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The Guardian - UK
The Guardian - UK
World
Matthew Weaver (now) and Claire Phipps, Alexandra Topping and Hanna Yusuf (earlier)

Dutch elections: Rutte starts coalition talks after beating Wilders into second – as it happened

Mark Rutte says Dutch people have rejected ‘wrong sort of populism’

Summary

With almost all the results in and coalition talks likely to take months we’re going to bring this blog to a close. Here’s a summary:

The results

default
  • The Dutch prime minister, Mark Rutte, has seen off a challenge from the anti-Islam anti-EU populist Geert Wilders to claim victory in parliamentary elections. Rutte said his victory halted resurgent nationalism, claiming “The Netherlands said ‘Stop’ to the wrong sort of populism.”
  • Coalition talks on forming a new government have begun in the Hague but could take months to finalise. Rutte’s party looks likely to take 33 seats (a loss of eight MPs) and will need the support of at least three other parties to secure the 76 seats needed to govern. The Christian Democrats (centre to centre-right) and Democrats 66 (economic: centre-right, social: centre-left), each with an expected 19 MPs, are two of the obvious candidates.
  • Wilders, despite a projected second-place finish overall with around 20 seats, is not likely to be part of those negotiations, with all major parties unwilling to work with his populist, anti-Islam MPs. Wilders said he was proud that his PVV had gained seats to come second in the poll only 12 years after it was founded.
  • The Labour party or PvdA, slumped from 38 seats to a projected nine. Labour leader Lodewijk Asscher admitted the result was “unbelievably disappointing” and that voters had put their trust in another party – an apparent reference to GreenLeft.
  • The unexpected victor of the night was GreenLeft, led by 30-year-old Jesse Klaver, which boosted its four seats to a projected 14. It could now play kingmaker in coalition talks.
  • The official tally of results will be published on 21 March.

The reaction

The political establishment in Europe welcomed the Dutch result as victory for tolerance and a boost for the European Union after its battering from last year’s Brexit vote.

  • European Commission president Jean-Claude Juncker said it was victory “free and tolerant societies in a prosperous Europe.”
  • German Chancellor Angela Merkel described it a “very pro-European result” and a “good day for democracy”.
  • In France, where the anti EU far right Marine Le Pen is leading in the presidential election polls, there was also relief from the political establishment. French president, François Hollande, said it was a “clear victory against extremism”. But Nicolas Bay, secretary general of Le Pen’s Front National said he was encouraged by the gains for Wilders.
  • Guy Verhofstadt, leader of the Alliance of Liberals and Democrats for Europe in the European Parliament, said: “People want constructive and reliable politicians to govern their country. This is why Le Pen will also fail.”
  • Spain’s Conservative prime minister Mariano Rajoy congratulated the Dutch people for their “responsibility”.
  • Britain’s FTSE 100 hit a new record high at the start of trading and European shares hit their highest level in 15 months.
  • Turkey said there is “no difference” between the ruling Dutch liberals and the “fascist” anti-immigration politician Geert Wilders. Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu, who was barred by Netherlands from speaking at rally in support of giving Turkish President Erdoğan, extra powers, said: “You look at the social democrats and the fascist Wilders, there is no difference, they have the same mentality.”

Hanna Yusuf has been monitoring how Dutch TV has been crunching the numbers.

This FT graphic neatly sums up the result and the collapse in the Labour party vote.

The Guardian’s communities team is looking for readers reaction to the Dutch poll.

Coalition talks begin

Party leaders have come together in The Hague for the beginning of coalition talks, writes Hanna Yusuf.

Speaking on his way to the talks D66 leader Alexander Pechtold said that he is incredibly proud of the election results, and that he is keeping an open mind when it comes to forming a government.

The CDA are having cake because they claim they have something to celebrate. The party leader, Buma, said: “this is the best campaign we have ever had”, according to the Dutch news site NOS.

The Labour party had a less festive mood. Asscher said that he will keep going, and try to rebuild.

Merkel: ‘very pro-European result’

Angela Merkel
Angela Merkel Photograph: Fabrizio Bensch/Reuters

German Chancellor Angela Merkel has welcomed what she describes as a “very pro-European result” and a “good day for democracy”

Speaking at a conference on demography, she said: “The Netherlands are our partners, friends, neighbours. Therefore I was very happy that a high turnout led to a very pro-European result, a clear signal.

“And that after days in which the Netherlands had to tolerate accusations and reproaches from Turkey which are totally unacceptable... It was a good day for democracy.”

Juncker hails victory for 'tolerant societies'

European Commission president Jean-Claude Juncker has hailed the Dutch election result as a vote for “free and tolerant societies in a prosperous Europe.”

In a letter to Rutte he said the result would be as an “inspiration for many” a veiled reference perhaps to forthcoming elections in France and Germany.

He didn’t mention anti-EU and anti-immigrant Geert Wilders but Junckers is clearly relieved that he was beaten into second.

Writing in Dutch Junckers added: “Let us put our heads together for a stronger Europe.”

Here’s a graphic of latest results.

default

Denis MacShane Britain’s former Minister of Europe under Labour, has hailed the result as the end of populism in Europe.

Writing in the Independent he says:

The Dutch result and the probable new President of France signals an end to Brexit-Trump nationalist populism with its nasty anti-immigrant scapegoating. Such politics will not disappear and it will infect mainstream parties, much as Ukip has now transplanted itself into the Conservative Party and even the cabinet.

But democracies are not yet ready to surrender to their extremes.

He also says the result should be a warning to Britain’s Labour party.

The Dutch centre-left party shares the same name as Labour but it slumped from 33 to 9 seats. Its leader, Lodowijk Aascher, tried to turn his fire on European workers in the Netherlands much as many Labour MPs have produced plans to limit Europeans working in the UK with proposals for Cold War era work permits, regional quotas, passports for London, and other schemes for external control that are archaic, bureaucratic and unenforceable short of a complete shutdown of entry into Britain.

