Yukio Edano was elected Thursday as the first leader of a new opposition party, but already a slew of thorny problems are lining up to test his mettle.
Edano comfortably won the vote held to pick the leader of the party created by the merger of the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan, the Democratic Party for the People and other groups. The new party will largely follow the policies championed by the CDPJ, which Edano has led. However, the leadership race exposed gaping rifts between lawmakers from the CDPJ and the DPFP, leaving Edano with plenty to chew on at the beginning of his time at the new party's helm. It also remains unclear whether the opposition parties can work together to increase their chances of success in the upcoming election.
After winning the leadership election, Edano delivered a message in which he called for party unity.
"This isn't the end of the game. Now it's time to play ball," Edano said. "Working with you all, I want our new party to fight hard for the people."
At a press conference later that day, Edano announced the party would be run "with a fresher, more open feel." This was a nod to the pledge made by his sole rival in the leadership race, DPFP policy chief Kenta Izumi.
Edano's emphasis on party solidarity was tacit acknowledgement of smoldering divisions among the party's lawmakers. The CDPJ had focused on criticizing the government and questioning their policies, whereas the DPFP approach was to be an opposition party that proposed its own policies.
Edano made concessions to the DPFP as he scrambled to complete the merger in preparation for an early dissolution of the House of Representatives and a general election. Edano had been cool toward the idea of reducing the consumption tax rate, but he called for removing the 10% consumption tax for a limited time to boost consumption. During the leadership election campaign, Edano also made no mention of having zero nuclear plants operating, which is an energy policy stipulated in the CDPJ's platform.
Edano also insisted, "The role of politics is to provide government assistance when it's needed. It must not be on a par with individual self-reliance or community self-reliance." He touched on strongly liberal-tinted policies such as increasing income tax for the wealthy and imposing higher taxes on companies with massive retained earnings. This puts Edano in a starkly different position from the DPFP lawmakers who favor a reform-centered or moderate approach.
"I need to check if any of our views will be accepted," a House of Councillors lawmaker who is a midranking DPFP member said. "If nothing changes, I'll soon ditch this party."
-- Will support rise?
The CDPJ's public support rate has been hovering around 5%. In a Yomiuri Shimbun survey conducted nationwide after Prime Minister Shinzo Abe recently announced he would resign, support for the Cabinet and the ruling Liberal Democratic Party increased. However, only 36% of respondents said they had high expectations for the new opposition party; 58% said they did not expect much from the party.
Hakubun Shimomura, chairman of the LDP's Election Strategy Committee, also took a swipe at the new party. "The party's name and leader haven't changed. There's nothing for the public to feel excited about," Shimomura said.
Another senior LDP official sniffed, "It's a ramshackle coalition formed because an election is coming soon. The former Democratic Party of Japan is back."
-- Opposition cooperation uncertain
Edano believes the lower house will likely soon be dissolved and a general election held. He wants to quickly arrange which opposition party candidates will run in each constituency, but obstacles abound.
Edano's first major problem is coordinating candidates within his own party. The CDPJ and the DPFP might need to sort out which of their candidates will run in10 electorates. "We'll swiftly deal with this issue by getting them to objectively accept the situation," Edano said. A senior party official was less optimistic, saying, "That's not such a simple process."
Of the 289 single-member constituencies, almost 90 currently will not have a candidate backed by the new party.
It also remains unclear whether the new party can ensure they are locked in a one-on-one race against the ruling parties in single-seat districts. Members of the DPFP who refused to join the merger are expected to form a new party. Due to this and other factors, uncertainty continues to reign over the opposition parties.
Taro Yamamoto, head of the minor opposition party Reiwa Shinsengumi, has publicly declared his party will support about 100 candidates in single-seat constituencies if other parties cannot form a united front under the banner of cutting the consumption tax rate to 5%. During the party leadership race, Edano did go as far as stating that lowering this tax rate "was one option," but he also played this down as an issue "that won't be a key point of contention in the lower house election." When questioned about cooperating with Reiwa, Edano would only say, "The door is open."
Nippon Ishin no Kai, a small opposition party, has been building a closer relationship with Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga, who has pole position in the race to become LDP president and therefore prime minister. Ishin has been gaining attention ahead of the referendum, scheduled for November, on whether to restructure Osaka city into a metropolis. Ishin is aiming to proactively field candidates outside its electoral base of Osaka in the general election.
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