March 26--Afghanistan's new president, Ashraf Ghani, came to Washington this week and expressed something that we hadn't heard from his predecessor, Hamid Karzai: gratitude. Ghani praised the sacrifices of American troops who have fought to defend his country against the Taliban. "You stood shoulder to shoulder with us, and I'd like to say thank you."
In a speech at the Pentagon, he told U.S. soldiers and their families: "Each one of you has left a legacy, but I also understand that Afghanistan has marked you."
That legacy -- the fate of Afghanistan -- remains uncertain.
On Tuesday, President Barack Obama announced he would slow the planned drawdown of U.S. troops in Afghanistan, at Ghani's request. Instead of a planned cut to 5,500 troops this spring, Obama will leave 9,800 troops through the end of the year.
Smart move. That U.S. force is vital to shore up Afghanistan's army in the fierce spring fighting season against the Taliban. The shift will allow more time for U.S. trainers to prepare Afghanistan's military to shoulder the fight against the Taliban alone. It will allow American commanders to keep two major military bases open, to conduct anti-terror drone strikes against the Taliban and other terrorists on both sides of the Afghanistan-Pakistan border.
Obama still pledges to withdraw all but about 1,000 troops by the time he leaves office in 2017. But that increasingly looks like wishful thinking. Afghanistan's war cannot be settled on Obama's -- any president's -- political timetable.
Chaos rules the Middle East.
Yemen, which Obama declared last year to be a model of America's counterterrorism success, is torn by at least four groups -- including al-Qaida and a nascent Islamic State franchise -- vying for dominance. America's potent anti-terror drone program has been sidelined.
Iraq, with help from Iran-backed militias, is still battling to regain control of some of its major cities from the Islamic State. That terrorist army cruised to early victories against a U.S.-trained Iraqi force that likely would have performed better had not all U.S. troops left the country in 2011.
The Syrian civil war is grinding into its fifth year.
Pakistan is battling Taliban terrorists who slaughter children.
And the military gains in Afghanistan remain fragile. Afghan security forces took over primary responsibility for combat operations last year. Since then, more than 9,000 troops and police have been killed in action. Last fall, a U.S. general in Afghanistan called that pace "not sustainable in the long term."
The U.S. has a strong partner in Ghani, a U.S.-educated former World Bank official. The recalcitrant and erratic Karzai had refused to sign an agreement that allowed U.S. troops to remain in Afghanistan; Ghani signed the pact as one of his first acts as president.
Last year, the Afghan army thwarted Taliban thrusts to recapture major towns. But Ghani says he needs time -- and a robust force of U.S. troops -- to ensure that Afghan forces can prevent Afghanistan from becoming "a launching pad for global terrorism."
Taliban leaders are patient. They won't respond to Ghani's invitation for peace talks as long as they know that most U.S. troops will hit the exits by 2017.
Whisking away U.S. troops on that deadline invites a Taliban siege of Kabul that will confront America's next president as soon as he or she takes office. And the message then from Ghani? It won't be thanks.
