April 07--In the flush of last week's victory in Nigeria's presidential election, Muhammadu Buhari was asked by the BBC what he plans to do about Boko Haram, the country's Muslim terrorists. Would he negotiate or would he hit them hard?
His answer was honest, and unnerving.
"Hit them hard with what?"
Maybe he was playing it cool, or wry, but it's no secret Nigeria, with Africa's largest economy, punches way under its weight class when it comes to military power and competence. The president-elect, a former military strongman who now embraces democracy, needs to fix the army and do it fast.
Boko Haram presents a serious threat to Nigeria and beyond, because the group now aligns itself with the terrorist Islamic State. The risk is similar to that in Somalia or Afghanistan or Syria: When law in a region breaks down and militant groups are allowed to run rampant, terrorism festers and spreads.
In Nigeria, Boko Haram has run wild for six years. The group, with a fighting force of 10,000 or more, has killed thousands of civilians and at times controlled much of the northeast. In its highest-profile incident, Boko Haram last year kidnapped 276 schoolgirls. It still holds most of them, whereabouts unknown.
Also missing in action: Nigeria's army.
While the efforts to repulse Boko Haram should be led by Nigeria, the ones doing most of the leading and fighting are the forces of neighboring Chad and Niger. In a New York Times interview last month, Chad's president, Idriss Deby, who has the best military force in the region, sounded irritated at the Nigerians' show-up-late-if-at-all battle ethic: "We can't go any further in Nigeria. We're not an army of occupation." He claimed his forces hadn't seen a Nigerian soldier in months.
Another anecdote: After the schoolgirls were abducted, Nigeria missed an opportunity to search for them from the skies. The country spent millions on Israeli surveillance drones in 2006 but never maintained or flew them, Reuters reported.
The problems with Nigeria's military reflect a culture of corruption and mismanagement that runs deep through Nigeria. The nation has oil money and a business class, but poverty is endemic and there is a sharp schism between the Christian south and the Muslim north. No leader has been able to unite Nigeria, or clean it up.
That said, the election of Buhari marks a turning point: After 16 years of democracy, this is the first transition from an incumbent to an opposition leader. Buhari, 72, didn't win because of his pristine governance record: He's a former general who ruled Nigeria for more than a year after a 1983 coup. He won because voters got tired of the ineffectual Goodluck Jonathan, and he promises to go after Boko Haram, and corruption.
"I assure you that Boko Haram will soon know the strength of our collective will," Buhari said in his acceptance speech. He told the BBC he'd fight Boko Haram with "our neighbors" and the international community.
Buhari takes office May 29. Chad, the United States and other nations can bolster him in the effort to defeat Boko Haram. In recent weeks, African forces have reported success in repelling the insurgents. For the first time in years, there is some faint hope that Nigeria can prevail over terror.
