Welcome to Verducci’s View, a new weekly baseball newsletter from Sports Illustrated senior writer Tom Verducci. Every Monday, Tom will empty out his notebook and cover MLB’s hottest topics, provide in-depth analysis through both text and video breakdowns, look forward to what’s worth watching during the week and more. This week, we’re focusing on the early effects of ABS, a comp for Tigers rookie Kevin McGonigle and more.
What effect is ABS having on pitch framing by catchers? The art of presenting pitches to influence the umpire’s ball-strike call remains, but the hitter’s ability to challenge the call does slightly diminish its effect.
For instance, Giants catchers, led by pitch framing wizard Patrick Bailey, stole more strikes than any team last year (pitches out of zone called strikes). This season, their rate of stolen strikes is down 7%—about the equivalent of a hitter’s successful challenge every game or two.
Pitch framing still matters. Entering the weekend, umpires incorrectly called 861 strikes on pitches out of the zone. Only 167 of them were overturned by a batter’s challenge, or 19%.
But ABS means catchers who are not expert at subtly framing pitches, such as Francisco Alvarez of the Mets and Shea Langeliers of the Athletics, can stop yanking pitches two or more inches out of the zone back to the middle of the plate. The art will become more subtle.
“You can’t just turn on your receiving or turn off your receiving,” says Tigers manager A.J. Hinch. “It will shrink some of the big moves that catchers make. But the framing part of it is still super important because there’s all these ones that are marginal. You are not just trying to influence the umpire. You’re also influencing the other team on when to challenge and when not to challenge.
“I do think moves are going to start to be smaller. That glove yank, ripping through, I think that’s going to shrink.”
Seven other early impacts of ABS
1. Dugouts are quieter. There is less beefing at umpires. Got a problem? Challenge.
2. Game situation awareness is heightened. Says one veteran pitcher, “I’ve noticed our players are much more locked into the game situation because there is so much emphasis on leverage when it comes to when to challenge.”
3. Good umpires are getting their due (and it’s often the younger ones). Erich Bacchus, 35, working his fourth year as a full-time MLB umpire, called 466 pitches in his first three games behind the plate. Nine were challenged. Only one challenge was successful. Will Little, 42, was off to a similarly impressive start: 501 called pitches over three games and only one overturned call on 10 challenges.
4. Ryan Jeffers is the ABS whisperer. The Twins catcher has gained 10 strikeouts with his challenges. Nobody else has more than three. Working the Tigers-Twins FS1 broadcast last week, my broadcast partner, Connor Onion, and I decided these “strikeouts gained by catchers” should be an official league statistic and be named “Terminators.” Jeffers is the runaway leader in Terminators. We keep strikeouts for pitchers. It’s time to keep them for catchers.
5. Hitters are swinging less. The emphasis on a fixed strike zone has raised awareness of strike zone discipline.
| Percentage of Swings | In-Zone Pitches | All Pitches |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 74.6% | 47.8% |
| 2026 | 73.8% | 46.4% |
6. The rate of walks and strikeouts is soaring. Walks are at their highest rate in 75 years and fifth highest of all time. Strikeouts, after a two-year decline, are taking their biggest year-to-year jump since 2019. (Before you panic, read the next point with obligatory disclaimer.)
7. The MLB batting average heading into Sunday was .233, which would be the lowest in history. Now the disclaimer. We still have 91% of the season to play. Pitchers are ahead of the hitters. The weather is not hitter-friendly. Nobody is arriving at conclusions. These are simply early trends to watch. The MLB batting average through a similar number of games last season, for instance, was .235. It ended at .245.
Remembering Davey Lopes, the Original 40–40 Man
Davey Lopes dedicated his life to baseball. Few have ever brought to it the grittiness and intelligence that Lopes did.
He did not make his MLB debut until he was 27, a late start brought about by earning a college degree in elementary education and four years in the minors. He stayed until he was 42 years old. A dynamo on the bases and in the box, he stole more than 500 bases and hit more than 100 home runs. Only three others no taller than 5-foot-9 did that, all Hall of Famers: Hugh Duffy, Tim Raines and Joe Morgan.
Lopes’s most extraordinary season, at least as how it defined him as a player, happened in 1985 with the Chicago Cubs under manager Dallas Green. Lopes was 40 years old. Despite starting only 67 games (he came off the bench in another 32), he stole 47 bases in 51 tries.
The traditional 40–40 Club (home runs and stolen bases) is impressive. But six players have done it. Lopes is the only player in history to steal 40 bases at 40 years old.
When his 16-year playing career ended, Lopes continued to make his mark on the game as a coach and manager. He redefined the job and importance of first base coach, a role that once was so ceremonial the Yankees posted Mickey Mantle there in 1970 to boost attendance. Lopes was a master at reading pitchers’ times and tells. Under Lopes’s guidance, the Phillies stole 501 bases in a four-year span (2008–10) with a success rate of 84.3%. He not only loved baseball but also had a gift to see it with a discerning eye few could match.
Lopes died last week in his native state of Rhode Island from complications of Parkinson’s disease. He was 80 years old.
Imanaga 2.0
Cubs lefthander Shota Imanaga looks like a different pitcher. He has always relied heavily on the outlier carry of his below-average velocity four-seam fastball. But his fastball last year lacked finish (and command), which is why he gave up 24 home runs on his four-seamer. Nobody else gave up more than 16.
But with some tweaks to his setup and delivery, Imanaga has regained the magic dust to his heater. Check out these numbers on his four-seamer:
| Year | MPH | AVG | SLG | V. Drop | HR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 90.8 | .227 | .567 | 15.5” | 24 |
| 2026 | 92.2 | .130 | .217 | 13.6” | 0 |
With less vertical drop, his fastball is holding its plane better (fighting gravity), which means the ball is not dropping where hitters expect it will be in the hitting zone.
