The Victorian government’s controversial East West Link toll road could cost taxpayers $17.8bn, according to an analysis by planning and transport experts who have called for the project to be scrapped.
The government has been criticised for refusing to reveal the business plan and full costings for the 18km, cross-city road, prompting academics from Melbourne, RMIT and Monash universities to conduct their own analysis.
Their report found the project “is of doubtful economic value in terms of the benefits achieved by the project relative to the costs”.
Annual fees, operations and maintenance will amount to $13.6bn by 2045, the report said. This rises to a total of almost $18bn when combined with a $2bn capital contribution by the state government and $2.2bn in projected interest.
A one-way toll of at least $13.31 would be needed to cover payments from the government to the private operators and interest on borrowings. A toll of $5.67, more in line with existing CityLink freeway charges and inflation, would create a shortfall of $6.3bn.
The state treasurer, Michael O’Brien, criticised the report on radio station 3AW, saying it was written by a “bunch of left-wing academics with a huge anti-road agenda” and that their estimates were wrong.
“They are out by not just a few dollars, they are out billions upon billions upon billions of dollars,” O’Brien said.
But one of the authors, Prof Jago Dodson of RMIT, said O’Brien could prove the report was wrong by revealing the true cost of the project.
“Ten senior academics and thinkers came together to analyse the project using standard assessments, and we would say to the government that they can demonstrate what we found is garbage by providing us with figures for the project,” he said.
“But I suspect the figures we put forward are robust, and we did this to help inform public conversation given the opacity on this by the government.”
Dodson said the money would be better spent on public transport infrastructure, starting with the bus network. Scrapping the project would free $320m by 2021, while $77m in interest savings could fund 18m extra bus-kilometres.
“We feel that a road tunnel of the type of the East West Link is not a high priority in comparison to the need to improve public transport, which will also offer much better value for money and improve access to parts of Melbourne for areas where fewer jobs are available,” he said.
“You can roll out extensive upgrades to the bus network within a few years, but the whole public transport system needs an overhaul.”
