraq.

Q: How do you feel about creating such divisions?

It is hard, says Miliband. It was bruising but it is healing.

Q: Did you not talk?

No, says Miliband, but relations were strained.

Your poor mum, says Burley.

She is quite hardened, Miliband says.

Updated

EU

Q: Why won’t you give people a vote on the EU?

Miliband says that is not his priority. Leaving the EU would be a disaster. Strategically, if you are dealing with terrorism or climate change, you have to be in the EU. If there is a transfer of power, he would have a referendum. But this is unlikely. Why would he have a referendum when he doesn’t want to leave?

Q: That’s not a definite no, it’s a politician’s answer.

I don’t think so, says Miliband.

Updated

Q: If you are prime minister, what will the budget deficit be at the end of the parliament?

Miliband says he wants to balance the budget. He will put up taxes for the highest earners. There will be some cuts. And under the Conservatives ...

Don’t talk about them, says Burley.

Miliband says it is relevant. We need to encourage growth, so we get more tax revenues.

Q: I’m a higher-rate taxpayer. Labour’s messages make me feel demonised.

Miliband says he hopes to give a better message. Some people criticise him for wanting to cut tuition fees, saying it will help middle-class families. Too right I want to help middle-class families, he says.

We all benefit from better services, he says.

Updated

Miliband's Q&A with Burley

Burley
Burley

Q: Are things really that bad?

No, says Ed Miliband, but they could be a lot better. He would do something about it. We could do a lot better than this.

Cameron said he could not live on a zero hours contract. Nor could I. So let’s do something about it.

Updated

Cameron’s Q&A with Burley - Snap verdict

Cameron’s Q&A with Burley - Snap verdict: Well, that really sucked the life out of the event (and showed why professional interviewers are worth the money), and Cameron seemed to relax. (I would have said he relaxed visibly, but I’m typing, so mostly heard it, rather than watched it.) But the NHS question was sharp, and reinforced the point made by Paxman about Cameron having an iffy record on promise-keeping. And the “what do you regret” question was good too. My impression was that Cameron misjudged it. He started with a joke answer, and then resorted to: “I should have done what I did, only faster”. At this point a touch of humility may have served him better. But it was the familiar, rather cocksure, amiable bloke prime minister we saw, and all the evidence is that people don’t mind that much.

Updated

Cameron appears to welcome the slightly more open reception from Kay Burley.
Cameron appears to welcome the slightly more open reception from Kay Burley. Photograph: Stefan Rousseau/PA

Q: If you could redo one thing from your time as prime minister, what would it be?

Cameron says he promised less noise, and more politeness at PMQs. That did not work out. On the economy, he wished he had done things like the help-to-buy housing programme quicker. But nothing will work without a strong economy.

Q: Have you ever had three shredded wheat?

Yes, but it was a long time ago.

Updated

Q: You promised no top-down NHS reorganisation. In our borough we had to take the government to court to keep our hospital open. You broke your promises. So how can we trust you?

Cameron says his biggest promise was not to cut the NHS. And he didn’t. He got rid of bureaucrats, and he is now treating more patients in the NHS. If he gets elected again, with a strong economy, he will go on investing in the NHS.

Factchecking

Updated

Paxman’s body language speaks loud and clear to Cameron.

Jeremy Paxman's body language speaks loud and clear to David Cameron.

Q: Would you like to see more NHS services provided by private companies?

Cameron says he is happy to see charities or companies provide good healthcare. What matters is whether it is good. He loves the NHS. He recalls taking his desperately ill son Ivan to hospital. Private providers are a tiny proportion of the total.

Updated

BuzzFeed’s Emily Ashton has a point.

Q: How will you convince the public not to opt out of the EU?

Cameron says Britain is at its best when it is an outward-looking, trading nation. The EU does some good things, but it is trying to do too much.

Updated

Q: What would you do to help disabled people?

Cameron says he wants genuine equality. The Disability Discrimination Act, introduced by William Hague in the 1990s, has had a good effect. But there is more to be done. The employment gap is too big. Some employers are very good, and accept that if they don’t employ disabled people, they are missing good people. It comes back to a strong economy.

Q: I still think there is more to be done. Social care is becoming harder.

Cameron says councils need to bring health and social care together more.

