The Albanese government is heaping pressure on the Dutton opposition to support its income tax changes, releasing its own analysis showing up to 89% of taxpayers in some regional and suburban Coalition electorates will be better off.
About 85% of taxpayers in Liberal and National electorates will be better off under Labor’s plan than stage three, or 3.4 million people out of a total of 4 million, according to analysis released by the office of the treasurer, Jim Chalmers.
In opposition leader Peter Dutton’s seat of Dickson, the analysis found 85% of taxpayers would be better off under Labor’s plan than the stage-three tax cuts legislated by the Coalition.
The prime minister, Anthony Albanese, has accused the Coalition of being “all over the shop” on the tax plan because the opposition is yet to say if it will support changes designed to help low- and middle-income earners.
The top five Coalition electorates to benefit, with 89% of taxpayers better off, are: Liberal-held Forde and Longman in Brisbane; Nationals-held Page and Cowper in northern New South Wales; and Braddon in Tasmania.
Some 88% of taxpayers are better off in the next five Coalition seats to benefit: Wright and Hinkler in Queensland; La Trobe in Victoria; and Lindsay and Lyne in NSW.
The statistics echo findings of an analysis by the Australian National University associate professor Ben Phillips, that working-class communities in Coalition-held remote and regional electorates stand to gain the most.
The Coalition has been subtly repositioning on the tax changes, backtracking from outright opposition to suggesting that the opposition could keep low- and middle-income tax cuts and propose at the next election to fully implement stage three by abolishing the 37% tax bracket.
On Tuesday Dutton continued to prevaricate on the tax cuts, saying shadow cabinet had not reached a final position. He criticised Labor plans to give back $28bn less over 10 years than the Coalition’s legislated package.
The deputy Liberal leader, Sussan Ley, told the ABC the Coalition’s “starting point” was that “no Australian should get less than they were promised under stage three”.
The Nationals leader, David Littleproud, told Sky News that the “guiding principle” of both Coalition parties was “that we want to give as much of your tax dollar back to you as we possibly can”.
The comments suggest the Coalition will seek to amend Labor’s bill to restore cuts for high-income earners, but could opt to not to oppose cuts for those lower down the scale.
While Labor pressures the Coalition, the Greens are warning that the plan to increase tax relief for those earning less than $146,486 still excludes those on the lowest incomes, including those receiving government payments or earning below the $18,200 tax-free threshold.
The Greens have released a Parliamentary Budget Office analysis showing that in the first year just $1.8bn out of the total $23.3bn cost will go to the poorest 40% of households.
The top 20% of households will still pocket $11.7bn that year, despite Labor’s plan halving the tax cut for those earning more than $190,000 from $9,000 to $4,500.
Over a decade, people earning more than $180,000 will still receive $84bn of tax cuts, more than a quarter of the cost of the package.
Albanese has said the package “overwhelmingly benefits” and is “aimed at middle Australia”.
“People on average incomes, which in this country is $73,000 for an individual and $130,000 for a couple, are going to get double, or more than double, the tax cuts that they were going to get,” he said on Monday.
But the Greens leader, Adam Bandt, said the “Liberal-lite tax cuts still benefit the wealthy and leave everyday people behind”.
“The numbers don’t lie … Under Labor, the top 20% get 50% of the benefit, but the bottom 20% only get 0.4%.”
The Greens senator Nick McKim said: “The [prime minister] claimed ‘no one left behind’ at the [National Press Club] but it is clear as day that the people left behind here are on jobseeker, youth allowance, part-time workers and renters.”
And according to a new Australia Institute poll, half of high-income earners think stage-three tax cuts should be revamped to benefit those lower down the income scale.
The poll of 1,004 voters, conducted from Tuesday to Monday, found that 58% are in favour of restructuring the stage-three tax cuts so middle- and low-income earners receive more.
The poll was in the field during the period that the new Labor plan leaked out of the cabinet and caucus and after it was announced by the prime minister at the National Press Club on Thursday.
Just 16% of voters wanted to keep the stage-three tax cuts in their current form. A further 17% want to scrap the stage-three cuts entirely.
Those earning more than $200,000 were more likely to support revamping the tax cuts (49%) than want to keep them unchanged (32%).
A majority (55%) of Coalition voters supported restructuring stage three, with just one quarter (25%) saying to keep them as legislated by the Morrison government in mid-2019.
Almost two-thirds of voters (65%) said it was more important to adapt economic policy “to suit the changing circumstances even if that means breaking an election promise” compared with one quarter (24%) who favoured “keeping an election promise regardless”.
