Feb. 11--Syrian President Bashar Assad could now be on the verge of doing what was unthinkable just months ago -- crushing rebel forces and claiming victory.
The Syrian rebel stronghold in Aleppo is teetering under intense assault by Russian warplanes, Iranian militias and Syrian government troops. The government and its allies could launch a "starve or surrender" siege against hundreds of thousands of residents stranded in Syria's largest city. Some rebels have already surrendered. "Bye-bye revolution," one rebel spokesman near Aleppo said in a text message Friday, The New York Times reports.
And peace talks? The last round fizzled. The prospects for the next round, scheduled to begin later this month, are just as bleak.
If Assad's forces take Aleppo, if the rebels scatter ... then what?
"The full encirclement of Aleppo would fuel a humanitarian catastrophe, shatter opposition morale, fundamentally challenge Turkish strategic ambitions and deny the (Syrian) opposition its most valuable bargaining chip before the international community," the Institute for the Study of War warned in a policy memo last week.
Or it could be ... even worse.
An Assad victory likely will launch thousands more refugees toward an already overwhelmed Europe. European powers are calling on a reluctant Turkey to open its borders to more refugees, adding to the 2.5 million already in that country.
Meanwhile, overwhelmed European countries are desperately clamping down on their borders, and mulling plans to deport thousands of asylum-seekers who can't prove they face grave risks at home.
Every week brings news of more refugees dying when boats capsize on the way to Greece or Turkey. Even in winter, the trek of the desperate continues. That desperation only grows if Assad consolidates his control over Syria. Look out, Europe.
Big question: Will a triumphant Assad turn his attention to Islamic State forces that have carved up part of his country for their self-declared caliphate and have now surged into lawless Libya? Will he try to reassemble Syria, or be content to rule over what's left of his former state?
Assad will do whatever Russian President Vladimir Putin and Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei support with their warplanes and militias. Without them, his government forces would not be closing in on Aleppo. Or pushing north to within 20 miles of the Turkish border, where the U.S. and Turkey had hoped to create a rebel-held enclave to battle Islamic State forces approaching from the east.
The U.S. strategy in Syria remains hopelessly muddled and ineffective. Aside from helping organize a recent, stillborn Geneva peace conference, the U.S. has failed to help train and equip Syrian rebels or counter Putin's move to shore up his ally.
An Assad victory scrambles an already complex and confusing set of alliances on the ground. For instance: Turkey, a vital U.S. ally, has demanded that the U.S. choose sides between Ankara and the independence-minded Kurds, another vital U.S. ally in the battle against Islamic State in Iraq and Syria.
President Barack Obama predicted Russia would be entangled in a quagmire in Syria. Instead Putin's bold war plan appears to be paying off handsomely.
But don't hand Putin the Nobel Peace Prize just yet.
Assad won't likely be satisfied to rule over half a country. Nor is he blind to the threat posed by Islamic State forces. They've claimed a big chunk of his country. They want more.
An Assad triumph over the rebels would leave only one major opponent standing -- Islamic State. That would force the U.S. and its allies to choose between Islamic State or the Assad regime -- or stay on the sidelines. The choice is obvious, if painful.
Game, set, match -- Assad.
