Japan's economy is expected to slowly but steadily rebound after restrictions imposed under the coronavirus state of emergency and less strict priority measures end on Thursday, with one estimate suggesting the boost could reach up to 600 billion yen per month.
"The pent-up demand to go shopping and buy things will emerge," economic revitalization minister Yasutoshi Nishimura said Tuesday, indicating he anticipated that easing the restrictions would have a positive impact on the economy.
Toshihiro Nagahama, a senior economist at Dai-ichi Life Research Institute, forecast that consumer spending, which had been subdued while the conditions were in place, could recover and lift the domestic economy by 600 billion yen per month.
Some tangible signs of a revival in business activity are appearing. Sanko Marketing Foods Co., which runs the Kinnokura chain of Japanese-style pubs and other restaurants, has announced about 30 of its dining establishments that had suspended operations will reopen on Friday. A Nippon Travel Agency Co. public relations official said the number of travel reservations "has been gradually increasing since mid-September." The travel agency is even considering running a special campaign for people who have been fully vaccinated.
However, given that the spread of coronavirus infections has not yet been fully brought under control, the economy is unlikely to be exactly as it was previously. Major department store operator Isetan Mitsukoshi Holdings Ltd. plans to maintain entry restriction procedures for its stores during congested periods, to be implemented as needed.
Europe, the United States and other countries are using coronavirus vaccination certificates as they attempt to get their economies up and running again while keeping new infections down. Japanese business circles and other groups have called for the introduction of a system that would enable people to carry and display digital vaccine certificates or proof of negative coronavirus tests on their smartphones.
"I think people who are fully vaccinated or have proof of a negative test should be allowed to move around and do things freely as much as possible," Japan Association of Corporate Executives Chairman Kengo Sakurada said.
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