Far better would be stronger internal controls of the UK labour market to promote local employment, training, and protection of workers. But so traumatised is post-Brexit Labour that the party has lost clarity of thought. Labour MPs quoted approvingly the PvdA’s Aascher as he sought to scapegoat European workers in the Netherlands, but Dutch voters are not buying left nationalist populism.

Guy Verhofstadt, leader of the Alliance of Liberals and Democrats for Europe in the European Parliament, has welcomed the Dutch result and claims it shows why Marine Le Pen will not be elected president in France.

“People want constructive and reliable politicians to govern their country. This is why Le Pen will also fail,” he tweeted.

With 95% of votes counted here’s Jon Henley’s latest roundup of the results.

The German broadcaster Deutsche Welle has a useful video roundup of the reaction from seven leaders of the main party in the Netherlands (with subtitles). All but one claim the result as some kind of victory. The exception is Labour Party leader Lodewijk Asscher who admitted the result was “unbelievably disappointing” and that voters had put their trust in another party – an apparent reference to GreenLeft. The Labour Party or PvdA fell from 35 seats to just nine.

Updated

Britain’s Green Party is buoyed by the performance of the GreenLeft which came from nowhere to a projected 14 seats.

Joint Green Party leader Jonathan Bartley sees this as a good omen.

But Rafael Behr warns us to beware of Brits drawing too many conclusions from the Dutch results.

Turkey: 'no difference' between Rutte and Wilders

Mevlut Cavusoglu
Mevlut Cavusoglu Photograph: Vincent Kessler/Reuters

Turkey said there is “no difference” between the ruling Dutch liberals and the “fascist” anti-immigration politician Geert Wilders, after Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte defeated the far-right in elections, AFP reports.

“You look at the social democrats and the fascist Wilders, there is no difference, they have the same mentality,” Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu said acording to state-run news agency Anadolu.

The comments follow Turkey’s suspension of diplomatic relations with the Netherlands on Monday and Turkish president, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan twice describing the Dutch government as Nazis on Saturday after Cavusoglu and Turkey’s family affairs minister were prevented from attending rallies.

Earlier this week Rutte accused Erdoğan, of escalating the row after holding the Netherlands responsible for Srebrenica massacre.

Updated

Party leaders are expected to meet this afternoon to discuss the first steps of coalition horse trading.

Ruling coalitions need at least 76 seats between them. Rutte’s VVD is well short of that with 33 seats, so will need the support of at least three other parties. The Christian Democrats and centrist D66 parties are likely future coalition partners with 19 seats each. But which other party could join? Rutte has ruled out working with Wilders’ PVD which came second with 20 seats.

Coalition talks are likely to take months and may not succeed.

Britain’s FTSE 100 has hit a new record high at the start of trading and European shares hit their highest level in 15 months on the back of the Dutch election results.

The result may not be a surprise in Holland, but there has been lots of soul searching from the international media after its over-emphasis on the far right leader Geert Wilders and its underplaying of the collapse of the establishment left party the PvdA.

Marine Le Pen and Nicolas Bay of the Front National
Marine Le Pen and Nicolas Bay of the Front National Photograph: David Vincent/AP

The secretary general of France’s far-right Front National said he was encouraged by the gains for Geert Wilders.


“It’s a real success,” secretary general Nicolas Bay told France Inter radio, referring to how Wilders’ party had won more seats, despite losing the overall result to Dutch centre-right prime minister Mark Rutte.

There is widespread relief among British MPs at the result. Senior figures from all the main parties have welcomed the failure of Geert Wilders to top the poll.

European government bonds are strengthening this morning, following Geert Wilder’s failure to claim first place in the Dutch election.

French debt is in demand, as investors take it as a sign that Marine Le Pen might be thwarted in her bid to win the presidency.

Business Live has more on the market reaction:

Spain’s Conservative prime minister Mariano Rajoy has joined the queue of European leaders congratulating Rutte and the Dutch people for their “responsibility”.

He also praised the centre right CDA which looks set to come joint third with 19 seats.

The prime minister of Denmark, Lars Løkke Rasmussen has congratulated Rutte and hailed the Dutch election result as a victory for serious politics.

He is the latest European leader to welcome the result.

Earlier French president, François Hollande, said it was a “clear victory against extremism”.

Updated

Prime minister Mark Rutte has praised the Dutch for not allowing the Netherlands to fall to the “wrong side of populism”.

Speaking to Bloomberg after a victory party he said:

After Brexit, after the US elections, the [Dutch] people have said no to another country where the domino stone of the wrong side of populism would topple over.

Wilders 'proud' of his voters

Geert Wilders is putting a brave face on coming second. He tweeted that he is proud of the more than one million people who voted for his Party of Freedom (PVV).

Here’s a rough translation via Bing:

Very proud of all our voters, more than 1 million Dutch citizens! Thanks! 12 years after establishment, PVV the second party of all! Great!!

This is Matthew Weaver taking over from Claire Phipps.

Updated

Summary

The results

  • VVD, the centre-right party led by incumbent prime minister Mark Rutte, has emerged as the biggest party, knocking back the predicted surge of Geert Wilders’ far-right PVV.
  • Rutte’s party looks likely to take 33 seats (a loss of eight MPs) and will – as expected and is typical for the 150-seat Dutch parliament – need to enter into coalition talks to form a new government.
  • Wilders, despite a projected second-place finish overall with around 20 seats, is not likely to be part of those negotiations, with all major parties unwilling to work with his populist, anti-Islam MPs.
  • The collapse of Rutte’s former coalition partners, the social democratic PvdA, slumping from 38 seats to a projected nine, means the PM will need to seek new agreements. The Christian Democrats (centre to centre-right) and Democrats 66 (economic: centre-right, social: centre-left), each with an expected 19 MPs, are the obvious candidates.
  • But the unexpected victor of the night was GreenLeft, led by 30-year-old Jesse Klaver, which boosted its four seats to a projected 14. It could now play kingmaker in coalition talks.
  • Talks are likely to last for some time – possibly weeks or months. The official tally of results will be published on 21 March.

