Back in May when coronavirus case counts were swiftly declining and confidence was high that we might finally be near the end of this terrible pandemic, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention quit routinely tracking what was then a very small number of breakthrough virus infections in people who were fully vaccinated.
May seems like a long time ago now.
As the delta variant of the virus is now dominant in the United States and pushing at a swift pace case counts to levels we haven't seen since spring, public health officials now are missing a key metric in the ongoing fight to stop the coronavirus. How many of these infections are occurring in people who have been vaccinated?
What's worse is that while most states continued publicly tracking breakthrough infections even after the CDC dropped that practice except in cases of hospitalization and death, Pennsylvania is one of the few states that followed the federal agency's lead. We do not know how many of Pennsylvania's rapidly increasing number of coronavirus cases are so-called breakthrough cases.
This must be addressed immediately. Pennsylvania must tally breakthrough cases and, equally important, encourage testing among vaccinated people who suspect they are infected.
Since the beginning of the pandemic, accurate and timely data about the spread of the coronavirus has been one of the most important tools for keeping the public safe.
And accurate, detailed data about the current infections in the state — including whether they are occurring in vaccinated people — will help us figure out whether another of the most important tools, the vaccine, is protecting us adequately.
We do know that this week the state's daily case numbers jumped to more than 1,400, pushing the seven-day average to more than five times what it was a month earlier.
It is reasonable to expect that Pennsylvania's breakthrough case rates are similar to those in states that have been tracking the infections. That means breakthrough cases likely represent only a very small portion of cases and that unvaccinated Pennsylvanians still face the biggest risk. In New Jersey, for instance, breakthrough cases account for about 0.05% of coronavirus cases.
The recent surge in infections is the inevitable consequence of failing to vaccinate more of the state's residents. But as we must frustratingly return to the days of anxiously watching case counts rise and weighing risks and smart public-health policies, we must have a complete set of data with which to work.
The timing is especially critical as students — many of them too young to be vaccinated — are about to head back to full classrooms for a new school year.
Even if the state and federal government health officials had been counting reported breakthrough cases, public health experts believe those numbers would be an undercount as many vaccinated people who get sick experience mild symptoms or no symptoms at all. These patients are less likely to seek out virus tests or land in a doctor's office or hospital where their cases might be counted. Yet, they can be passing the sickness.
Pennsylvania must ramp up a more robust tracking and public reporting system for coronavirus cases and the state must immediately add breakthrough cases to that data. More information is more power in the war against this pandemic.
