Economic shutdown during the coronavirus crisis is worse than anything seen since the second world war, leading Scottish experts warned.
The independent Fraser of Allander Institute said the impact will leave many Scots businesses struggling to survive.
Their latest snapshot warns the shock has already led to a sharp downturn which will change the shape of the economy in the long-run.
Director Graeme Roy said: “The large-scale mothballing of our economy in response to the public health emergency is unlike anything we have seen since World War Two.
“Businesses and policymakers always knew that a global pandemic represented a major risk to our highly integrated global economy. But the pace at which this crisis has escalated has caught many off-guard.”
Professor Roy said hopes for a limited hit after the end of the public health emergency are “overly optimistic”.
“The economy that will emerge from this will look quite different and not just because many businesses may struggle to survive,” he said.
“How individual sectors and businesses will adapt over the next few months – from retail through to universities – will change behaviours forever.”
Scottish tourism and hospitality jobs are disproportionately at risk in rural communities. The sectors make up around 13 per cent of the economy and 19 per cent of employment
The institute said only 42 per cent of the lowest income Scottish households are able to cover one month of regular income from savings. Three quarters of the poorest homes will not be able to withstand a six-month loss.
The crisis raises questions about how the economy will cope with climate change, future health emergencies and much greater home-working.
The most recent official figures for gross domestic product, which measures economic growth, showed a slight 0.2 per cent increase. The figures pre-dated the outbreak of coronavirus.