Updated

Burley interupts. She has a question on policing.

Q: Will you reverse the police cuts?

Cameron says he has huge respect for the police. Police budgets have been cut, but crime has come down too. Desk jobs were cut; forces were combined and there are still more efficiencies to be achieved.

Q: The Lincolnshire chief constable said services were close to collapse.

Cameron says he does not accept that.

Burley asks the questioner if he is happy with the response. He replies: “No comment.”

Updated

Q: It has been said we have not seen anything yet as regards cuts to public services. How bad will it get?

Cameron says he did not want to make cuts. But he had to get the deficit down. What he needs to do in the next two years is similar to what has been done so far.

What he is suggesting is manageable and do-able, he says.

Q: Can you give some examples?

Cameron says he mentioned some earlier, such as cutting in-work benefits. He says he has saved £20bn this parliament by being smarter. There is more to be done. Businesses do this. They try and do this every year.

As an example, Cameron cites policing.

Updated

To the audience! No Dimbleby tonight, but never not worth reviving this …

Q: Will you appoint a cabinet minister for older people?

Cameron thanks the questioner for her advocacy for older people. He says he will ensure pensioner benefits continue for everyone.

He was asked about such a ministerial role the other day. He will think about it. But he wants all of his ministers to be thinking about how to look after older people.

If the government is not doing right by older people, do not blame the others, he says; blame me.

Updated

A fact check from the Observer’s economics editor Heather Stewart:

David Cameron claimed that ‘the stock of debt is falling as a percentage of GDP’. George Osborne proudly announced at last week’s budget that it will fall in the coming financial year, 2015-16, but the prime minister is wrong to claim that it’s falling already; and as the Office for Budget Responsibility pointed out, he only achieved this forecast reduction by counting on the proceeds of a sell-off of some of the banking assets the Treasury has owned since the financial crisis.

The prime minister rightly told Jeremy Paxman that the coalition has cut the budget deficit - the gap between government revenue and spending each year - by half as a share of GDP since 2010 (though they hoped to eliminate it altogether).

However, he also claimed that “the stock of debt is falling as a percentage of GDP”. George Osborne proudly announced at last week’s Budget that debt as a share of the economy is now forecast by the office for budget responsibility to fall in the coming financial year - 2015-16 - fulfilling one of the Conservatives fiscal rules. But the prime minister is wrong to claim that it’s happened already. And as the Office for Budget Responsibility pointed out, he only achieved this forecast reduction by counting on the proceeds of a sell-off of some of the banking assets the Treasury has owned since the financial crisis. In cash terms, public sector net debt was £771bn in 2009-2010; it is expected to end the current financial year at £1489bn

And this from the Guardian’s home affairs correspondent Alan Travis on Cameron’s VAT claims:

Paxman told Cameron that in the 2010 election “you said to my face, twice, that you would not raise VAT. But you did”.

Cameron responded: “There is a crucial difference on this occasion. We are the government... we know what is necessary in the next Parliament. Our plans do not include increases in VAT or national insurance or income tax. We are very clear about that...The right approach is to find savings not to put up taxes.”

His wording is already a retreat from his promise at prime minister’s question time on Wednesday firmly ruling out any VAT rises. His language now echoes almost exactly what he said in 2010.

On April 23 2010 Cameron said: “We have absolutely no plans to raise VAT. Our first budget is all about recognising we need to get spending under control rather than putting up tax.”

In June 2009 he he had been even more unequivocal saying: “You could try, as you say, to put it on VAT, sales tax, but again if you look at the effect of sales tax, it’s very regressive, it hits the poorest the hardest. It does, I absolutely promise you. Any sales tax, anything that goes on purchases that you make in shops tends to . . . if you look at it, where VAT goes now it doesn’t go on food, obviously, but it goes very, very widely and VAT is a more regressive tax than income tax or council tax.”

But neither statement prevented George Osborne raising the standard rate of VAT from 17.5% to 20% in his ‘emergency budget’ on 22 June 2010.

Updated

Cameron's Q&A with Burley

Burley

Q: [From Matthew] What are Ed Miliband’s best qualities?

Cameron laughs. “That is a tricky one. All of us put ourselves forward because we want to do the right thing.” He says he admires Miliband for voting with him over Islamic State.

