As the border towns of Echuca and Moama prepare to celebrate the reopening of the New South Wales–Victoria border tomorrow, the profound long-term economic impact of a "quite crushing" 2020 has been revealed.
Internal modelling by the Murray Regional Tourism Board found it will take up to four years for the twin towns that face each other across the Murray River to get back to their pre-COVID financial position.
Chief executive Mark Francis said Echuca-Moama's unusually heavy reliance on tourism meant its economy had been "decimated" in recent months and would not snap back immediately.
"We engaged an economist to do a range of work, looking at the visitor economy, but also the broader economic perspective of Australia and globally, to have a look at the time it could take [Echuca-Moama] to actually recover and bounce back," Mr Francis said.
"At best, we might get back to about 50 per cent of pre-COVID outcomes [for] expenditure and visitation, by the end of 2021–22 and it would take until about 2024 to actually get back to a pre-COVID perspective."
Local tourism hit hard
Echuca-Moama Tourism chief executive Kathryn Mackenzie said before coronavirus restrictions and the closure of the border the tourist spot had been riding a historic peak in visitation.
In March, year-on-year growth in domestic overnight visitors was up 4.2 per cent and the number of nights spent in the region by tourists was up 15.2 per cent to 2.4 million a year.
But when NSW shut the border in July, it locked out Moama's biggest customer — Victorians — while Melbourne's lockdown hit Echuca hard too.
The effect was immediate and painful, Ms Mackenzie said, with resorts, caravan parks, motels, restaurants, cafés, golf clubs and other attractions losing "just about every booking overnight".
She said many businesses reported zero revenue, going into hibernation mode and relying on JobKeeper to pay staff.
"It has been quite crushing and now we know it will take up to four years for us to regain that end of March 2020 data," Ms Mackenzie said.
"While it's wonderful the border is opening, it's not just as simple as people coming back. It will be long a road back."
