Possession is once again nine 10ths of the score. A decade that started with teams scared of being caught in possession has relented: the ball is spending more time in hands than in the air and fireworks this November should explode beyond the fifth of the month.
Rugby moves in cycles with fashions not so much changing as re-emerging after a vacation. When Eddie Jones was in charge of Australia in the 2000s, they were the masters of taking play through any number of phases, 30 or 40 at a time, waiting for the opposition to make an error. Today they have reincarnated into Exeter, a team who are comfortable starting a move near their own line and patiently working its way down the field, aware that attacks are given more latitude at the breakdown than defences.
This is the midway point between World Cups and the imbalance may have been addressed by the time Japan hosts international rugby’s main event in 2019. The way the game is played – with the exception of New Zealand, who are an exception to most rules – sways on law directives with at least one invariably kicking in before a World Cup. The prevailing trend is for continuity and those who slow down possession are discouraged. But, as the game is a contest for possession, checks are put in place when the application of the law tilts too far in one direction.
Which is why Jones, now England’s head coach, is more concerned with conditioning, combinations and competition in his squad than playing style which he says he will look at three months before the start of the World Cup when any new directives will be in place. From the moment he took over at the end of 2015 the Japan tournament has been the preoccupation of a man who guided Australia to the 2003 final, when they lost to the country he now coaches, and was part of South Africa’s management four years later when the Springboks beat England in the final.
He is far from alone. Even the All Blacks, who used to play to the same consistently high level year in year out, only to find that some teams were able to go above that for a few weeks when the World Cup reached the knockout stage, are pacing themselves, prepared to sacrifice results as they build for 2019 having lost some of their second-choice players to clubs in France and England.
There was a time when the autumn internationals could be viewed in isolation, the north’s opportunity to gauge the gap with the south and replenish bank accounts. But now matches are stations on a train trip that terminates in Japan.
Jones has been talking about resting some of his Lions this month, with Argentina, Australia and Samoa arriving at Twickenham, and his Wales counterpart, Warren Gatland, will use the four matches at the Principality Stadium to recalibrate his midfield as kicking gives way to handling: a year ago Wales were fixated by finishing in the top eight of the world rankings and avoiding a repeat of their 2015 World Cup pool when, after slumping to ninth, they found themselves in the same group as the hosts England and Australia.
“The World Cup is what we are judged by,” says Jones, whose only defeat in 20 matches in charge of England came in Dublin at the end of this year’s Six Nations. “If our World Cup is a disaster, will anyone remember 19 out of 20 wins? Or a grand slam? No. You have to enjoy what you are doing and keep on giving the fans great games of rugby but ultimately you have to be looking at the World Cup.”
England’s first opponents, Argentina, are and have been a disaster since finishing fourth in 2015. Their results since then have evoked the years when the Pumas were a second-tier nation: five victories in 22 Tests and two in their last 17, against Japan and Georgia, with Tokyo their only success on the road. Only players who are based at home and play for the Jaguares in Super Rugby are selected, which robs Argentina of Toulon’s Facundo Isa, Racing 92’s Juan Imhoff and Marcelo Bosch of Saracens, among others.
Daniel Hourcade, the Argentina head coach, believes the policy will be paying a dividend by the World Cup. The Jaguares improved in their second season of Super Rugby, winning seven matches compared with four and finishing three places higher, in 10th. Argentina failed to pick up even a bonus point in this year’s Rugby Championship, losing all six matches by a double-figure margin, but there were indications that constant exposure to leading sides was enhancing performance, just not for more than 60 minutes.
Wales under Gatland have exposed themselves to the cream of the south and again have a four-Test autumn, with Australia – a side they last defeated nine years ago – New Zealand and South Africa among their dates. Wales are looking to embrace the drift towards continuity by looking for a footballing option at 12 rather than someone moulded out of all three sections of the pack, as passing ability assumes a greater importance.
Gatland said this past week that southern hemisphere teams have an advantage because they are used to multi-phase play. He might also have said that they have the necessary skills and do not have to waste time in training working on the basics. Wales start with Australia, as they did last year, when the Wallabies played rugby from a different dimension in the opening 40 minutes and won 32-8.
It has been a chastening two years for Australia since they reached the World Cup final. They face England and Scotland after Wales, with their head coach, Michael Cheika, saying he will pick his strongest side every match because at the end of a year in which they had, before Saturday’s Test in Japan, a 50% record, he wants to develop a winning mentality. The full-back Israel Folau will be absent, though, left at home to rest.
South Africa, after a miserable 2016, also have a thumb out on the road to redemption. Ireland first up will test their recovery and, like Australia, they have predominantly chosen home-based players. Both could field a competitive team of expats who are based in France and England, an option they will surely give themselves in Japan in two years when winning will be everything.
Ireland have in the last year defeated the top two sides in the rankings, New Zealand and England, but they are less comfortable than some in the possession era, preferring to play for territory and force mistakes.
Scotland under Gregor Townsend will indulge in more risk-taking and their match against New Zealand, who in the past have given the reserves a run at Murrayfield, should be one of the most entertaining fixtures of the autumn internationals. And then there is France, the great enigma, who for once go into the autumn yet to be beaten at home in the year.
The World Cup hosts Japan, like Fiji and Samoa, have two matches against tier-one nations this month, while Georgia face Wales in Cardiff. They will feature in two of the six internationals played in the next three weekends, part of World Rugby’s policy of preparing them for the World Cup.
The tournament may be two years away but everyone in action in Europe this month is already looking east.