The reaction

  • Rutte hailed the win, saying it was the moment in which

The Netherlands said ‘Stop’ to the wrong sort of populism.

  • Wilders called Rutte’s remarks

very worrying, as if populists are semi-Nazis … If all the losers like the VVD form a government, we need to have a strong opposition of winners like the PVV.

  • The result was welcomed in Europe with German chancellor Angela Merkel telling Rutte:

I look forward to working with you as friends, neighbours and Europeans.

  • French president François Hollande congratulated Rutte:

The values of openness, respect for others, and a faith in Europe’s future are the only true response to the nationalist impulses and isolationism that are shaking the world.

  • And this was GreenLeft’s response to its electoral surge:

Updated

The collapse of the Dutch Labour party PvdA – on course to fall from 38 seats to just nine – means its role as coalition partner to VVD is under threat.

Leader Lodewijk Asscher‏ has reportedly said he sees no role for his shrunken party in new coalition talks, which are likely instead to involve the Christian Democrats and Democrats 66, with a possible role for GreenLeft too.

Asscher called the result “a blow”:

(My rudimentary translation: “To all who supported us, thank you for your trust. The outcome is a blow, but the future of social democracy is worth fighting for.”)

Here are those latest figures; about 95% of the vote has been counted now, but the final official numbers are not published until 21 March. Nonetheless this is a pretty good guide to the way the new parliament will look:

Dutch front pages

NRC: Rutte can do it – but with whom?

Algemeen Dagblad: Rutte again

BN DeStem: Rutte keeps smiling

De Volkskrant: Rutte keeps populists down

An editorial in respected Dutch daily NRC says the Netherlands has woken up to a “normal” morning:

The Dutch have woken up in a “normal” country, as prime minister Mark Rutte puts it: there was no populist revolt.

Rutte’s VVD lost a quarter of its support but thanks to its substantial lead over the other parties finds itself in an exceptionally comfortable position as leader.

The PvdA, however, one of the pillars of the postwar welfare state, is in existential crisis. Never in parliamentary history has a party lost so many seats.

What is clear is that governing does not pay. The outgoing government presented a dream budget this year: what should have gone up went up, what should have come down came down. The Netherlands is currently one of the best performing countries in the EU. And still voters punished the outgoing coalition severely.

For the voter, apparently, politics is about more than the economy.

The Dutch news agency ANP has said its final results forecast, usually published sometime on election night, is unlikely to be available until later on Thursday or even on Friday.

That’s because several large municipalities including Amsterdam, The Hague and Utrecht don’t expect to finish counting until then.

But the ANP’s election chief, Mark Westerhoff, said he expected no further significant changes to the picture. With 93.3% of votes counted, that was:

  • VVD 33 seats
  • PVV 20
  • CDA and D66 19 each
  • GroenLinks, SP 14
  • PvdA 9
  • ChristenUnie and Partij voor de Dieren 5 each
  • 50PLUS 4
  • SGP and DENK 3
  • Forum for Democracy 2

Some happy campaigners in The Hague:

Members of Avaaz celebrate the defeat of Geert Wilders’ Freedom party.
Members of Avaaz celebrate the defeat of Geert Wilders’ Freedom party. Photograph: Niels Wenstedt/EPA

Writing for RTL Z, Roderick Veelo cautions against assumptions that the populist far-right is over:

Responsibility – the willingness to steer the country through difficult times – seems to be the Achilles heel of the PVV [Geert Wilders’ Freedom party] … Wilders’ lack of responsibility broke into the campaign on the final weekend with the diplomatic row with Turkey. With perhaps the most energetic move of his career, Rutte put Wilders in checkmate.

Rutte showed courage and leadership in a very difficult matter of national importance, and for potential PVV voters became a better choice than Wilders … Rutte is still standing, but so too is the social discontent about uncontrolled immigration, failed integration and the power of Brussels.

This dissatisfaction is not going away. The broad coalition that will govern this country soon must show responsibility and courage on these subjects and go to work with real solutions. Only when that happens will the populist revolt die a quiet death.

Updated

The Dutch election result has had a buoying effect on the euro, Reuters reports:

The euro stood tall on Thursday after Dutch election exit polls pointed to a comfortable win by the prime minister over his far-right rival.

The euro climbed to a five-week high of $1.0746 on Thursday, after surging 1.2 percent overnight.

The common currency was boosted as exit polls showed the Netherlands’ centre-right prime minister Mark Rutte roundly saw off a challenge by anti-Islam, anti-EU Geert Wilders in an election on Wednesday, alleviating concerns towards Holland opting to leave the EU.

“The euro’s rise was an initial reaction to the Dutch exit polls and the currency could rise further when the European ‘mother market’ comes into session later in the day,” said Masafumi Yamamoto, chief currency strategist at Mizuho Securities in Tokyo.

“How much further support the euro can garner would depend on how the Dutch vote could now impact the French presidential elections, for example by eroding support for [Marine] Le Pen. We could see the euro gain further if spreads between French and German government bonds tighten today.”

Voting continues swiftly – we’re now into single-digit percentages still to tot up.

It’s a three-way race for second place, but VVD is unassailable in first.

The big winner – and now the largest party of the Dutch left for the first time – was GreenLeft, headed by 30-year-old Jesse Klaver, hailed by his enthusiastic supporters as the “Jessiah”.

The party – formed 25 years ago by a merger of communists, pacifists, evangelicals and self-styled radicals – looks set to quadruple its MPs from four to 16 after a storming campaign by Klaver.

“This is a fantastic result for us, a historic victory,” said the party chairwoman, Marjolein Meijer.

The result showed there was “very fertile ground in the Netherlands for change and a positive and hopeful story”, she said. “For us this is just the beginning.”

