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The Guardian - UK
The Guardian - UK
Politics
Andrew Sparrow

Cabinet ministers invited in to read near-complete text of EU withdrawal agreement - Politics live

Dominic Raab, the Brexit secretary, leaving Number 10 after yesterday’s cabinet meeting.
Dominic Raab, the Brexit secretary, leaving Number 10 after yesterday’s cabinet meeting. Photograph: Simon Dawson/Reuters

Afternoon summary

  • Cabinet ministers have been invited to read a near-complete draft of the proposed EU withdrawal agreement - although the text does not include the contentious Irish backstop proposals. Michael Gove, the environment secretary, has read it and described it as “a great document”, without elaborating. Downing Street sources have insisted that the text just shows “where we are so far” and that the development “does not imply that a deal has been done”. The withdrawal agreement “reading room” opened as it was reported that the cabinet meeting being planned to give ministers the chance to approve the full draft treaty, including the plan for the Irish backstop, has being postponed, perhaps until Monday. (See 4.53pm.)

That’s all from me for today.

Thanks for the comments.

Updated

The Telegraph’s Gordon Rayner thinks the cabinet meeting being held to give ministers the chance to approve a draft Brexit withdrawal agreement is being postponed until Monday.

Who is Geoffrey Cox?

Today’s row over whether or not the government should publish its Brexit legal advice illustrates how important the role of the attorney general has become. The post is held by the Brexiter Geoffrey Cox, who only joined the government earlier this year. He is now attracting considerable media interest. We published our own profile of him yesterday. Here are three more recent ones worth reading.

Some lawyers are bemused as to why he has become such a pivotal figure in the government. Jolyon Maugham, a barrister and leading Remainer, said Mr Cox’s experience was largely in criminal rather than EU law, which is central to the Brexit negotiations. “There must be probably 1,000 people in government better qualified to advise the government on what they are signing up to than Geoffrey Cox,” he added.

But one Conservative MP said Mr Cox was certain to be a force in the final stage of the cabinet’s deliberations about the Brexit withdrawal agreement. “He reminds me a bit of what people used to say about Lord Mackay [the former lord chancellor in [Margaret] Thatcher’s cabinet,” he added. “When he sums up an argument, nobody else has to say anything because he has said it all already. He’s very thorough.”

His legal connections are what interest the wider world. Philippe Sands QC, Professor of Law at University College London and by no means a Conservative, describes Cox in the following terms: “A grown-up lawyer with experience of life and the law, thoroughly independent and fearless in the best traditions of the English bar. I was much reassured by his appointment, relieved that there will be at least one grown up at the Cabinet table when the hard and painful legal realities of Brexit are addressed.”

Andrew Mitchell, former International Development Secretary and Chief Whip, says of Cox: “He’s a huge improvement. He looks and sounds like a proper, old-fashioned Attorney General and we are already calling him Sir Geoffrey. He has real presence and authority and we have not had that since Dominic Grieve. Everyone knows he will give his advice without fear or favour to the Prime Minister and the Government – unlike some of his predecessors, who have basically served up what the Prime Minister wanted to hear.”

Gimson also points out that, in his speech at the Tory conference, Cox stressed his belief that “the special genius of the British peoples has been the flexibility to find compromises”.

Friends of Cox warn that he does not pull his punches. “Geoffrey is fiercely independent,” says Mathew Sherratt QC, a barrister at Cox’s chambers and a colleague of 23 years. “If there’s something that needs to be said, he will say it. I’ve seen him stand up and reprimand judges in situations where young barristers have been bullied. He didn’t make his way at the Bar by kowtowing.”

Such steel will be more important still when Cox approaches his second moment of truth. This will be when the government begins its next round of trench warfare with backbenchers in the House of Commons.

The prime minister will invite MPs to endorse a motion approving the deal: the so-called “meaningful vote.” If the government can get that motion over the line, it will then bring forward legislation to implement the deal in UK law, the EU (Withdrawal Agreement) Bill. Both the motion and the Bill will, in all likelihood, be amended into oblivion by angry backbenchers—a referendum here, a customs union there, and maybe an attempt to delete the Irish “backstop” for good measure.