Q: You called him despicable.

Cameron says Miliband calls him things too. He called Cameron dodgy that day. He took his daughter to PMQs this week, and she said she would not be allowed to behave like that at school.

Updated

This is from Stewart Wood, one of Miliband’s closest advisers.

“Could you live on a zero hours contract?”
“How much money have you borrowed?”
“There’s a credibility problem here, isn’t there?”
“What do you think has been your biggest foreign policy disaster?”
“What would it take for you to vote no in a referendum on our continued participation in the European Union?”
“A vote for Cameron is a vote for two, three, four years, after which it’s Boris Johnson or ... Uncle Tom Cobbley?”
Oh Paxo, how we’ve missed you!

Paxman
Paxman

Updated

Paxman interviews Cameron - Snap verdict

Paxman interviews Cameron - Snap verdict: What a class act. Paxman, of course. Not just because the questions were aggressive, but because they were pointed, clever, witty (and aggressive). It was Cameron’s most uncomfortable 20 minutes in an interview for ages. His concession that he could not live on a zero hours contract is already being used against him by Labour, but overall he held up reasonably well, and even managed a lighthearted comment at the end.

The third term

Cameron

Q: You said you won’t stand for a third term. So after three or four years, we could get someone else, or “uncle Tom Cobbley”.

Cameron says he will serve a full third term. But he does not think he is indispensable.

And that bit of the show is over.

Updated

Europe

Q: What would it take for you to vote no in an EU referendum?

Cameron says if it were not in Britain’s interests, he would not recommend staying.

Q: So, by implication, our current membership is intolerable.

Cameron says it could be improved. He wants to give people a proper choice. And people will only get a referendum with him as prime minister.

Updated

Foreign policy

Q: What is your biggest foreign policy disaster?

Cameron mentions cutting the EU budget, and going into Libya.

Q: You promised that Britain would stand by the people of Libya.

Cameron says it was right to go into Libya. Britain put in aid, and military assistance.

Q: People are being beheaded on the beach.

Cameron says it has been very difficult.

Updated

Welfare cuts

Q: Can you tell us where this £12bn in welfare cuts will come from?

Cameron says £13bn needs to come from departments, and £12bn from welfare. He would freeze in-work benefits for two years. That £12bn ...

Q: £10bn of which you have not explained. Where will the cuts fall?

It is possible to make the savings, Cameron says.

Q: I don’t want to be rude. Do you know and are you not saying? Or do you not know?

Cameron says the Tories could cut the benefit cap. They would stop young people getting housing benefit.

Updated

VAT

Q: At the last election you said to my face, twice, that you would not raise VAT. But you did.

Cameron says now that he is in government he has been able to look at the books.

He wants to find £1 of waste in every £100 of government spending. His opponents want to put up taxes.

Q: You said one thing, but did another.

Cameron says he had an appalling inheritance from Labour. He had to get the deficit down. Employment is growing; the economy is working.

Updated

The national debt

Q: You said before the election the country was overwhelmed by debt. Do you know how much you are borrowing?

Cameron says he expects Paxman to tell him. That gets a minor laugh.

Paxman says it is £500bn.

Cameron says we need to cut the deficit more quickly.

Q: My point is the chasm between what was said and what was done. You said you would cut immigration. What is it?

Cameron says it has not been cut to the tens of thousands.

Q: You have failed.

Cameron says we need to fix the broken welfare system. He outlines his proposed changes to welfare rules for migrants.

Q: You have not done what you said. It was a ‘no ifs, not buts’ promise.

Cameron says he has not met the commitment he made. “I fully accept that.”

Fact check on the national debt question by FullFact.org

Updated

Judging by their red carpet arrival pap shots, David Cameron and Ed Miliband have chosen to dress, respectively, in bright royal blue and slightly lighter (more Republican?) blue. Paxman, (HE’S ENTIRELY IMPARTIAL, REMEMBER), is in a scarlet tie, while Burley’s gone for a shade of neon pink that seems to have made even her eyes go a bit funny.

First blood, meanwhile, to Paxman, who is the first to mention a chap a friend of his met somewhere in the north who handily illustrates his political point. Drink!