The Netherlands’ youngest ever party leader, Klaver built a strong following on social media through small Meetup events after taking over GreenLeft’s leadership in May 2015. His rallies were among the campaign’s largest, including an Amsterdam meeting that drew more than 5,000 people – plus 5,000 more following live on Facebook.

His TV debates were also widely regarded as triumphs. In one debate watched by 1.6 million viewers, Klaver told his far-right, anti-Islam rival Geert Wilders that it was rightwing populism, not Muslim immigration, that was undermining Dutch culture and traditions.

“The values the Netherlands stands for – for many, many decades, centuries actually – its freedom, its tolerance, its empathy … [the populists] are destroying it,” he said during one campaign interview.

“It’s terrible when people are born in the Netherlands have the feeling they are not part of this society and it is not something to be proud of, but something to be ashamed of. And I want to change that.”

Dutch prime minister Mark Rutte says the election result, in which his VVD party comfortably beat the anti-Islam Freedom party of Geert Wilders, shows the people have said no to “the wrong side of populism”.

Mark Rutte says Dutch people have rejected ‘wrong sort of populism’

Who could form a coalition?

As the leader of the party with the greatest vote share, Mark Rutte will be given the first chance to form a government. He’s likely to need three other parties to join with his VVD party to get the 76-seat majority needed in the 150-seat parliament.

Predictions based on votes counted so far and exit polls put VVD on an estimated 31 seats. With the Christian Democrats and Democrats 66 looking set for 19 seats each, they are obvious first ports of call for Rutte. But that could add up to just 69 seats, still short of a majority.

Geert Wilders, whose Freedom party (PVV) is also on course for 19 MPs, is not expected to be drawn into negotiations, despite announcing his willingness overnight. All major parties have said they would not work with the far-right party.

Rutte’s coalition partner till now, the social democratic Labour party (PvdA), has had a disastrous election, predicted to slump from 38 seats to just nine.

Into the gap could come GreenLeft and its young leader Jesse Klaver. With a projected 16 seats, the party could become kingmaker in the new parliament.

But don’t expect a speedy settling: talks on forming a coalition could take months.

Results with 75% of vote counted

It’s notable that the social democratic Labour party (PvdA), Rutte’s outgoing coalition partner, has nosedived off the bottom of the listing. It’s currently forecast to slump to a historic low of nine seats from 38 in the current parliament.

The Dutch prime minister, Mark Rutte, and his liberal VVD party appear to have comfortably beaten the anti-Islam Freedom party of Geert Wilders to become the largest in the new parliament.

“Our message to the Netherlands – that we will hold our course, and keep this country safe, stable and prosperous, got through,” Rutte told a cheering crowd of supporters at the VVD’s election night party.

The eyes of Europe had been on the vote, he added. “Many European colleagues have called me this evening: this was an evening when after Brexit and Trump, the Netherlands said ‘Stop’ to the wrong sort of populism.”

Wilders tweeted that since the VVD had lost seats and the PVV had gained, his party was “among the winners”, adding: “If all the losers like the VVD form a government, we need to have a strong opposition of winners like the PVV.”

The leftwing environmentalists of GreenLeft looked the big winners of the night, as the party was forecast to quadruple its number of MPs to 16. But the social democratic Labour party (PvdA), Rutte’s outgoing coalition partner, was forecast to slump to a historic low of nine seats from 38 in the current parliament.

The projected result would leave Rutte with a choice of coalition options, although coalition-building – with four parties likely to be needed – could take months: the average in the Netherlands is three months and the record more than 200 days.

Juncker: 'A vote against extremists'

Margaritis Schinas, spokesperson for the EU commission president Jean-Claude Juncker, says Juncker has spoken to the Netherlands’ incumbent PM, Mark Rutte, congratulating him on his “clear victory”:

A vote for Europe, a vote against extremists.

Updated

With 50% of votes counted, here’s how it stands, with VVD still holding a convincing lead:

French president François Hollande is congratulating Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte for his election success and his “clear victory against extremism”, Associated Press reports:

After Rutte’s party soundly beat the party of anti-immigrant populist Geert Wilders, Hollande said in a statement early Thursday:

The values of openness, respect for others, and a faith in Europe’s future are the only true response to the nationalist impulses and isolationism that are shaking the world.”

France is facing a presidential election starting next month in which far-right leader Marine Le Pen, who wants to leave the European Union and sharply curb immigration, is expected to make a strong showing.

Both Rutte and Wilders had painted Wednesday’s Dutch election as a battle between established politics and populist ideas.

French foreign minister Jean-Marc Ayrault said the result was good for a “stronger Europe”:

Geert Wilders has left the building:

Wilders: 'We're among the winners'

Geert Wilders – whose far-right PVV has not performed as well as he, or polls, expected – has said he would be willing to enter coalition talks. (All main parties have said they will not go into coalition with PVV, and it currently doesn’t look as if the first-placed VVD will need Wilders.)

With 28% of votes counted, here’s how the projection of seats won stands:

  • VVD 32 seats
  • Christian Democrats 20
  • PVV (Wilders’ Freedom party) 19
  • Democrats 66 18
  • GreenLeft 14
  • SP 14
  • PvdA (Labour) 10

The Dutch poll differed from Trump’s election and the Brexit referendum. Those were one-on-one, winner-take-all contests for which the victor needed 50% – or in the US poll, very nearly 50% – of the vote.

The result in the Netherlands was always going to be a coalition of at least four, possibly five, parties that will take months to form and have to govern by compromise and consensus. And all main parties had vowed not to work with Wilders.

So even if Geert Wilders’ PVV had ended up as the largest party, it would almost certainly have been locked out of government.

Even if it had not been, in order to pass new legislation it would have needed, as well as the lower house, the Dutch senate on board – where it currently has nine out of 75 seats.

Wilders may prompt comparisons with Trump and Brexit – in hairstyle, campaign slogan (“Take our country back”), presentation and predilection for Twitter – but it was never clear how much of his programme he could have implemented in practice.

