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Edinburgh Live
Edinburgh Live
National
Indigo Stafford

Edinburgh could register 'fewer Covid cases than Orkney and Shetlands' by next week

Edinburgh is currently in tier three and Nicola Sturgeon has said that it is "highly unlikely that we will see any significant easing of restrictions announced".

But according to data modelling by experts at Imperial College London, by just 15 November, Edinburgh is likely to register as little cases as Orkney and the Shetland Islands.

The map created by Imperial College London analyses current Covid data to predict where in the UK is set to become a 'Covid hotspot' and according to their predictions, the city of Edinburgh will continue to see a downward trend in the number of coronavirus cases being registered.

Shetland Islands show a 30 per cent chance of becoming a Covid hotspot (Imperial College London)
Edinburgh will have just a 10 per cent change of registering more than 100 cases (Imperial College London)

The 'coronavirus forecast' predicts that from 15 November, Edinburgh will have just a 10 percent chance of registering more than 100 cases in a week: lower than level one regions Shetland Island who will have a 30 percent chance of having more than 100 cases and Orkney Islands who will have a 12 percent chance.

The projections assume that lockdown levels and behaviour patterns will not change for about a week before the end of observations (The site also notes that an increase in cases in an area could be an increase in testing rather than an increase in transmission.)

Sadly the situation is not as positive for the rest of the Lothians as the Map predicts that by 15 November, Midlothian, West Lothian and East Lothian will all remain 'Covid hotspots'.

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East Lothian is to have a 60 percent chance of registering hundreds of cases, while Midlothian will have a 69 percent chance and West Lothian will have a 77 percent chance.

You can check out the data for yourself here.

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