The lineups for next year's Republican and Democratic primaries are essentially set, and we're finally going to get an answer to the question that could define Texas politics for years: Are Democrats truly competitive, or was 2018 merely a Beto buzz?
The response will go a long way toward determining what's happening in Tarrant County, where Beto O'Rourke narrowly beat Sen. Ted Cruz. Democrats are confident they can turn several legislative districts blue.
And increasingly, what's happening here is becoming a bellwether for the rest of the state. Tarrant is the last big urban county in Texas where Republicans still dominate, so if Democrats are ever going to break through in a statewide race they must do better here.
Right up to the final moment Dec. 9 that candidates could file to run in the March primaries, some Democrats probably held out hope that O'Rourke would change his mind and challenge Sen. John Cornyn.
But that was never likely. There were no other major surprises in the final days of candidate filing. And there are only a handful of truly competitive primaries in either party, headlined by the Democrats' multicandidate jump ball for who will take on Cornyn. Otherwise, the real action will be in the November general election.
The absence of O'Rourke or a candidate with his pull at the top of the ticket isn't the only major difference from 2018 that will determine how Tarrant and Texas go next year. In a presidential year, that race greatly influences what happens all the way down the ballot.
That could mean a continued surge of anti-Trump voters to the polls. But Republicans maintain a structural advantage, and the heat surrounding the Trump presidency and impeachment will motivate plenty of Republicans to go to the polls to defend him, too. And the overall effect will be much different if his opponent is, say, Elizabeth Warren rather than Joe Biden.
Another factor that could make 2020 very different from 2018 is simply that Cornyn is not Cruz. The senior senator, seeking his fourth term, doesn't generate the antipathy that Cruz did, especially coming off his 2016 presidential run.
Cornyn wears his Republican badge proudly as a Senate leader and Trump defender. He remains a serious legislator on issues important to Texas, such as health care and trade, eager for bipartisanship where it's possible and ready for battle where it's not. Having drawn no significant primary opponent and likely to face a relatively unknown Democratic challenger, he looks formidable.
Races further down the ballot are much more likely to be competitive. Several Republican-held congressional seats are open, giving Republican newcomers a chance but also giving Democrats a shot in districts where they haven't competed in years. Chief among them is the 24th, which includes much of Northeast Tarrant County. Rep. Kenny Marchant is retiring, and it's a Democratic target.
Several Tarrant County districts in the Texas House will help determine whether Republicans keep control of that chamber or whether Democrats win it back for the first time in nearly two decades.
Overall, both parties are behaving as if Texas will be in play. Like the rest of us, they don't quite know yet how competitive the situation is _ more than in most recent elections, but up to 2018 standards? That will be the big story for Texas and Tarrant County politics for the next 11 months.
