July 15--Tuesday dawned with word that Western and Iranian negotiators in Vienna produced an agreement to curb Tehran's outlaw nuclear program, after a 17-day negotiating marathon that capped 18 months of talks.
President Barack Obama declared that the deal would shut off all pathways for Iran to build a nuclear weapon. That premise will be tested by Congress in upcoming hearings, and in other capitals where this complicated 100-plus page agreement deserves a long, hard scrub.
No one yet fully knows what trapdoors and ambiguities are built in this deal. When the interim agreement was signed in April, starkly different interpretations between the White House and Iran's leaders quickly arose.
At first glance, this deal looks better than we expected during the final talks, when U.S. negotiators appeared to be eager to cave to Iran's demands. If Iran fulfills its end of the bargain, it likely won't be able to build a nuclear weapon for at least a decade. Its ability to "break out" -- expel international inspectors and quickly build a bomb -- should stretch to a year from the current two to three months. Its ability to "sneak out" -- construct a bomb secretly beyond the gaze of inspectors -- will be curbed.
Most of the deal's provisions expire in 10 to 15 years, the blink of an eye. Iran could then again be on the threshold of being a nuclear state, with technical wherewithal and resources to threaten its neighbors and the world.
Here are some key takeaways from the deal:
--Iran reduces its uranium-enriching centrifuge inventory by two-thirds, to about 6,000. It pledges to eliminate almost all of its stockpile of low-enriched uranium, likely by selling it on the open market or blending it down. Iran will overhaul its nuclear reactor at Arak so that it will not produce weapons-grade plutonium. All good.
--Iran commits to allow intrusive inspections, including inspections of its military sites. That's a critical provision, though it is not as strong as the "anywhere, anytime" snap inspections that would best protect international interests. Disputes about inspections will be handled by a commission with members from the U.S., Iran, Russia, China and four U.S. allies. That means Russia, China and Iran won't have enough votes to control decisions of the commission. It doesn't take much imagination to see how such a commission could get tangled in deliberations long enough, though, for Iran to cover up cheating on its commitments.
--Iran had demanded sanctions be lifted at the moment the deal was signed. The U.S. wanted sanctions removed in stages. The apparent compromise: Most nuclear-related economic sanctions will be lifted only when Iran meets its initial obligations under the deal. That includes coming clean on its history of nuclear weapons development. International Atomic Energy Agency Director General Yukiya Amano announced Tuesday that his agency has signed an agreement to clarify long-standing questions about Iran's past nuclear work by the end of the year. Sanctions would not be lifted before that. This is key, because Iran has reneged three times on past promises to provide the same information.
--The nuclear deal appears to create a significant "snapback" provision that would allow the U.S. or other Security Council members to reimpose sanctions quickly if Iran violates the terms. That could turn out to be ultimate determination of whether this deal becomes a diplomatic dud: If Iran cheats, will the U.S. and its allies respond quickly and forcefully and without interference from Russia and China?
The deal is "not built on trust -- it is built on verification," Obama said Tuesday.
Now it's time for Congress to ... verify that.
Leading up to this day, we anticipated that this deal would be so weak it should be rejected out of hand. There is enough here, though, to argue that Congress has reason to do an honest and thorough evaluation. The wisdom of the decision to provide a 60-day congressional review before a vote on approval -- a review Obama reluctantly accepted -- is more apparent than ever.
The negotiators of this agreement have had a heavy weight on them. Failure to reach an agreement heightened the prospect of a military confrontation. Just as failure to reach an agreement that forced Iran to be an honest and verifiable partner heightened the prospect of a military confrontation. That ultimate deterrence remains in play.
