April 05--Political strategist James Carville once said, "I used to think if there was reincarnation, I wanted to come back as the president or the pope or a .400 baseball hitter. But now I want to come back as the bond market. You can intimidate everyone."
Carville is a Democrat, but if he were pondering his next life today, he might opt instead to take the form of a Republican national convention delegate. He'd be guaranteed to evoke not only fear but attention, flattery, favors and love.
In most presidential election cycles, convention delegates play a ceremonial role. They fill up hotels in the host city, enjoy meals and drinks with fellow party regulars, don silly hats, sit through endless speeches and cheer frequently to show their enthusiasm.
They also cast their votes, which are mostly predetermined, during the roll call of the states to formally choose a nominee. Then they go home.
But that's in normal years, when voters decide the outcome long before the delegates step onto the convention floor. This year, at least on the Republican side, things are shaping up differently. Neither Donald Trump nor Ted Cruz nor John Kasich looks likely to amass a majority by the time the first gavel falls. The outcome may not have been decided on the campaign trail.
In that case, it will be decided in Quicken Loans Arena in Cleveland. For the first time in decades, the delegates could wield real power -- the power to actually choose a nominee who might occupy the White House for the next four years.
Some of these delegates are chosen in primaries, some in caucuses and others in state conventions. Some are selected by the candidates themselves, and some are taken from a list of approved aspirants. Stephen Hawking could probably make sense of it all.
But here's the crucial thing. On the first round of voting, and sometimes the second, most delegates are required to vote for a specific candidate, based on his showing back home. But should those rounds fail to produce a majority, things suddenly get interesting.
At that point, the great majority can switch to a different candidate. A Trump delegate could vote for Cruz. A Cruz delegate could vote for Kasich. Or either could vote for someone not yet in the race.
One scenario is that Cruz and Kasich will join forces to block Trump. Another is that delegates for Trump and Cruz will decide the best chance of winning the election is to nominate Kasich. Yet another is that the delegates will turn to House Speaker Paul Ryan to save the party from defeat.
Much depends on who the delegates are. Trump won Arizona, capturing all 58 slots, but Cruz is reportedly recruiting supporters to fill 55 of those, hoping to bring them over after the first round. "Cruz will get most/all Arizona delegates on second ballot," Republican strategist Sean Noble told the Washington Examiner.
In North Dakota, delegates are chosen in a convention, and they aren't required to vote for a particular candidate or to say whom they support. Cruz claimed that 18 of the 25 picked Sunday favor him. Trump's campaign says the correct number is four.
Pennsylvania has a primary April 26, but the winner stands to pick up just 17 of the state's 71 delegates. The others who are elected will be free to decide for themselves, which puts a burden on candidates to get their supporters to run. Trump could win the overall vote in Pennsylvania and find his delegates outnumbered.
In the Louisiana primary, Trump and Cruz each won 18 delegates. But Cruz is working to win over five others won by Marco Rubio before he dropped out of the race, and five more who will be unpledged -- which prompted Trump to threaten a lawsuit.
If the convention ends up being vigorously contested, it should produce a fascinating, educational and unpredictable spectacle. Meanwhile, each of the Republican delegates will have more new friends than a Powerball winner. They should enjoy it while it lasts.