Nor were the Dutch likely to vote to leave the EU any time soon. The prospect of a “Nexit” referendum had gained currency abroad, but the other parties would not have backed it and there is no evidence a majority of voters would either.

The far right in France and Germany would, certainly, have hailed a Wilders win as a nativist, anti-establishment triumph.

But despite loudly welcoming both Brexit and Trump as the beginning of a “patriotic revolution”, the Front National in France and AfD in Germany saw no improvement in their polling afterwards.

This projection of seats won, courtesy of Die Zeit and not a final tally, puts Rutte’s VVD on 33 seats, with the Christian Democrats in second place.

Wilders’ PVV shares third spot with Democrats 66 – but PVV is unlikely to be part of any coalition negotiations, with all major parties pledging not to work with the far-right party.

Before coalition negotiations begin on Thursday morning, incumbent PM – and likely next PM – Mark Rutte has some other business to attend to: teaching.

This visual shows the shift in voting in Amsterdam, where GreenLeft (GL) has surged to become the biggest winner – and Labour (PvdA) the biggest loser:

I’ve been speaking to supporters of GroenLinks (Green-Left), who quadrupled their MPs from four to 16. The party’s charismatic leader is being hailed as “Jessiah”, with similarities to Canadian prime minister Justin Trudeau.

They are realistic, instead of optimistic like the other left-wing parties

I hope their plans to raise the taxes for cars but lower the cost of public transport – as well as make it more accessible – happen. Also, their plans to lower the cost of university and increase financial aid. And the use of alternative energy sources.

Jesse Klaver is trustworthy, young and dynamic. They are rather realistic, instead of optimistic like the other left-wing parties.

– Eva,18, foreign language student in France, with Dutch nationality

I hope they can make sure we keep investing in foreign aid

I hope they make sure the next government invests more into renewable energy, that we keep investing in foreign aid, which is much more effective in dealing with the refugee problem than closing the borders.

I have mixed feelings about Klaver. Yes, he is a new impulse and he has a nice story to tell – young, son of a Moroccan father, worked hard – but it feels like he is using this story a bit too much. He is trying a bit too hard to be the new Dutch Obama or Trudeau.

– Stef, 21, university student, Tilburg

This election may determine whether we become the UK and US, or if we maintain our progressive values

Groenlinks is one of the few parties with fresh ideas. It has a young face and stands for tolerance and European integration, which are the most important things to cling to in the current political climate.

I want the Netherlands to be part of the EU, in which people live together in peace instead of spreading hate. Everyone is allowed to say what they want and believe what they want, up to the point where it insults other members of society.

This election may determine whether we become the UK and US, or if we maintain our progressive values of tolerance and harmony.

– Vlad, 19, student, living in Leiden

Our reporter Gordon Darroch, in the Hague, has some totting-up of seats and possible coalitions:

Negotiations to form a multi-party coalition to get that parliamentary majority will begin on Thursday and could continue for some time.

This is Claire Phipps picking up the live blog as it ticks over into Thursday in the Netherlands.

We have results from Amsterdam, where GreenLeft has come out on top:

I’m handing over this liveblog to my colleague Claire Phipps now, who will keep you posted with live results and reaction from the 2017 Dutch election as we get them.

Thanks for reading and being with us tonight. Or as GreenLeft might put it:

Angela Merkel congratulates Rutte

German chancellor Angela Merkel has congratulated Mark Rutte on his party’s strong showing in the 2017 election in a telephone conversation. According to Merkel spokesman Steffen Seibert, she said:

I look forward to working with you as friends, neighbours and Europeans.

Updated

GreenLeft leader hailed as the "Jessiah"

Jon Henley has this piece from the night on the surprise gains for the GreenLeft.

The big winner of Wednesday’s Dutch election – and now the largest party of the left for the first time – was GreenLeft, headed by 30-year-old Jesse Klaver, hailed by his enthusiastic supporters as the “Jessiah”.

According to a generally reliable Ipsos exit poll, the party, formed 25 years ago by a merger of communists, pacifists, evangelicals and self-styled radicals, quadrupled its MPs from four to 16 after a storming campaign by Klaver.

“This is a fantastic result for us, a historic victory,” said the GreenLeft chairwoman, Marjolein Meijer. The result showed there was “very fertile ground in the Netherlands for change and a positive and hopeful story,” she said. “For us this is just the start.”

The party celebrated its historic advance with a tweet showing a gif of Kermit the Frog dancing for joy.

Reports: PVV wins in Rotterdam

Dutch TV station RTV Rijnmond is reporting that PVV is the largest party in Rotterdam, the Netherlands’ second biggest city.

Geert Wilders has tweeted in response:

Updated

Mark Rutte: "The Netherlands has said enough to the wrong kind of populism"

Mark Rutte has spoken following the exit polls which put his party in pole position.

Here’s a loose translation of his speech:

It seems like for the third time in a row the VVD is the Netherlands biggest party.

Our message to the Netherlands – that we will hold our course, and keep this country safe and stable – got though.

I have had lots of European colleagues on the line. This is an evening where the Netherlands, after Brexit and Trump, said: “That’s enough of the wrong sort of populism.”

He called the high turnout “a festival of democracy”.

We also discovered his favourite song is Bruno Mars’ Uptown Funk, which is my take-home fact of the night.

Updated

Exit poll: Green parties increase representation

Author Rutger Bregman has pointed out that parties that are concerned with environmental issues doubled their number of seats from 15% to 31%.

Mark Rutte’s VVD party leading first Dutch election exit poll – video report

Mark Rutte’s VVD party leading first Dutch election exit poll – video report

GreenLeft hails "great results"

Kathalijne Buitenweg, the chair of the GreenLeft delegation in the European parliament, has commented on the party’s gains.

We’ve never had such great results – we quadrupled our seats – and I am incredibly proud of the party and all the people who voted and campaigned.

