Nov. 14--In November 2007, the presidential campaign picture was clear: Rudy Giuliani had a comfortable lead over second-place Fred Thompson on the Republican side, and Hillary Rodham Clinton was running away with the Democratic race. When actual voters got involved a couple of months later, however, the picture changed drastically.
What's worth keeping in mind about this year's contest is something that is easy to forget after four GOP debates: It's still early. Voters are not at the stage of walking up the aisle to exchange vows. They're at the freshman mixer stage, with some eager to pair off as soon as possible but most avoiding any firm commitments and keeping their options open. Some haven't even made it to the dance yet.
But many in the GOP are worried by the way things are going. The Washington Post reports that "there is growing anxiety bordering on panic among Republican elites about the dominance and durability of Donald Trump and Ben Carson" -- which has some of them so desperate they dream of persuading Mitt Romney to enter the race.
Recent events suggest the panic may be needless. Trump lacked his usual ability to command the stage at Tuesday's debate, getting booed when he griped about Carly Fiorina's interruptions. On Thursday evening, in Fort Dodge, Iowa, he did his best to implode with an extended rant vilifying Carson and wondering how the retired neurosurgeon could be polling so well: "How stupid are the people of Iowa?" he asked. It might be enough to pop the Trump bubble.
Carson has been struggling with his own self-inflicted wounds, as news organizations have raised questions about many of his claims about his past, from allegedly attacking a classmate with a knife to turning down an offer to attend West Point. The debate exposed a more serious weakness: his shaky grasp of some crucial issues.
When asked about how to deal with the Islamic State, Carson sounded like he had been awakened from a nap, delivering a confused answer that somehow included a swipe at China. It was a painful reminder that he's a complete novice on national security, which is bound to hurt him in a party that puts the highest importance on keeping Americans safe.
When these two start to slide in the polls, as they are likely to do, the party has better alternatives. Marco Rubio shined on foreign affairs Tuesday. "We can't even have an economy if we're not safe," he told Rand Paul, who wants to cut the defense budget. Ted Cruz was also sharp: "You think defending this nation is expensive? Try not defending it." Rubio and Cruz later clashed on immigration in a way that showed their mastery of the subject.
Jeb Bush was better in this debate than in past ones, and he may yet prove to be the tortoise in a field of hares. He excites few Republican voters, but his solid conservative record as governor of Florida has yet to get the attention it deserves. Besides, well-known veterans from the party's center are usually the ones who win the nomination -- such as Mitt Romney in 2012, John McCain in 2008, and George W. Bush in 2000. That's not to say Bush will be the nominee; some other candidates have ambitions of uniting Republican factions -- and could take command of the primary season.