Food banks, zero hours’ contracts, Stephen Green at HSBC, Paxo, the deficit and immigration in the first 10 minutes. Cameron currently wondering why on earth he didn’t go for the mano-a-mano against Miliband.

Updated

Minimum wage

Cameron says he wants a higher minimum wage. But it has gone up.

And he has cut taxes. Low-paid people have been taken out of income tax, he says.

Q: You couldn’t live on a ZHC. I’m going to get personal. You chose someone who was a rich banker who advised on tax avoidance to your government. You chose to appoint a rich newspaper person who hacked phones to No 10. And you chose to defend a rich TV presenter who hit someone. What do these people have in common?

Cameron says they are different cases. He defends former HSBC boss Stephen Green. On Top Gear presenter Jeremy Clarkson, he says he did not know what happened. Clarkson is a friend, but it was up to the BBC to decide what to do after he assaulted a producer.

The aspersion you are trying to make is ridiculous.

Updated

Zero hours contracts

Q: How many jobs are zero hours contracts?

About one in 50.

Q: Could you live on one?

Cameron starts answering. As Paxman tries to interrupt, he says “Hold on”.

Paxman keeps repeating the question about whether Cameron could live on a ZHC.

That’s not the question, says Cameron.

It’s my question, says Paxman.

Cameron says the government outlawed exclusive ZHCs. He could not live on one. That is why they got rid of them.

Fact check on zero hours contracts by FullFact.org

Updated

Paxman interviews Cameron

Q: Do you know how many food banks there were when you came to power.

Not exactly, says Cameron. But the people who run them do a good job.

Q: There were 66. Now it’s 421. You said you would fix the broken society. You didn’t.

(Paxman isn’t holding back.)

Cameron says he does not accept that. Labour did not promote food banks in job centres.

We're under way: Cameron/Miliband in #BattleforNumber10

Cameron

Jeremy Paxman opens the programme.

He says it is the first big test of the election.

Kay Burley introduces the studio audience, and talks through the order of play.

Updated

Here we go.

Douglas Alexander, Labour election strategy chair, is in the spin room spinning for Ed Miliband.

Esther Addley’s alternative (non-)debate commentary

Okay, so it’s not a debate. Try to control your disappointment. Cameron and Miliband will not trade verbal jousts, and will not even appear in the same room at the same time, though the reluctant prime minister might be regretting his determined resistance on that point after his rampant performance at PMQs yesterday.

But at last, after months of barracking and blather, we finally get our first chance to decide who wins “The Battle for Number 10” when the two heavyweights finally square up against each other. I’ll be reporting on the night from an armchair pundit’s point of view, offering a slightly different slant from Andrew – more The Thick of It than Newsnight.

So which is it to be? Sky or Channel 4? Fittingly for such an entirely bizarre event, both broadcasters are screening “Cameron and Miliband Live” (that’s “and”, you will note, not “versus”), and if that wasn’t strange enough, it’s co-presented by two formidable battlers in their own right, Jeremy Paxman - making his first major post-Newsnight appearance - and Kay Burley, whom the Telegraph once called “the high-heeled hellcat from Hounslow”, which we think means she’s an aggressive interviewer who is a woman.

At least we can be confident this will be an entirely impartial non-debate – the fact that Paxman has admitted to being a “one nation Tory” and reportedly recently “seriously considered” standing for the party in Kensington and Chelsea are of absolutely no consequence.

Kay Burley.
Kay Burley.

Burley has not declared a party allegiance, though she did tell the director of the campaign group 38 Degrees that a protest at Westminster would “make no difference whatsoever … Why don’t you just go home?”, and there was also that time she called a campaigner from Yes Scotland a “knob”.

Unlikely studio-mates, perhaps, but according to the Daily Mail they are getting along swimmingly, with Burley marching up to a glum-looking Paxman at rehearsals and proclaiming “On your feet, big guy, and give me a snog”.

Fingers crossed for more of that this evening.

Updated

This sounds like wishful thinking.

I’m afraid a Lib Dem win isn’t an option with our ICM poll.

The two parties tossed a coin to decide who went first. Labour won, and Ed Miliband decided to go second.

The two party leaders also decided in what order to do the interview/Q&A sections. David Cameron chose to have his Paxman encounter first, while Miliband decided to confront the audience before being formally interviewed.