It’s clear people have had enough of the current climate of polarisation, and want a message of positivity and I am proud of that.

Updated

Socialist Party reacts to exit poll

Journalist Gordon Darroch has been reporting on the reaction of Socialist leader Emile Roemer, whose party lost one seat. As Darroch puts it: “Roemer doesn’t sound like a man who plans on stepping down in the morning.”

Updated

Prize for gif of the night

And the prize for best reaction to tonight’s exit poll from the Dutch election surely come from leftwing insurgents GreenLeft. It posted this pretty excellent gif of Kermit the Frog when the provisional results came through.

Jon Henley points out that the leftwing environmentalist party was set to be the big winners of the night, quadrupling its number of MPs to 16

Prime minister Mark Rutte and his liberal VVD party appear to have comfortably beaten the populist, anti-Islam Freedom party of Geert Wilders to become the largest in the new Dutch parliament, an early exit poll suggested.

In the first of three key European votes this year in which populist parties are seeking electoral breakthroughs, the VVD lost ten seats but was still on course for 31 seats in the 150-seat parliament, the Ipsos poll for Dutch broadcasters predicted.

Three other parties – the centre-right Christian Democrats (CDA), liberal-progressive D66 and Wilders’ PVV – were forecast to gain between four and seven seats each, all finishing with 19 MPs each.

The leftwing environmentalists of GreenLeft were set to be the big winners of the night, quadrupling their number of MPs to 16, the poll suggested, but the social democratic PvdA, Rutte’s outgoing coalition partners, appeared to have slumped to a historic low of nine seats from 38 in the current parliament.

Updated

Labour leader reacts to exit poll

Labour leader Lodewijk Asscher has called the party’s apparent decimation a “bitter evening” and congratulated Jesse Klaver of GreenLeft. He says the party led the country out of an economic crisis, but it had failed to convince supporters to vote for it again.

Updated

Carmen Fishwick asked Dutch voters why some people in the country, which is renowned for its liberal and tolerant culture, are drawn to Wilders’ party.

People need anything that shows that the government cares

Other political parties don’t offer any answer for the fears or problems that many Dutch feel they are facing. I personally don’t believe these problems are as big as perceived by many others. But then again, I have the luxury of being at a distance.

If other parties would offer, for example, an approach against groups of youths showing disrespectful behaviour, they could lure away a lot of PVV voters. It’s not that hard: more money for 24/7 police surveillance and social work, for example. People need anything that shows that the government cares.

– Lisa, 43, project manager living in Amsterdam

If you are far-right, you only have one real option

Geert Wilders is the only major party willing to quit the EU and ban Islam. If you are far-right, you only have one real option.

Many people feel like they have lost something due to neoliberal policies, as well as the country being more ethnically and culturally diverse. Not everything has been perfect with the assimilation of groups perceived as migrants even though the majority are well-functioning and hard-working.

For many it’s not that its bad at this very moment, it’s the feeling that if it goes on there will be enormous problems. Wilders is a walking middle finger, an outcry of despair.

– Imre Rossel, 19, Gouda

Supporters say that if you’re against Wilders you’re pro-Islam

I know a lot of people who will vote for him. They’re afraid of the Islam and refugees who take their money, supposedly.

People say that if you’re against Wilders you’re pro-Islam or something. But I don’t think he will be the biggest party because many people are going to vote for the Christian Democrats. Their leader said some really nationalistic things and profiles himself really as a right-wing party.

– Rens Verhaegh, 22, Nijmegen

Updated

Diplomatic row with Turkey a boon to Rutte?

Polling suggests that the high-profile spat between the Netherlands and Turkey – which saw Turkish ministers prevented from addressing rallies of Dutch Turks ahead of a referendum on granting Turkey’s president sweeping new powers – may have helped incumbent prime minister Mark Rutte.

Of those polled who said they voted VVD 34% said the Turkey crisis had played a role. Perhaps more importantly, 81% chose Rutte for his handling of the economy. (See “What are the issues” in this piece. )

This from Jon Henley and Gordon Darroch’s piece:

In a campaign dominated by Wilders’ core themes of immigration and integration, the row has “allowed Rutte to show himself as a statesman – and to send a Turkish minister packing”, said André Krouwel, a political scientist at Amsterdam’s Free University

“What better publicity could a politician want a few days before an election?” Klouwer said. “Rutte was able to show he could actually expel Turks, and to tell Wilders: ‘You’re just sitting there, tweeting’ … This has won Rutte the election.”

Updated

A playful jibe at the unprecedented global interest in the 2017 Dutch election:

Geert Wilders reacts to exit poll

Geert Wilders has thanked PVV voters following the exit poll, which appears to show that while his party gained seats it will fall far short of the 30 seats that polls were predicting he could gain at the start of the year.

A (loose) translation:

We have won seats! That’s the first victory! I’m not done with Rutte yet!

But according to journalist Robert Chesal, the PVV is the only political party not holding a post-election gathering.

High turnout

Whichever politicians the Dutch have chosen today, they have turned out in large numbers to vote.

Members of the Dutch CDA political party seem happy with the results.
Members of the Dutch CDA political party seem happy with the results. Photograph: Reuters

The elections saw the highest turnout in the past 31 years, with 82% of people going out to vote, according to Ipsos.

Updated

Historic loss for the Labour party

Dutch media outlet NOS is reporting that the exit poll could mean that the Labour party, one of the country’s largest has lost a record number of seats.

The numbers would see the PvdA, which was in a coalition government with the Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD), go from 38 seats to nine seats. That’s an unprecedented loss in Dutch politics. The leftwing party performed worse than it did in the 2002 election, in which it went from 45 seats to 23.

Updated

Exit poll results

Some analysis of what those results would mean, if the main exit poll is accurate:

Rutte’s centre-right VVD Party looks set to win 31 out of 150 seats.