Geoffrey Cox leaving Number 10 after cabinet yesterday.
Geoffrey Cox leaving Number 10 after cabinet yesterday. Photograph: Mark Thomas/REX/Shutterstock

Updated

Sir Keir Starmer, the shadow Brexit secretary, in Brussels for his meeting with EU officials.
Sir Keir Starmer, the shadow Brexit secretary, in Brussels for his meeting with EU officials this afternoon. Photograph: Thierry Monasse/Getty Images

And Sky has also doorstepped Michael Gove, the Brexiter environment secretary, leaving the Cabinet Office after going in to read the near-complete text of the Brexit withdrawal agreement.

Updated

David Cameron, the former prime minister, has been spotted in Whitehall, Sky’s Tom Rayner reports.

Updated

And while we’re on the subject of government making dubious claims about its policies being endorsed by outside bodies (see 3.42pm), it is worth recording that Esther McVey, the work and pensions secretary, is under fire today on these grounds too.

On Monday, in a statement to the Commons on universal credit, she said:

Other charities have been saying that the department is now listening to what claimants, charities and MPs are saying. The Trussell Trust has said that. Gingerbread has said that. Mind has said that. Mencap has said that.

But Gingerbread, the charity that represents single parents, says she misrepresents its views. It has posted a Twitter thread on this, starting here.

And the mental health charity Mind made a similar argument yesterday, in a Twitter thread starting here.

Business groups say they're surprised by reports government lining them up to endorse Brexit deal

There was much interest yesterday in the leaked plan setting out how the government might sell Theresa May’s Brexit plan to the British people. We covered the story here, and you can read the document in full on the Huffington Post website here.

Number 10 argued (convincingly) that it was not an official document. But most reports did not say it was. The Times’ Sam Coates, one of the reporters who got the story, described it as notes apparently from a Whitehall official, and it is being taken seriously as an account of ideas being discussed at least informally at some level in government.

One interesting feature of the document is that it refers to a plan to get the Cabinet Office to produce an explainer showing saying what May’s Brexit deal “means for the public, comparing it to no deal, but not to our current deal”. (My italics.) Those familiar with the Brexit economic modelling will know full well why the government won’t want to compare the deal to the status quo.

Another feature of the document is that it assumes various organisations and individuals will be willing to back the deal. But there’s a hitch; no one seems to have asked them yet, and some of them are quite sniffy about the idea.

Here are responses from some of those identified as potential cheerleaders for the deal. Many of them were responding to tweets asking them about the document from the Labour MP Chuka Umunna, a leading anti-Brexit campaigner.

From the CBI

From the Institute of Directors

From the Labour mayor of Greater Manchester, Andy Burnham

From TheCityUK, which represents the financial services industry

From the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders

From the British Chambers of Commerce

From Henry Newman, director of the Open Europe thinktank

Cabinet ministers invited in to read near-complete text of EU withdrawal agreement

Cabinet ministers have been invited in to read an almost-complete text of the EU withdrawal agreement, Bloomberg is reporting. But it says this document does not include the Irish backstop proposals, which are the most contentious part and which still don’t seem to have been agreed.

We’ve been told ministers have been going into the Cabinet Office to read the text.

The EU published a draft of the text (pdf) in March, colour coded so as to show what was agreed (in green), what was agreed in principle (in yellow) and what was not agreed (in white). Soon afterwards the EU said that 75% of the text was agreed. Now Theresa May is saying it is 95% agreed, so what the ministers are reading will include quite a bit more than what is already in the public domain.

Updated

Blair says Brexit can still be stopped

The former Labour prime minister Tony Blair has restated his belief that Brexit can be stopped. Speaking at the Web Summit in Lisbon, he said he was he was “100% opposed to Brexit” and “up to the very end I am going to do everything I can to stop it”. He went on:

I think it is possible to stop it. It’s not in our political interest, it’s not in our economic interest, I think it weakens Britain and it weakens Europe.

