After the approval ratings surged for the Cabinet and the ruling Liberal Democratic Party following Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's resignation annoucement, there are growing expectations within the party for an early dissolution of the House of Representatives.
"A new prime minister is likely to hold a lower house election in October and begin preparations for next year's Tokyo Olympics and Paralympics," Defense Minister Taro Kono said at an online meeting held by a U.S.-based policy research institution on Wednesday night. His remarks were apparently based on the assumption that the lower house would be dissolved on Sept. 18, the last day of an extraordinary session of the Diet to be convened on Sept. 16. Kono is highly evaluated by Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga, both of whose constituencies are in Kanagawa Prefecture. The two are also believed to be politically close. For these, his remarks prompted speculation with a junior LDP member saying, "Kono spoke for Suga."
A middle-ranking LDP lawmaker elected from a Tokyo constituency has reportedly instructed his staff to start preparing for an election under the assumption that it will be held on Oct. 25 and has begun readying an election campaign office and campaign cars.
On the other hand, another feasible timeline is as follows: An extraordinary Diet session will be convened again in mid- or late October for such purposes as hearing the new prime minister's policy speech and holding party representatives' questions at both chambers of the Diet. Then, the lower house will be dissolved and a snap election will be held in November or December.
In a Yomiuri Shimbun national opinion survey conducted in September, the approval rating for the LDP was 41 percent, up eight percentage points from an August survey conducted before Abe announced his resignation. The Cabinet approval rating also increased from 37 percent to 52 percent. More and more LDP members believe that, should an election be called, they will be able to leverage the advantage of a new government with a high popularity rating.
The LDP decided to exclude rank-and-file members from the latest party presidential election to choose Abe's successor in order to minimize the political vacuum amid the spread of the new coronavirus. Considering this, if a snap election is held just after the LDP presidential election it could lead to an increase in public criticism.
Komeito is opposed to the dissolution because the Soka Gakkai, the Buddhist group that is Komeito's primary support base, has just resumed its activities that were suspended due to the coronavirus outbreak. "Those without the right to dissolve should refrain from talking about its timing," Komeito leader Natsuo Yamaguchi said Thursday, expressing concern for the moves of some LDP members, including Kono.
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