Updated

Nigel Farage is speaking to Sky’s Adam Boulton.

Asked who he expects to win, he says at least David Cameron has a message. He does not know what Labour stands for.

I suspect that Cameron will get the upper hand.

Nigel Farage at the Sky studio
Nigel Farage at the Sky studio Photograph: Sky News

Here are more pictures from Sky HQ.

And, for some reason, the Iron Throne from the Game of Thrones is there.

Nigel Farage turns up

Nigel Farage has turned up.

Perhaps he’ll end up winning?

More from the spin room.

Some of us are used to writing as we go along ...

Polling benchmarks

Soon after tonight’s event is over, the Guardian will publish the results of an ICM poll of viewers who have watched the whole programme. Respondents will be asked who they think “won”, and the results will be weighted demographically, and by past voting, so that they give a reasonable idea as to what a representative sample of the electorate would say if they had watched the programme.

But who would you expect to win? Here are at least three benchmarks you could use.

Party polling

Sometimes the results of debate polls closely mirror party polls. If that happens tonight, it will be a draw, because Labour and the Conservatives are effectively tied in the current polls. Here’s the Guardian’s graph showing the average of latest polls, with Labour on 33.6% and the Conservatives on 33.4%.

That means if either Cameron or Miliband secure a clear win, they will be able to say they are outperforming their party.

Current polls
Current polls Photograph: Guardian

Leader perceptions

But voters already have views about Cameron and Miliband. And they think Cameron would make the best prime minister. Here are the latest figures on this from YouGov’s tracker (pdf).

Who would make the best prime minister?

Cameron: 39%

Miliband: 21%

That means, if people judge the debate partly in accordance with their views on who might make the best prime minister, you would expect Cameron to win easily. If he doesn’t, Miliband could arguably claim that he is outperforming expectations.

Leader perceptions
Leader perceptions Photograph: YouGov

Leaders’ approval

There is another way of judging leaders: asking whether they are doing well or badly. And, on this measure, as the YouGov figures show (pdf), Miliband is far behind Cameron. (This probably reflects critical coverage of Miliband in the media, and polling evidence suggesting that, unlike Cameron, he is having a negative effect on support for his party.) If you take this as a benchmark, then, just so long as Miliband does not get trounced by Cameron, he can go home arguing he has made some progress.

Cameron: -5 (45% well, 50% badly)

Miliband: -39 (26% well, 65% badly)

Updated

Cameron arrives

And David Cameron has now just arrived.

David Cameron arriving at Sky

Updated

Labour is effectively trying to “sledge” Cameron on Twitter.

Miliband arrives

Ed Miliband has arrived at the Sky studios in west London.

Ed Miliband arriving at Sky

Updated

But what do the real voters think? We have 60 on standby to give their view as part of our polling project with BritainThinks, which is following voters in five key seats through the campaign.

Each of the 60 has been given a smartphone app that will enable them to tell us their instant verdicts on the leaders as they speak, giving you a snapshot of opinion among people whose votes in key marginals could decide who gets the keys to Downing Street.

Remember to refresh the blog regularly, as these opinions will be added to older posts as they come in to make sure they don’t break up the chronological flow of topics discussed by Cameron and Miliband.

My colleague Rowena Mason is at the “spin room” at the Sky studios where the Cameron/Miliband showdown will take place.

It is not exactly buzzing, she says.

How many people are likely to watch tonight’s programme? My colleague John Plunkett, the Guardian media correspondent, has sent me this.

Predicting TV ratings is a mug’s game - so here goes.

Channel 4 and Sky News will be hoping for a combined audience of at least 2 million viewers for tonight’s election opener with Cameron and Miliband.

The 2010 debates did huge ratings, with more than 9 million viewers tuning into the opening head-to-head on ITV. But this isn’t a debate and Channel 4 didn’t have one last time, so there’s no precedent.

The good news for C4 and Sky is that there’s not much competition, up against BBC1’s The Truth About Calories and The Triplets Are Coming! on ITV (and Jimmy McGovern’s acclaimed drama Banished on BBC2).

Channel 4 had 1.7 million viewers in the slot last week for its Trevor Phillips documentary, Things We Won’t Say About Race That Are True, while Sky News tends gets 500,000 viewers or more during big breaking news stories.