Blair said that, if parliament voted down Theresa May’s Brexit deal, a second referendum could be held, which could lead to Britons voting to remain in the EU.

In my view a general election is highly unlikely because of the state of the Conservative party, unless they are suicidal - which in politics today you can’t discount.

Let’s assume they are not, they won’t want an election. No deal is obviously absurd, I think at least we should have the chance to go back to the people.

Tony Blair speaks to CNBC’s Karen Tso at the Web Summit in Lisbon.
Tony Blair speaks to CNBC’s Karen Tso at the Web Summit in Lisbon. Photograph: Handout/Web Summit via Getty Images

Bakery chain Greggs should be used as inspiration for reforms to take people out of poverty, according to a prominent Tory. As the Press Association reports, Tom Tugendhat, who has previously told how he would like to be prime minister, said Theresa May’s desk was “rather overloaded” by Brexit and she had been “drowned out” in her hopes to change the country.

In a speech on plans for economic and social reform, Tugendhat, who chairs the Commons foreign affairs committee, praised Greggs for helping staff to take a step up by giving them support to shift into more challenging roles. He said:

I like the way it’s run. The employees of that bakery get a share not just in the profit of their own labour but in the output of the firm as a whole.

After six months they get profit share and a chance to take part in a share save scheme that allows them to buy in at a discounted rate.

As the Press Association reports, Tugendhat said Tory personal allowance changes had taken most low-paid workers out of income taxation and it was now time to look at other ways to boost incomes. Speaking to the Social Market Foundation thinktank, he suggested using public money to reward companies who reward their staff “like Greggs”. He said tax breaks for profit sharing should be considered.

Asked whether the speech was a leadership bid, Tugendhat replied:

I’m not going to go through the usual humbug of ‘there’s no opening, there’s no job’. I got into politics to change my country. I got into politics because I care about the people and communities we live in. I got into politics because this is my home ... It’s not a leadership bid, it’s a bid to change the country.

A report has suggested the “only winning scenario” for Northern Ireland following Brexit is a united Ireland. As the Press Association reports, the Costs of Non-Unification - Brexit and the Unification of Ireland report forecasts that both Northern Ireland and the Irish Republic will suffer economically after the UK leaves the European Union.

The report examined three potential scenarios: a hard Brexit, in which all of the UK leaves the single market and the customs union; Northern Ireland remaining within the single market and customs union; and the unification of Ireland. It found that a hard Brexit would reduce Northern Ireland’s GDP by €10.1bn euro (£8.8bn) from 2021-25. Northern Ireland remaining within the single market and customs union would result in a GDP dip of €3.8bn (£3.3bn), it said. However, as the Press Association reports, the report found that a united Ireland would see Northern Ireland increase its GDP. The report said:

The only winning scenario is the case of unification where between 2018 and 2025, Northern Ireland would increase its GDP by €17.9bn.

If political actors nevertheless prefer a hard Brexit, or if they are willing to accept a hard Brexit for overarching political reasons, then they accept willingly high negative economic costs.

The report was produced by Canadian firm KLC Consultants for US-based Irish American organisation KRB Inc.

The Tory Brexiter Sir Bill Cash was once shadow attorney general. He is also calling for the Brexit legal advice to be published.

David Davis on why government's Brexit legal advice should be published

Stewart Jackson, who was chief of staff to David Davis when Davis was Brexit secretary, points out that Davis called for the government’s Brexit legal advice to be published in an article in the Sunday Times (paywall) on Sunday.

At the Downing Street lobby briefing on Monday, asked about Davis’s proposal, the prime minister’s spokesman replied: “There’s a longstanding principle that the government does not comment on [its] legal advice, full stop.” He would not comment further.

The No 10 line is broadly correct, although there is precedent for the government publishing details of its legal advice. Shortly before the Iraq war started, under intense pressure to show that the invasion was legal, Tony Blair published a nine-paragraph summary of his legal advice in the form of a written answer in the Lords. This provided MPs with some reassurance, but the move backfired when the full legal opinion was leaked two years later, showing that the attorney general’s considered view was more qualified than Blair admitted in 2003.

