Ten years ago, a takeaway coffee costing $6 would have been scandalous. Twenty years before that, you’d have been shocked by the idea of paying more than $2 a litre for fuel.
Are we nearing a time when Australians pay $1 for an egg at the supermarket? And what would it mean for our breakfast habits?
You may have noticed eggs becoming more expensive and harder to find over the last six months. It came under national spotlight in the final week of the federal election campaign when Anthony Albanese and Peter Dutton were asked if they knew the price of a dozen eggs.
Dutton was a little off the mark when he told Seven’s leaders’ debate he thought they cost $4.20. Albanese answered $7 “if you can find them” – closer to the carton Seven News chose, which cost $8.80.
Australia’s egg consumption is high by international standards. ANZ estimates Australians eat about 250 to 260 eggs each a year, compared with our global counterparts eating an average of 173 eggs annually. (China, with an average of 367 a year for each person, has the highest per capita consumption of eggs in the world.)
But the staple food is in short supply, which is causing its cost to rise dramatically.
The price of eggs jumped by 11.9% in the 12 months to February, data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics showed. This was the third-biggest increase in any item recorded by the ABS during that period – behind lamb, goat meat and tobacco – and far outpaced the 3.1% increase in the broader food and beverage category.
Pays to shop around
So how much is a carton of eggs? Guardian Australia decided to find out.
A grocer in Melbourne’s north was selling two different brands of free-range eggs for more than $12 a dozen. The butcher offered two brands, priced at $12.99 or $13.99.
At the major supermarkets, the prices – and options – were more varied. The nearby Woolworths was selling a dozen Surf Coast Eggs caged eggs for $6.80. A dozen Pace Farm caged eggs cost $7.30. The Woolworths own brand free-range eggs were $8.50 a dozen.
A few brands had cracked the $1 an egg mark already. Joanne’s “organic hencoop” eggs cost $12.95 a dozen. Twelve Sunny Queen free-range eggs were $13. A free-range dozen from Sth Gippsland Eggs cost $12.20.
At Coles, the prices were harder to gauge. All but two brands had no prices marked below them, only names and barcodes. Twelve Sunny Queen barn-laid eggs cost $6.60.
‘Skyrocketing’ cost, cafes say
A Woolworths spokesperson said egg supply had “continued to improve” but it was “still too soon to say” when it would return to normal and the supermarket would “do its best” to manage the effect on prices. A spokesperson for Coles said it expected availability to improve in the coming months.
The shortage of eggs has also affected prices at restaurants and cafes. The Restaurant & Catering Association says eggs are at their most expensive in the past 15 years. Emilio Rogliano, owner of Bellboy cafe in Melbourne’s Brunswick East, says the cost has “skyrocketed”.
“We went from $76 for a case of 180 eggs, which works out about 35 cents an egg, this time last year,” he says. “Now it’s $110 – up to nearly 65 cents for an egg.” They have absorbed most of the increase, he says, but recently increased the cost of eggs as an add-on item by about 30 cents.
Bird flu causing shortages
In mid-2024, several strains of H7 HPAI avian influenza, or bird flu, were detected at 16 properties in south-eastern Australia. The protocol after any reported infection is to euthanase all birds on a farm. The federal government estimates 1.8 million birds were killed last year.
The problem in the US is far worse. Americans are grappling with H5N1 strain of avian influenza, which can be transmitted to mammals and has infected or killed more than 168 million farmed birds, according to the Centre for Disease Control.
In the US, eggs are now so expensive that people are smuggling them across borders. There has been a 48% increase in eggs being detained at ports of entry this fiscal year compared with the same time last fiscal year, according to the country’s customs and border protection agency.
High prices are ‘new normal’
ANZ’s executive director of agribusiness insights, Michael Whitehead, says there are other factors behind the increase in egg prices apart from the lag in supply caused by bird flu.
The price of keeping and transporting chickens has increased due to inflation, Whitehead says, and the industry is undergoing a transformation as it prepares to phase out caged-egg production before a national ban comes into effect in 2036.
As far as prices go, Whitehead says there will be eggs that cost $1 and eggs that cost even more, but he doesn’t expect the cheaper ranges to inflate to that level.
Whitehead says there is “every chance” that paying $8 for a “standard” carton of a dozen eggs in a supermarket – 66 cents an egg – becomes “the new normal”.
Consumers may buy fewer eggs, he says, but “at that level, [the cost] is probably still not prohibitive”.
Prof Gary Mortimer, an expert in consumer behaviour at the Queensland University of Technology, expects people who regularly eat eggs to continue to buy them even if it means forgoing other grocery items.
“Alternatively, if eggs aren’t a fundamental part of their diet, they may choose just to not purchase eggs,” he says. “Eggs are astronomical at the moment, aren’t they?”