Members of the VVD watch the polls in The Hague.
Members of the VVD watch the polls in The Hague. Photograph: Jerry Lampen/AFP/Getty Images

That is significantly ahead of the next three parties – Geert Wilders’ anti-immigration Freedom Party (PVV), the Christian Democrat Party and the liberal party. Each of these are set to get 19 seats, according to the exit poll.

The Labour party (PvdA) appears to be the biggest losers of the night, and could lose as many as 29 seats. The biggest winner appears to be Green Left, the left-wing Green party which looks to have gained 12 seats.

Updated

Impact on a future coalition

So what does this mean for a future Dutch coalition? Journalist Naomi O’Leary says there is no clear coalition of the right, while the left have been left in disarray.

Former leader of the social liberal Democrats 66 (D66) Lousewies van der Laan argues that if this exit poll is accurate Rutte can remain as prime minister.

Updated

Exit poll: disappointing night for Geert Wilders PVV

If this exit poll is accurate this shows a disappointing night for Wilders’ PVV; it’s also a devastating night for the Labour party, who are heading for a record low.

Updated

Exit polls

The first exit polls are in for the Dutch elections. They show Rutte’s VVD party on 31 seats, while Geert Wilders’s PVV is on 19, the same as the CDA and D66.

Members of GroenLinks are happy with the polls.
Members of GroenLinks are happy with the polls. Photograph: Robin van Lonkhuijsen/EPA

Obviously all exit polls have to be approached with a health warning, but if these are accurate it appears that the centrist VVD will emerge as the largest party.

Updated

A (smallish) range of Dutch political parties

My colleague Hanna Yusuf, a Dutch speaker who spent part of her childhood in the Netherlands, has produced this handy guide to some of the bigger political parties:

People’s Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD)
Political position: centre-right party
Leader: Mark Rutte (current PM)
Notes: currently in power in a coalition government with the PvdA
The Labour Party (PvdA)
Political position: centre-left
Leader: Lodewijk Ascher
Notes: currently in office in a coalition government with the VVD
Party for Freedom (PVV)
Political position: right-wing to far-right
Leader: Geert Wilders
Christian Democratic Appeal (CDA)
Political position: centre to centre-right
Leader: Sybrand van Haersma Buma
The Green Party (GroenLinks)
Position: centre-left
Leader: Jesse Klaver
Democrats 66 (D66)
Position: Centre (economic: centre-right, social: centre-left)
Leader: Alexander Pechtold
Socialist Party (SP)
Position: Left-wing
Leader: Emile Roemer
Christian Union (CU)
Position: centre to centre-right
Leader: Gert-Jan Segers
50 Plus (50+)
Position: centre
Leader: Henk Krol
Party for the Animals (PvdD)
Position: left-wing
Leader: Marianne Thieme
Reformed Political Party (SGP)
Position: right-wing
Leader: Kees van der Staaij

Ballots are emptied for counting as polling stations close in The Hague.
Ballots are emptied for counting as polling stations close in The Hague. Photograph: Reuters

Updated

Media analysis

Loth as I am to big up other media organisations’ coverage of the Dutch elections, if you finish reading everything the Guardian has to offer (I doubt this will happen, but just in case), here are a few bits that are worth a read/listen.

Simon Kuper, of the Financial Times, who grew up in the Netherlands, writes that Wilders “doesn’t worry the Dutch”.

Wilders’ views on asylum seekers, immigration and the EU influence the national debate. But polls show that the biggest issue for voters is “zorg” — which means both healthcare and eldercare. People are also worried about public rudeness and misbehaviour. Long technocratic TV debates on these topics draw big audiences.

All this is deeply tedious for foreigners. Even if Wilders finishes first on March 15, expect months of boring coalition talks, culminating in a government without Wilders. Then foreigners can forget about Dutch politics for another decade.

He also wrote a rather lovely piece from the Netherlands’ poorest village.

There is also a really interesting Radio 4 documentary in which journalist Tim Whewell asks, “Why is liberal, tolerant Netherlands home to one of Europe’s most successful anti-immigration, anti-Islamic parties?”

Here’s the blurb:

Unlike some far-right parties elsewhere in Europe, the PVV has no neo-Nazi roots. It’s loud in its support for gay and women’s rights. It promotes itself as a strong defender of Holland’s Jewish community. Is its ideology just an opportunistic mishmash? Or does it make some sense in a Dutch context? Searching for Henk and Ingrid, Tim Whewell sets off through Dutch “flyover country” - the totally un-photogenic satellite towns and modern villages that tourists, and Holland’s own elite, rarely see.

He asks if the PVV’s platform is just thinly disguised racism. Or has it raised important questions about immigration and multiculturalism that other European countries, including the UK, have been scared to ask?

Updated

Exit polls

Polls are set to close in about twenty minutes at 9pm local time (8pm GMT), and we’ll get the first exit poll soon after. According to Mudde: “Traditionally, exit polls have been pretty accurate in the Netherlands.”

Updated

High turnout

Turnout so far looks to be up to 73%, up from 65% in 2012 and just shy of the 75% who turned out in 2006.

Whether this will help or hinder Wilders appears to be up for debate:

But our man in The Hague, Jon Henley, points out that most analysts believe a high turnout will benefit the left and centre parties. A high turnout in big cities such as Amsterdam is “particularly bad news for Wilders”, he says.

That point is reiterated by political scientist Cas Mudde:

Updated

Timings

A little word on timings:

  • Polls close at 9pm local time (8pm GMT).
Late voters line up to cast their ballots in the last hour of the elections outside of a polling station in The Hague.
Late voters line up to cast their ballots in the last hour of the elections outside of a polling station in The Hague. Photograph: Remko de Waal/EPA
  • We expect the first exit poll at about 8.o5pm GMT and then a more accurate exit poll roughly 30 minutes later at 8.30pm GMT
  • Results will start to come in from some of the small islands quite quickly, but the big cities like Amsterdam and Rotterdam won’t declare until after 11pm GMT.
  • We should have a clearer idea of where things are by midnight GMT.

