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Chris Morris

EA's Madden has a 70% accuracy picking the Super Bowl winner. Here's who it says will win this year

Photo of quarterback Jalen Hurts (No. 1) of the Philadelphia Eagles (left) and quarterback Patrick Mahomes (No. 15) of the Kansas City Chiefs (right). (Credit: Dylan Buell—Getty Images)

Looking to put a wager on the Super Bowl, but haven’t kept up with the 2022–23 season?

A simulation of the game, run on Madden NFL 23, says the Eagles will emerge victorious, according to EA’s Madden football franchise. The company that has accurately predicted the winner of the Super Bowl for 13 of the past 19 years (including the exact score in 2015) says the Eagles will beat the Kansas City Chiefs, winning the game by a score of 31–17.

Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts is expected to have an especially good game, with 282 passing yards, three touchdowns (two passing, one rushing), and 88 rushing yards.

Here’s how the (video) game expects the (real world) game to go:

First quarter: Kansas City will be on the board first, when Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes connects with Travis Kelce. Hurts will tie it shortly thereafter with a nine-yard run.

Second quarter: Both teams score field goals, leaving the game tied at 10 as all play stops for a Rhianna concert.

Third quarter: The Eagles come out of halftime energized, scoring two touchdowns from A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith. The Chiefs score one of their own, when Isiah Pacheco breaks away for a 21-yard run.

Fourth quarter: Eagles running back Miles Sanders caps the game with a final touchdown, putting it out of reach for the Chiefs.

It’s just a video game, though, right? Why should anyone pay attention? Well, track record aside, the game leans heavily into artificial intelligence during development, which could improve its predictive performance.

The NFL has been keeping statistics about games and players since 1920, but in 2014 it outfitted RFID tags onto the shoulder pads of every player in a program called Next Gen Stats, later adding them to referee uniforms, first-down markers, and the pylons at the edge of the end zone. Using those, the league was able to capture a treasure trove of more precise data, including player speed, field location, and movement patterns. Madden NFL 22, which debuted in 2021, deeply integrated that data, allowing it to make on-screen players more realistic than ever.

Don’t discount that record, though. If you’d like a little historical perspective, here’s a look at the game’s complete track record. (Bottom line? It’s a good guide, but don’t count on it for the over/under.)

Super Bowl LVI

Madden: Bengals 24, Rams 21
Actual score: Rams 23, Bengals 20

Super Bowl LV

Madden: Chiefs 37, Buccaneers 27
Actual score: Buccaneers 31, Chiefs 9

Super Bowl LIV

Madden: Chiefs 35, 49ers 31
Actual score: Chiefs 31, 49ers 20

Super Bowl LIII

Madden: Rams 30, Patriots 27
Actual score: Patriots 13, Rams 3

Super Bowl LII

Madden: Patriots 24, Eagles 20
Actual score: Patriots 34, Eagles 28

Super Bowl LI

Madden: Patriots 27, Falcons 24
Actual score: Patriots 34, Falcons 28

Super Bowl 50

Madden: Panthers 24, Broncos 20
Actual score: Broncos 24, Panthers 10

Super Bowl XLIX

Madden: Patriots 28, Seahawks 24
Actual score: Patriots 28, Seahawks 24

Super Bowl XLVIII

Madden: Broncos 31, Seahawks 28
Actual score: Seahawks 43, Broncos 8

Super Bowl XLVII

Madden: Ravens 27, 49ers 24
Actual score: Ravens 34, 49ers 31

Super Bowl XLVI

Madden: Giants, 27, Patriots, 24
Actual score: Giants 21, Patriots 17

Super Bowl XLV

Madden: Steelers 24, Packers 20
Actual score: Packers 31, Steelers 25

Super Bowl XLIV

Madden: Saints 35, Colts 31
Actual score: Saints 31, Colts 17

Super Bowl XLIII

Madden: Steelers 28, Cardinals 24
Actual score: Steelers 27, Cardinals 23

Super Bowl XLII

Madden: Patriots 38, Giants 30
Actual score: Giants 17, Patriots 14

Super Bowl XLI

Madden: Colts 38, Bears 27
Actual score: Colts 29, Bears 17

Super Bowl XL

Madden: Steelers 24, Seahawks 19
Actual score: Steelers 21, Seahawks 10

Super Bowl XXXIX

Madden: Patriots 47, Eagles 31
Actual score: Patriots 24, Eagles 21

Super Bowl XXXVIII

Madden: Patriots 23, Panthers 20
Actual score: Patriots 32, Panthers 29

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