How did he do it? For one, he moved 7 ½ inches from the first base side of the rubber to toward the middle. He also created more rhythm with his hands at the start phase of his delivery, which had been jerky (with a pause) or almost non-existent (like a quick pitch). With more rhythm, he sinks into his legs more over the rubber.
He is also doing a better job of driving his head toward the plate and staying over his front leg. Notice on his follow-through how his head is lower and his back is flatter:
The Rays’ Way
Armed with a re-engineered splitter he is leaning into—its usage is up from 15% to 22%—Taj Bradley of the Minnesota Twins is off to a breakout start (2–0, 1.08 ERA in three starts). The Twins acquired Bradley, a 25-year-old starter with four years of control, last year for a setup reliever, Griffin Jax. He is just the latest graduate of the Tampa Bay system to flourish.
In 2019, the Rays were sitting on a stockpile of young starting pitchers rarely seen in the game. In their major league rotation they had Tyler Glasnow, 25, and Blake Snell, 26. In the minors were Cristopher Sanchez, Matthew Liberatore, Joe Ryan, Jeffrey Springs, Shane Baz and Bradley. All eight of them were traded. Overall, those trades grade out poorly for Tampa Bay. The eight ex-Rays are 8–3 this season.
Underscoring the fickle nature of pitching, back in 2019 only Baz was ranked among the organization’s top four pitching prospects. The others were Brendan McKay, Brent Honeywell and Shane McClanahan, all of whom broke down with injuries.
Seen and Heard
Phillies ace Zack Wheeler averaged 96.1 mph on his four-seam fastball last year before thoracic outlet compression surgery in September. Among his 148 pitches on a minor league rehab assignment this spring, he has not thrown a pitch faster than 94.3 mph. Phillies pitching coach Caleb Cotham says there is no cause for alarm. “The shape of all his pitches is right where we want them,” Cotham says. Another Phillies source said Wheeler has dialed back the effort on his fastball as he builds arm strength. There also been issues with minor league mounds; the one in Durham, for instance, was wet with unsure footing, causing Wheeler caution. Bottom line: the Phillies like his progress, no matter the radar gun readings. Wheeler is due to make two more minor league starts before he joins the Phillies ... I thought it was just me, the result of watching a lot of the Diamondbacks lately. But no, the data shows that the art of bunting for a base hit is coming back! Bunt hits per game are up 29% from last year—and the hitters are more successful when they try for one. The batting average on bunt hit attempts is .635, up from .482 last year. And yes, those scrappy D-Backs lead baseball with five bunt hits ... Weirdest early season stat: among the nine hitters with the worst drop in average exit velocity are Cal Raleigh (3), Aaron Judge (4), Manny Machado (5), Juan Soto (6) and Ronald Acuña Jr. (9).
Quote of the Week
I really liked this observation from Twins manager Derek Shelton, who in between managing jobs worked in the media and now finds he must switch gears to be more positive. It says more about the media business, where negativity travels faster and can be leveraged for attention, than it does the baseball business:
“The negative component to the media is not that the media is spewing the negative. You always have to be able to critique things that are going on. It’s part of what you guys do and it’s what I was doing then.
“And I think getting back to this side of it and really realizing the majority of stuff that’s talked about is what we’re not doing or what we should do. And I want to make sure we’re focusing on positive things. There are going to be things every night that regardless of the game and how well it’s played that is screwed up. And a lot of times it becomes the highlight, like, ‘this guy didn’t do this’ and ‘he didn’t do that.’ I want to make sure we’re focusing on what we are doing well while still teaching to the moments when we do make mistakes.”
Breakdown of the Week
The Tigers have a special player in Kevin McGonigle, who walks more than he strikes out, has very good pop for someone who is only 5’9” and at 21 with only 46 games above A ball before this year is a plug-and-play impact major leaguer.
You must check out the breakdown here of how McGonigle plays the game with a higher baseball IQ than most veterans. Amazing stuff from someone so young.
You can also check out my McGonigle comp: Dustin Pedroia.
“Pedroia probably had to work a little harder for his power than Kevin does,” says Tigers manager A.J. Hinch. “Kevin probably has a little better bat speed. But the zone control is like Mookie [Betts]. He hits the ball hard. He hits the right pitches. He’s a small statured guy with lightning hands.
“He’s unflappable. He’s not cocky at all. And he makes those adjustments [in the breakdown video] every game. He’s an intense game planner. You can get him. He’s not perfect by any means. But the competition’s real. And that’s probably like Dustin Pedroia that way.”
TV on TV This Week
Cubs at Phillies, Monday, 6:30 p.m. ET (FS1)
Mariners at Padres, Thursday, 8:30 p.m. ET (MLB Network)
What in the world is going on with Cal Raleigh? I’ll do a deep dive into the slow start of the Mariners’ catcher as the NL city with the longest wait for a first World Series title (since 1969) hosts the team from the AL city with the longest such wait (since 1977).
More MLB from Sports Illustrated
- Yankees Use Successful ABS Challenge in Wild Ninth-Inning Rally to Snap Losing Streak
- Orioles Manager Craig Albernaz Hit in Face By Line Drive Into Dugout
- What the Bunched Up MLB Standings Really Say About the State of All 30 Teams
- Daily Dinger: Best MLB Home Run Prop Bet Picks Today (Bet on Paul Goldschmidt to Hit Home Run vs. Angels)
This article was originally published on www.si.com as Eight Early Effects of ABS On MLB.
