At a Chinese restaurant in Melbourne's eastern suburbs, Peter Dutton sensed a succulent swing coming the coalition's way.
Discontent with Victoria's unpopular state government could manifest democratic success for the opposition leader at the federal election, but Mr Dutton's own brand could be more of a hindrance than a help.
In the city's outer suburbs lie a cordon of seats the coalition believes it can pry from Labor at Saturday's election, boosted by a backlash against Premier Jacinta Allan.
Mortgage-belt electorates such as Chisholm and Dunkley in the east and McEwen and Hawke in the outer west have particularly felt the cost-of-living strain.
With those and similar seats in mind, Mr Dutton has been keen to emphasise rising mortgage costs under Labor.
"Interest rates have risen on 12 occasions under this government, they've only come back once," he told reporters at a women's crisis support charity in Seaford on Wednesday.
Mr Dutton was alongside Nathan Conroy, the Irish-born former mayor of Frankston City Council who is challenging Labor's Jodie Belyea in Dunkley.
It's a seat the opposition leader acknowledges he must win to form government.
"We need to win Dunkley, absolutely," he said.
The coalition sits on a notional 57 seats, following candidate defections and redistributions, meaning they need to win at least 18 electorates and hold onto the furniture to have a chance of forming a majority government.
"We have a number of other seats, obviously, that we're targeting in Victoria, and we'll continue to work day and night between now and the election," Mr Dutton said.
Opinion polling shows the Victorian Labor government would lose the state election in a landslide if it were held today.
The premier has been struggling to turn around perceptions the ageing government is driving the budget into the ground and failing to prevent youth crime.
Just down the road in Chisholm, Mr Dutton met with members of the Chinese community at a yum-cha restaurant in Glen Waverley.
The Liberal candidate, Katie Allen, is trying to re-enter federal parliament after losing the abolished, neighbouring seat of Higgins in 2022.
While the coalition hopes its cost-of-living policies will win over voters in outer-suburban electorates, Mr Dutton has done little to win back constituents in formerly blue-ribbon Liberal seats in inner-cities areas.
He is yet to set foot this campaign in Kooyong, for example, which teal independent Monique Ryan won in 2022.
Asked if he planned to visit the electorate, Mr Dutton deflected.
"(Liberal candidate) Amelia Hamer is doing a fantastic job in Kooyong and we'll get through as many seats in Victoria as we can," he said.
The last Liberal to hold Kooyong, Josh Frydenberg, was once seen as a future party leader but left politics following the past election defeat.
Now at investment bank Goldman Sachs, Mr Frydenberg recently told a Perth event he was enjoying life with his young family but might one day throw his hat back in the political ring.
"I hope Josh does come back one day, and I've encouraged him to do so," Mr Dutton said.
