The Narendra Modi government’s announcement to finally proceed with the Census has drawn a flurry of editorial commentary – welcoming the move but also questioning the delay and the political stakes riding on the exercise.
The Census will be conducted in two phases over 2026 and 2027, with March 1, 2027 as the effective date for the provision of data. There has been a Census every decade since 1881 but that cycle was broken in 2021 when the Modi government failed to carry out the exercise citing Covid. The exercise has also acquired political undertones with the planned collection of caste data as well as a possible link to delimitation.
While The Telegraph called out the pandemic as a “specious” excuse for postponement, The Hindustan Times hinted that the real dilemma may have been over whether to enumerate caste – an exercise not undertaken nationwide since 1931.
The Telegraph noted that the Covid-19 outbreak “did not stop the government from conducting numerical and political engagements on a mass scale. Elections as well as numerous surveys have taken place since the pandemic struck: only the census remained stuck. In fact, data suggest that India figured among the 44 nations that had not conducted their decadal census; as many as 143 countries began this numerical exercise after the commencement of the pandemic. The delay, quite naturally, has had serious consequences.”
The Hindu noted that “while more reliable data on the socio-economic standing of caste groups can inform development planning, the potential for further social segmentation makes caste enumeration a double-edged sword”.
“A critical aspect of the upcoming Census is its link to the next delimitation of Lok Sabha and Assembly constituencies, which will redraw India’s electoral map. The Constitution mandates that the next inter-State delimitation be based on population figures from the first Census after 2026. The current distribution of Lok Sabha seats is based on the 1971 population spread. With the reference date for the Census set as March 1, 2027, for most of the country, this can pave the way for the next delimitation exercise. States that have experienced lower population growth in recent decades, particularly in the peninsular region, have expressed concern that their parliamentary representation will diminish if population becomes the sole criterion for redistribution. The Centre has yet to clarify its stance on this matter.”
The Business Standard also observed that it needed “careful handling” to manage the “political fallout”.
The Indian Express said the exercise will make policymaking more informed.
“In addition to providing population estimates, the Census also collects data on several household socio-economic indicators. This provides vital information on the changes in the country over the decades. Alongside, the Census data is also used in various surveys, and by both government agencies and private entities in the formulation of policies and strategies. It thus serves an invaluable purpose, aiding policy making in India.”
On Thursday, The Times of India, in an editorial, said the exercise will fill governance gaps, but underlined the need for clarity on the broad idea of month or year when population figures could be expected and the plans on a delimitation commission.
“That most big states ruled by opposition parties are in the South, which has successfully controlled population growth, and BJP’s political dominance is concentrated in the North and West makes any debate on delimitation fraught. Anything short of clarity will make a polity already characterised by bitter divides even more fractured. India, in a relatively sweet spot economically, simply doesn’t need a hot-blooded political fight, pitting North against South.”
The Hindustan Times had hailed the announcement while noting that the “reasons for the delay — it could have been the dilemma on whether to enumerate caste or not — are best known to the government”.
It had flagged two concerns. One, it said, was the need for a “detailed timeline of data releases”, which “should also be announced forthwith”. It said the census will enumerate caste in the entire country for the first time after 1931. “This is easier said than done given the vast heterogeneity in India’s social landscape and the political sensitivities while matching them with constitutionally mandated social categories for affirmative actions. It is important that the design for this enumeration is done transparently to avoid post-facto controversies. A similar consultative and transparent approach should be followed for other data collection heads as well. India has changed drastically since 2011 when the last census was carried out.”
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