The Dutton camp has launched a late-night push against Malcolm Turnbull, circulating a petition among MPs designed to trigger a second, and they hope decisive, leadership spill on Thursday.
Ahead of the second strike, Tony Abbott took to the airwaves to claim he had not done a deal with Peter Dutton to return to the cabinet in the event the challenger unseated Turnbull this week – a public message for wavering MPs who fear the rise of Dutton means the return of the politically unpopular former prime minister to centre stage.
The escalation by conservatives on Wednesday evening follows a choppy day for the former home affairs minister. Dutton’s ad hoc suggestion during a radio interview that the GST should come off energy bills to reduce power prices was blasted by the treasurer, Scott Morrison, and disavowed by some of Dutton’s supporters.
Dutton also faces fresh questions about his eligibility to sit in parliament because of claims his business interests in childcare centres may breach the constitution. The solicitor general has been asked to provide advice on whether or not there is a problem.
New legal advice obtained by the ALP from Bret Walker QC says it is “clearly arguable” that Dutton is not eligible to sit in parliament, and “potentially not eligible to have been chosen for the 45th parliament”.
As well as constitutional questions, there is also uncertainty about whether Dutton can command a majority on the floor of the House if the prime minister is rolled, with crossbenchers declining to offer comfort, and the National Darren Chester signalling he could decamp to the crossbench.
The Dutton camp plotted the evening strike through Wednesday. The chatter among government MPs through the day was there would be a second attempt by the ministers backing Dutton to resign their posts late in the day in order to trigger a fresh implosion.
With speculation sweeping the building, Labor forced the ministers who voted for Dutton in Tuesday’s leadership ballot to make public pledges of loyalty to Turnbull in question time by asking them to articulate their positions.
One minister backing Dutton, the Queensland Liberal James McGrath – a former member of Turnbull’s inner circle – did resign his frontbench post on Tuesday night, and the prime minister accepted the resignation.
While the leadership turmoil has plunged the Turnbull government into crisis, senior figures, thus far, have rallied for Turnbull. Moderates worked again through Wednesday to shore up Turnbull’s numbers.
The critical senior figures, Mathias Cormann and Scott Morrison, made public pledges of loyalty to the prime minister. Cormann denied reports on Wednesday night that he had resigned his finance ministry and joined up with the Dutton forces.
The social services minister, Dan Tehan, refused to switch camps. “I will not vote against a sitting prime minister,” he told Guardian Australia.
The health minister, Greg Hunt, stopped by reporters at a function at Parliament House, said he had not seen the petition circulating among MPs and he had not signed it.
“To this moment, I’m not aware of it,” he said. “I set out my position in question time today and my position has not changed – the prime minister has my support.”
The challengers want to push Turnbull to the brink this week, and supporters of the prime minister are determined to hold out the push on the basis MPs will leave Canberra on Thursday night for a two-week break in their electorates, providing a circuit breaker and the opportunity of feedback from their constituents.
The Dutton camp had hoped to trigger a party room meeting on Wednesday night to force a second spill but Turnbull dug in, and parliament adjourned, deferring the resolution until Thursday.
Moderates insisted on Wednesday night that they were confident the challengers did not have the numbers to topple Turnbull this week, provided MPs were being truthful in their private undertakings.
MPs are claiming the process of canvassing behind the scenes is bruising, with some women complaining of intimidation by conservative powerbrokers.
Some have told Guardian Australia that organisational figures are actively involved, not only from Queensland but also from Victoria, and threats are being made about preselections.
The Dutton camp is also furious about the solicitor general examining the constitutional questions that have been raised about the challenger over the past 24 hours.
Abbott articulated that displeasure publicly on 2GB. “Given that this question of section 44 eligibility of Peter Dutton was raised in the Senate, 12 months or so back, and given there is QC’s advice that he is absolutely in the clear, I just thought it was very strange that today the prime minister didn’t simply say that this matter has been considered – there’s QC advice that Peter Dutton’s advice is that he is absolutely in the clear.”
