If you’re a football fan and you haven’t heard of Football Outsiders’ DVOA metric then you might not be as obsessed with football as you think you are. DVOA is defined as “team efficiency ratings measured by a proprietary Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) system that breaks down every single NFL play and compares a team’s performance to a league baseline based on situation in order to determine value over average.” The too long; didn’t read version is that it measures efficiency and efficient teams should win a lot of games.
It’s early in the season, but some teams’ DVOAs don’t exactly match their record or reputation. It’s those teams we will focus on here.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
DVOA 7 Record 2-2
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are a .500 team. They’ve really only looked good against the Panthers and Rams. They lost to the Giants at home. Their offensive line has been up and down. Their running back situation is weird because Ronald Jones looks like the better back. Jameis Winston is turnover prone. The Bucs are a top-10 team according to DVOA.
Tampa has a chance to go for the top spot in the NFC South if they can beat the Saints this week — we’ll get to New Orleans later — and if DVOA is any indication of how good the Bucs are, they’ll be going to London with a 3-2 record.
Buffalo Bills
DVOA 20 Record 3-1
The Buffalo Bills could have been 4-0 if they had any offense against the Patriots. Their defense is one of the top units in the league. They have a good chance of making the playoffs this year.
Somehow they are at 20. DVOA adjusts for opponents and the Bills three victories are against the Jets, Giants, and Bengals. Their offense hasn’t been great all year. The thing is they aren’t in the bottom third of the league. They have the talent and they are well-coached. Expect the Bills DVOA to adjust once they win games against teams that are actually good.
New Orleans Saints
DVOA 21 Record 3-1
When people talk about one of the best teams in the NFC they usually include the Saints in that conversation. That would be incorrect according to DVOA.
They haven’t won a game by more than a touchdown. They were blown out by the Rams. They barely beat the Texans — a team that has a middle of the pack DVOA — and their offense hasn’t been great since Drew Brees went down with an injury. Mike Thomas hasn’t been making the same impact. New Orleans relies on its defense and Alvin Kamara. They aren’t the 21st best team in the league, but DVOA says they are.