Here is an extract from Davis’s article.

Any final Brexit deal is one of the most fundamental decisions that a government will have taken in modern times. It’s no exaggeration to say that the authority of our constitution is on the line. So we have to get this right and the government has to be transparent.

It’s now time to publish the legal advice the cabinet has received. No ifs and no buts. Blair suffered because he wriggled and prevaricated. Look at how history regards him now. I would urge the prime minister to do the right thing and publish the advice, and if she won’t, then the cabinet should exert its authority to compel her to do so.

It’s not just politically the right thing to do, it’s also morally and ethically the right thing to do. I’ve long campaigned for civil liberties and open government. Frankly the public has a right to know.

David Davis at the Conservative conference watching a speech by Boris Johnson.
David Davis at the Conservative conference watching a speech by Boris Johnson. Photograph: Neil Hall/EPA

Updated

ITV’s political editor, Robert Peston, thinks the government will end up having to publish its Brexit legal advice.

He also suggests the legal advice is ultimately irrelevant, although on this point I think Peston is wrong. He is right about the decision to about whether or not to sign up to the Irish backstop, and the withdrawal agreement generally, being ultimately a political one, not one governed by strict legal considerations. But the agreement will have legal consequences (it will be an international treaty) and the legal implications of what it says will matter very much.

(Arguably Peston is also wrong about the Iraq legal advice too. In some respects that was a fig leaf, because the issue of whether or not the Iraq war was legal was not one that was every likely to be tried by an international court.)

Sir Keir Starmer, the shadow Brexit secretary, has now issued this statement about Labour wanting the government to publish its Brexit legal advice. He said:

Any agreement on the backstop can’t simply be a fudge that’s cobbled together to satisfy Theresa May’s cabinet.

It must be a robust and credible proposal that guarantees there will be no return to a hard border in Northern Ireland after Brexit.

That’s why it’s essential MPs are given the opportunity to scrutinise the attorney general’s legal advice before voting on the final deal. The public have the right to know precisely what the cabinet has signed up to and what the implications are for the future.

At this crucial stage, parliament should not be kept in the dark nor should the government try to bounce MPs into an agreement without all the facts.

This is from my colleague Dan Sabbagh on the latest steers we’re getting about the possible timing of the next Brexit cabinet meeting.

UPDATE: And my colleague Pippa Crerar has bad news for political journalists.

Updated

The Lib Dems also want the government’s Brexit legal advice to be published. In a statement Tom Brake, the Lib Dem Brexit spokesman, said:

Refusing to publish legal advice on Brexit makes a mockery of the discredited mantra ‘take back control’. Choosing to withhold this information from the public raises serious questions about what Tory ministers are trying to hide.

Liberal Democrats demand better. The government must stop these murky games and publish their legal advice in full. The people deserve access to this information, and the opportunity to reject the Brexit mess with a ‘people’s vote’.

Ed Balls is the fourth most popular politician in Britain, despite having not been a politician since 2015, according to a newly-released web tool from YouGov. The top three, in order, were Boris Johnson, Theresa May and Jeremy Corbyn.

While the table is among the thousands put together by YouGov from the organisation’s reams of careful polling data on all sorts of subjects, there is an important caveat: this table ranks the politicians just on positive approval ratings, not the net of positive versus negative, and so is largely based on recognition.

In total, 91% of YouGov respondents recognised Balls, which is perhaps more connected to Strictly Come Dancing than his stint as shadow chancellor.

It is nonetheless interesting who the more recognised, and thus popular, politicians are. Sadiq Khan is fifth, followed by Nigel Farage and then David Blunkett, who hasn’t been an MP for three years and a minister for 13.

YouGov say that of the 229 people listed on the “politicians and political figures” list, only 40 have net approval ratings, and of these just nine were recognised by more than 30% of respondents. Top of this list-within-a-list was Scottish Tory leader Ruth Davidson, recognised by 62% of people, and with a net approval rating of seven.