Updated

How cool, a drive-in polling station in Zevenhuizen.
How cool … a drive-in polling station in Zevenhuizen. Photograph: Marten van Dijl/EPA

Updated

Will polls fare any better in this election than in recent votes in the UK and the US?

For what it’s worth here are the most recent polling predictions from the latest Peilingwijzer poll of polls by Leiden University. They show the centrist People’s Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD) slightly in the lead.

Nonetheless, the extent of Geert Wilders’s popularity will be seen as a barometer of both populist and anti-immigration sentiment in Europe.

Here is a profile of the agitator-in-chief from Gordon Darroch:

Geert Wilders founded his Party for Freedom (PVV) in 2006 with a declaration of independence from the “elite in The Hague”, and from the outset has espoused anti-Muslim rhetoric, promising to enshrine the “dominance of the Judeo-Christian tradition” in the Dutch constitution.

As the country prepares to vote in national elections on 15 March, opinion polls have at times suggested that Wilders’ party could emerge as the country’s largest, despite recent slips. The strength of the anti-Islam, anti-EU populist PVV is reverberating around the country.

He is thought unlikely to enter government but in his decade agitating in Dutch politics, Wilders’s influence has changed the tone of debate in the country. He draws predictable comparisons with Donald Trump, but the similarities are mainly in style: a taste for sharp suits, incandescent hair dye and inflammatory tweets.

While Trump rode into Washington as an outsider, Wilders has spent 19 years in parliament and is fighting his fourth election as party leader.

Updated

This piece about what the Dutch election is – and is not – about is also excellent, and explains why the Dutch are not “doing a Brexit”, or indeed “a Trump”, this evening.

This is a key point from Cas Mudde:

3 The Dutch are not electing a president

International media style the Dutch elections as a “neck-and-neck race” between conservative prime minister Mark Rutte of the People’s Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD) and radical-right challenger Wilders, to fit the broader frame of status quo versus populism.

[...]

But however convenient it is for selling newspapers or for Rutte, this formula is inconsistent with the essence of the elections. The Dutch are electing a parliament, not a president or premier, and it is not guaranteed that the leader of the biggest party will be the premier.

In a parliamentary system the government needs the support of the parliamentary majority, not necessarily of the biggest party. Moreover, the struggle between Rutte and Wilders captures only a minority of the voters: together the VVD and PVV are only polling between 30 and 35%. In other words, the real story is somewhere else.

Updated

Klaas de Haan, 69 and his wife Aaltje, 67, pose next to King Willem-Alexander and Queen Maxima after casting their vote
Klaas de Haan, 69 and his wife Aaltje, 67, pose next to King Willem-Alexander and Queen Maxima after casting their vote Photograph: Muhammed Muheisen/AP

This is a fascinating vote, which has garnered an unprecedented amount of interest in the Dutch political system.

Whether you are coming to it fresh, or are a seasoned Netherlands’ politico, we have a comprehensive range of stories explaining the significance of today’s election.

A great starting place is this thorough preview from the inimitable Jon Henley, who is on the ground in The Hague.

What’s the political landscape and how does the system work?

There are 150 MPs in the Dutch parliament, meaning a government needs 76 seats to form a majority. No single party ever manages this and the Netherlands has been governed by coalitions for more than a century.

Parliament is elected by proportional representation in a single, nationwide constituency – which means that any party that wins 0.67% of the national vote is assured of a seat (key facts about the Dutch electoral system here).

Dutch politics have been marked in recent decades by a sharp decline in support for the three main parties of government from the centre-right and left. Their share of the vote has shrunk from more than 80% in the 1980s to a projected 40% this year.

This is a trend visible across Europe; see more about it here. In the Netherlands, it has been paralleled by a proliferation of smaller special interest parties: no fewer than 28 of them, many new, are contesting this election. As many as 14 are forecast to win seats, including eight with 10 or more MPs.

It is this fragmentation of the vote, rather than a big increase in support, that could see the PVV become the largest party. The movements that produced Brexit and Trump won about half the vote; Wilders’ is forecast to get below 20% (more from the Peilingwijzer poll aggregator here).

Updated

Welcome to the Guardian’s live blog of the 2017 Dutch elections – we’ll be covering developments throughout the night and into tomorrow, bringing you live news from the Netherlands as it happens.

With voters racing to polling stations before they close at 9pm local time (8pm GMT), all eyes are on the small European nation as the world waits to see if another populist insurgent can cause further political upset in Europe, or if the rising tide of populism can be stemmed.

Early indications show that the turnout in 2017 is higher than the last election in 2012. According to local media reports 43% of voters went to the polls by 2.45pm GMT compared with 37% in 2012.

Why do we care about this election?

It’s the first of three key European votes this year in which populist parties are hoping to match the success of Britain’s leave campaign and the victory of Donald Trump in the United States. France will go to the polls to elect a new president next month, while a general election in Germany is due in September.

The conservative prime minister, Mark Rutte, leader of the Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD) is up against the far-right, anti-Islam populist Geert Wilders, leader of the Party for Freedom (PVV).

Wilders has called for - among other things - the closing of mosques and Islamic schools, banning sales of the Qur’an and barring Muslim migrants. Rutte has said the election is an opportunity for voters to “beat the wrong sort of populism”.

The VVD leads the latest Peilingwijzer poll of polls by Leiden University, on 17% - which could equate to about 24-28 seats - while Wilders’ party is close behind on 14%, about 12-23. After recent elections, however, polls increasingly come with a fairly hefty health warning.

Even if the PVV emerge as the country’s largest party, it’s unlikely Wilders will enter government. The other mainstream parties have already made it pretty clear they will not enter into a coalition with him.

However, after shock results in the UK and the US, a strong showing for Wilders would further spook the Netherlands’ European neighbours and send further shockwaves across the continent.

Updated

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