Dec. 18--Nearly 200 countries have committed to reducing the sources of pollution primarily responsible for climate change, the most significant outcome of the climate agreement reached last weekend in Paris.
This is the first time the world's governments have agreed they all have a responsibility to limit greenhouse gas emissions. Previous negotiations to clean up the atmosphere fizzled because developing countries refused to sign on.
So good news, as far as it goes.
While the Paris document is clear on its aspirations, it bets a lot on trust. The commitments to cut pollutants are goals, not legally binding guarantees. Those goals will be graded in decades to come. Most of the people who were exchanging high-fives over the Paris agreement will be out of power in a matter of years. That includes President Barack Obama, who leaves office in 13 months. So one question is whether their political heirs will share their commitment.
Obama's representatives scrambled in the last hours of the negotiation to make a one-word change to soften the deal, replacing the word "shall" with "should" in a key sentence about each country meeting its target for cutting carbon. That likely avoided a ratification fight in the United States Senate, but it also means the next president will have leeway to decide if he or she wants to embrace the agreement. The Republican presidential candidates have had nothing good to say about it.
You could find hedging in the developing world too. India signed on but committed only to cut the pace of growth in pollution. India is home to some of the Earth's dirtiest cities but also has 300 million people who live without electricity. Prime Minister Narendra Modi wants to build more coal-fired power plants, which would turn on the lights but also pollute the skies.
We do see, though, that developed and developing nations are waking up to the blunt realities here. Take Beijing, where, on windless days, smog hangs over the city like a brownish cloak. At one point during the Paris conference, Chinese authorities back home declared an environmental state of emergency. Kids stayed home from school to avoid exposure to the poisonous air.
Environmental degradation like that is a reason to think the world will take the Paris accord seriously. Pollution is a visible warning on climate change. We're talking about the same problem: carbon emissions that taint the skies. First they sting throats and eyes. Then over time those greenhouse gases heat up the planet, melting the ice caps and causing the seas to rise.
China's decision to support the Paris summit is a direct result of its recognition that it must stop spewing garbage into the sky. Pollution not only makes the country's citizens miserable, it makes them angry. Poisoned air and water may represent the biggest threat to the Communist Party's legitimacy.
There's nothing to celebrate in China's late awakening to its responsibilities to the planet, but everywhere in the world there is pressure between economic and environmental priorities. Only when the crisis becomes serious enough do we see concerted action.
Watch for this same dynamic to play out as the damage caused by climate change becomes more apparent. We got a clue to that in Paris from the foreign minister of the tiny Marshall Islands, Anthony de Brum, who took on a significant negotiating role as he talked about his nation's imperiled future. "We're trying to beat back the sea," he said.