As is the case with YouGov tools, there is endless fun to be had in looking at the details, such as support by various age groups, and by gender.

It also shows other things polled on by YouGov are liked by people who approved of certain politicians. So, we know, Theresa May fans are often keen on Chris de Burgh, those who like Jeremy Corbyn also enjoy The Killing. If you like Boris Johnson, then you supposedly also like Piers Morgan and Boris Becker.

Make of all this what you will.

Updated

Labour joins calls for government to publish its Brexit legal advice

Sir Keir Starmer, the shadow Brexit secretary, is also calling for the government’s Brexit legal advice to be published, the Evening Standard’s Kate Proctor reports.

The DUP wants the government to publish its legal advice relating to the Brexit withdrawal agreement and the Irish backstop. (See 9.36am.) As the BBC reports, Michael Gove, the environment secretary, is also insisting that at the very least cabinet ministers get to read it in full.

The BBC’s Laura Kuenssberg says there could be an attempt to use a parliamentary vote to force the government to release it.

It’s no secret that Brexit is consuming attention in Whitehall to the exclusion of almost everything else. But Business Insider has got a fresh line on that this morning. Thomas Colson has interviewed Sir Mark Lyall Grant, who was national security adviser until the 2017 general election, and he says that while he was in post NSC meetings had to be cancelled because of Brexit. He told the website:

Theresa May was very clear that she wanted to continue meetings of the National Security Council on a regular basis [after the EU referendum] but there began to be more disruption.

Meetings were cancelled at the last minute because there had to be another meeting on Brexit.

As the Holyrood government prepares for its own budget next month, the Scottish Parliament Information Centre has produced a fascinating blog looking at what the UK’s budget of last week means for Scottish taxpayers.

It shows a potentially stark difference between the amount of income tax paid by those earning around £50,000 in Scotland and rUK (the rest of the UK), with Scots paying £1343 more per year. It certainly gives the Scottish Tories further ammunition to accuse the Scottish government of penalising “senior middle classes”, as they characterise it.

Meanwhile, Holyrood’s finance committee today warns that Scotland’s ageing population poses a “real risk” to the country’s future budget, with the working-age population set to fall from 2018 onwards, along with a significant increase in over-75s.

Accompanying this fall is a decrease in immigration, with Scotland likely to be disproportionately affected by any drop in numbers after Brexit. Holyrood has consistently called for a more tailored approach to migration for Scotland, but the UK government has opposed devolving such powers.

The Scottish parliament building
The Scottish parliament building Photograph: Jeremy Sutton-Hibbert/Getty Images

Updated

Sir Keir Starmer, the shadow Brexit secretary, is visiting Brussels today. In an interview with the Today programme before his departure, he restated Labour’s determination to vote against a Brexit deal that it sees as flawed. He said:

It is not the duty of the opposition to back the prime minister come what may. What we can’t be expected to do now, with a gun to our head, is to back the prime minister whatever she brings back, however good or bad and without any detail. That is not opposition - that is surrender.

He also said that he did not accept that voting down May’s deal would have to lead to a no deal Brexit.

The legislation we have already passed requires the prime minister to come back to parliament and make a statement about what she proposes to do if her deal does not go through.

If the vast majority of parliament, and I believe it is the vast majority, says they are not prepared to leave without a deal then the prime minister does not have permission, nor can she simply exit without a deal.

In any world where these negotiations have failed so profoundly as they would have, then there would be a general election.

After the interview Nicola Sturgeon, Scotland’s first minister, tweeted to say that she agreed.

Keir Starmer signing a poster for a delegate at the Labour conference in September.
Keir Starmer signing a poster for a delegate at the Labour conference in September. Photograph: Oli Scarff/AFP/Getty Images

Tusk says he's speaking to May this morning about Brexit developments

Donald Tusk, president of the European council, says he will be speaking to Theresa May this morning to discuss Brexit developments.