So a combined audience of 2 million-plus – the sort of audience BBC1 gets for Question Time – is the target. More than 3 million and Paxo will have truly stuffed the opposition. They’ll be delighted.

Cameron, Nick Clegg and Gordon Brown during the 2010 TV debates.
Cameron, Nick Clegg and Gordon Brown during the 2010 TV debates. Photograph: Stefan Rousseau/PA

Updated

Do debates actually affect the polls? My colleague Alberto Nardelli has written a shrewd analysis. Here’s his conclusion.

The polling data from 2010 shows us that the debates did generate real movement in the polling, even if much of that was erased by polling day.

That explains why Cameron is so keen not to have any debates close to polling day – having them some distance out arguably reduces any risk of him performing badly and suddenly falling in the polls.

In an election that is closely fought and involves a large number of parties, even small movements like those in 2010 could be sufficient to influence the overall outcome of the vote on 7 May.

Updated

Any big broadcasting event like this is a clash between two alpha egos, each determined to assert their superiority. The competition can be brutal.

But I shouldn’t be too harsh about Jeremy Paxman and Kay Burley, because they do seem to be making an effort to get on. To make the point, Sky News has released this.

Earlier, Burley was showing Sky viewers the set. She will stand behind a podium ...

Kay Burley on set
Kay Burley on set Photograph: Sky News

... while Paxo gets one of these chairs.

Kay Burley
Kay Burley Photograph: Sky News

Updated

If tonight’s debate , sorry showdown, is as jolly as this - Michael Crick doorstepping Jeremy Paxman (his former Newsnight colleague) and challenging him about being a Tory - then we will be fine.

Welcome to tonight's #notadebate coverage

Welcome to tonight’s live blog covering ... well, we’re not quite sure what to call it.

It is not quite a head-to-head debate between David Cameron and Ed Miliband. But arguably it is the nearest thing we’re going to get to one, because all the other debates or debate-related election events will involve other parties. This is the only one that will pit just these two against each other.

And there will be a winner. The Guardian has commissioned a snap poll from ICM and, soon after the event finishes at 10.30pm, we will be publishing the results, which will show who respondents think “won” the contest, as well as who came over as more appealing and more convincing.

The event is jointly organised by Sky News and Channel 4 and they are billing it as the #BattleForNumber10 (a terrible hashtag, not least because #BattleForNo10 would have been shorter). On Twitter others are calling it the #notadebate, or #camVmili.

My colleague Rowena Mason has written a guide to the format. Jeremy Paxman is interviewing the two leaders and his co-presenter, Kay Burley, will be moderating as Cameron and Miliband take questions from the audience. And here is a guide to the key timings.

9pm: The programme starts, with Paxman interviewing Cameron.

Around 9.25pm: Cameron’s Q&A, moderated by Burley.

Around 9.45pm: Miliband’s Q&A, moderated by Burley.

Around 10.10pm: Paxman interviews Miliband.

Soon after 10.30pm: The Guardian’s ICM poll figures are published, here on this blog.

The official election campaign hasn’t quite started. But we’re almost there - tonight Downing Street announced the date when parliament will be summoned after the election - and Cameron will face up to Paxman after a rollercoaster day and a half.

Yesterday he won rave reviews for his performance in the final PMQs of this parliament.

But today he has suffered two difficult defeats: in the supreme court, where the government has lots its battle to block the publication of secret letters from Prince Charles; and in the Commons, where a Tory attempt to introduce a rule change that could pave the way for John Bercow being ousted as Speaker was voted down after a dramatic debate.

I will be covering developments in the runup to tonight’s Cameron/Miliband showdown, as well as covering the event itself and bringing you the best reaction and analysis afterwards - as well as full details of that poll.

While the event is taking place, we will have a live feed at the top of our blog.

And we will also be posting Factcheck analyses as it goes on, and reaction from our panel of floating voters.

If you want to follow me on Twitter, I’m on @AndrewSparrow.

Ed Miliband and David Cameron will face audience questions moderated by Kay Burley
Ed Miliband and David Cameron will face audience questions moderated by Kay Burley. Photograph: EPA/Sky/Getty/EPA/Sky/Getty

Updated

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