Ukip's octopus and its inspiration, the architect of the EU
constitution, Valéry Giscard d'Estaing.
Photo: AP/Jack Mikrut
It's doubtful whether most of the people watching Ukip's latest election broadcast realised that the octopus rampaging over Westminster was supposed to resemble Valéry Giscard d'Estaing. The ex-president has a low profile in Britain, and his stumbling English means that is unlikely to change if next year's referendum on the European constitution goes ahead.
But will it? Since the date was announced in March, the polls in France showed a growing majority planning to vote no on May 29. But that appears to be changing. On Saturday the yes vote jumped seven points to 52%. Explanations vary - the European Airbus project, Lionel Jospin's intervention and the 60th anniversary of the end of the second world war have been suggested - but the yes camp seems to be on a roll. Jean Marie Le Pen's May Day speech urging the French to vote no may help them, too.
Is that good or bad news for Tony Blair? Some people assume he would prefer to avoid a referendum. But Mr Blair is not a man to abandon a project on the grounds of unpopularity. Wresting a yes vote from a sceptical electorate would give the PM the chance to quit on a high - if he could bring himself to do it. Should Britain vote no, he can leave Gordon Brown to renegotiate Britain's relationship with the EU and still look forward to a berth in Europe during the final years of his career. Either way, the referendum would provide a convenient opportunity for that awkward handover of power.
