TIMETABLE WORKS IN ENGLAND’S FAVOUR
Ireland in a state of anxiety, England under new management, Wales considering a change of gear, France looking backwards and Scotland still smarting from the manner of their World Cup exit. It promises to be an open championship, but how much so will be revealed after the opening weekend.
England are the bookmakers’ favourites, fancied to win the grand slam, with the odds on Ireland, who are bidding to become the first team to win the Six Nations for the third time in a row, lengthening and Wales not fancied to do much in Dublin or at Twickenham. France and Scotland are tipped to have their day but not five and the wooden spoon beckons for Italy.
“I think England are the favourites to win the tournament and the draw, starting with the two away fixtures to win, Scotland and Italy, followed by home games with Ireland and Wales, works in their favour, together with their strength in depth,” said the former South Africa and Italy coach Nick Mallet, an analyst for Accenture, official technology partner of the 2016 Six Nations.
“Eddie Jones saying they are not the favourites to beat Scotland on Saturday is nonsense. He is trying to kid himself and relieve pressure. When you look at the Six Nations records of the two sides in the last four years, won with four wins and the other with four times as many, there is only one favourite. Eddie must run with that, but he is under pressure because he was not appointed to finish second. He needs the win, but it would be really disappointing if England scraped home 12-9 with four penalties.
“Eddie is a very experienced coach and England did not have many other options once they parted ways with Stuart Lancaster. Joe Schmidt and Warren Gatland were signed up and Wayne Smith was committed to New Zealand. Eddie was available and had come off a successful World Cup having remade his reputation with the Japan win against South Africa. He has been to three World Cups and two finals and that is what England are buying.
“Overall, Joe Schmidt’s honeymoon is over. Ireland have lost some big players who were key to their successful strategic plan and they are not where they were a year ago, Wales will be competitive, as ever, it will be interesting to see how France go under Guy Novès and Scotland have improved, although we will only know by how much on Saturday. I can just see England going to Paris for the title on the final weekend and who knows what state the French will be in by then.”
None of the Six Nations sides made the semi-finals of the World Cup, Scotland denied by a contentious late penalty that Australia kicked to win a seesaw game while Wales led South Africa with five minutes to go only to concede a try from a scrum.
“The last weekend of the 2015 Six Nations saw some remarkable with the positive rugby played by Wales in Italy followed by Ireland in Scotland and England at home to France,” said Mallett. “I was looking forward to those teams taking that style into the World Cup but the pressure of the occasion got to them: England went into their shells, Ireland became narrow and Wales, while getting out of a difficult pool, did not show any flair.
“What that last weekend in 2015 showed was that there is very little difference between the hemispheres in terms of ability to play. Argentina were more conservative than South Africa four years ago, but after Graham Henry went there and told them they needed to be creating opportunities by playing off turnover ball and poor kicks and using the width of the pitch, they have transformed themselves remarkably, as Ireland found out in the World Cup.
“Players and coaches here should not get wrapped up in results: as a coach I understand only too well that happens given all the pressures, but it was interesting to hear Warren Gatland say at the Six Nations launch that if we lose a fantastic game of rugby so be it and we will be a better team going forward to the next World Cup.
“I expect England under Eddie to be more aware of opportunities from turnovers and kicks. Japan under him were about getting the ball away from set pieces as quickly as possible and counterattacking was a critical part of his strategy, not being conservative with ball that was better than possession from a scrum or a lineout. The All Blacks have been doing this for a long time, Australia as well, and in the final minute of the World Cup final, New Zealand ran a turnover from their own 22 and scored a try when other sides would have looked to keep the ball until it was full-time.
“I remember a South African coach saying to a New Zealand coach that he could not understand why the All Blacks spent so little time on lineouts compared to the hours the Springboks put in and the reply was that they did not have to worry about losing the ball to South Africa because they just kicked it back to them and we concentrate on the counterattack.
“With so many Six Nations teams now under southern hemisphere coaches, turnover opportunities no matter where they occur will result in players having a look before they take a conservative option. I think it will do wonders for English rugby. New Zealand see every turnover as an opportunity to attack and it is wonderful to see some Premiership clubs having the same attitude. It is encouraging and referees are understanding that you need to give space to teams trying to do this and penalise players who lurk offside following a kick.”
If Mallett believes Jones is a positive for England, he is less sure about the decision to give the captaincy to Dylan Hartley. “Eddie could not come in and not make changes after the World Cup,” said Mallett. “Who else could have been captain? Eddie wants to show that England will have an abrasive side and it is a good and a bad appointment. You do want an abrasive captain but you do not want him to be abrasive to referees.
“Hartley does not have the respect from referees that the likes of Richie McCaw, John Smit and John Eales, World Cup winning captains, developed. They had the ability to win the referee over. Hartley has a terrible reputation with referees and has been red-carded as captain. He will need to be a very different type of leopard. Maybe that will happen and he has said he wants it to, but he has yet to show the ability to play on the edge while being calm and reasoned in discussions with the referee at the same time. The jury is out on that one.”
• This is an extract taken from the Breakdown, the Guardian’s weekly rugby union email. To subscribe, just visit this page, find ‘The Breakdown’ and follow the instructions.