Irish and Finnish PMs cast doubt on chances of Brexit deal being finalised in November

The Irish Taoiseach Leo Varadkar has cast doubt about the chances of sealing a Brexit deal in November, although he said a special summit this month remains on the table. He told journalists this morning:

I think it’s possible for us to come to an agreement in November with a view to having a summit in November, but I do think with every day that passes the possibility of having a special summit in November becomes less likely.

The more relaxed EU view on timing contrasts with the British government’s desire to seal a deal in the coming days. Hopes in Westminster for an imminent agreement were revealed in a draft PR plan on selling a Brexit deal, although the British government has disowned the paper.

Pointing to the EU summit on 13-14 December, Varadkar said there was still time.

Not getting it done in November doesn’t mean we can’t get it done in the first two weeks in December.

The Taoiseach was meeting his Finnish counterpart Juha Sipilӓ in Helsinki to discuss the EU agenda, including Brexit.

The Finnish PM also appeared to lean towards December as a more likely moment for a Brexit breakthrough. “It’s doable in November,” he said, adding:

In our December meeting there is a possibility to find a solution. All the issues are in the landing zone.

The public view of the two leaders is shared in private by EU officials, who stress that a lot of work remains to close the gap between the two sides on the contested issue if the Irish backstop, a guarantee to avoid a hard border on the island of Ireland.

Finnish prime minister Juha Sipilä welcomes Irish prime minister Leo Varadkar at the prime minister’s official residence Kesäranta in Helsinki, Finland
Finnish prime minister Juha Sipilä welcomes Irish prime minister Leo Varadkar at the prime minister’s official residence Kesäranta in Helsinki, Finland Photograph: Antti Aimo-Koivisto/AFP/Getty Images

DUP delivers Brexit warning to May, saying 'we're not afraid of general election'

After yesterday’s cabinet meeting Downing Street said Theresa May was “confident” of securing a Brexit deal with the EU. But reaching a deal is not the same as getting it through the Commons and, as the cabinet was meeting, Sir Jeffrey Donaldson, the DUP chief whip, posted a message on Twitter saying that he thought UK was heading for a no deal Brexit because of the demands the EU and Dublin are making for the Irish backstop.

This morning Donaldson was on the Today programme digging in. The DUP has a confidence and supply agreement with the Conservatives that means it is supposed to support the government on key votes, including on Brexit, but it is opposed to some of the ideas being floated for the Irish backstop (the fallback mechanism in the agreement to avoid a hard border in Ireland, if the new trade relationship does not by itself, as London hopes, deliver a frictionless border) and Donaldson made it clear that the DUP was willing to vote against May’s deal. He told the programme:

If we think a Brexit deal is not good for the United Kingdom, we will say so. We’ve been very clear about that. The one thing you won’t accuse the Democratic Unionist party of is not being straight talking; we are straight talking.

When it was put to him that voting down May’s deal could lead to a general election, he replied:

Let’s see what the deal is. We’re not afraid of a general election.

At Westminster there has always been an assumption that, in practice, the DUP would not do anything to trigger an election because of the risk that that could lead to Jeremy Corbyn, a longterm Sinn Fein ally who is close to its former leader, Gerry Adams, becoming prime minister. But when this was put to Donaldson, he dismissed it as a consideration. He said:

It won’t be the decision of the Democratic Unionist party to do that [put Corbyn in Number 10], with respect. But I’ll tell you what - I’m quite happy to go to the people of Northern Ireland on the basis that we voted against a deal because it was not in the interests of Northern Ireland; it would have resulted in Northern Ireland being annexed from the United Kingdom.

We are unionists at the end of the day. We want the United Kingdom to stay together. And we are not alone in this. There are many in the House of Commons, including the Scottish Conservatives, who don’t agree that the kind of proposals that Dublin are pushing [on the Irish backstop] are good for the United Kingdom, never mind Northern Ireland.

You would expect the DUP to be talking tough at this stage because key decisions will be taken very soon and they want to maximise their leverage. But that does not necessarily mean they are bluffing; there are few parties in the UK that have had more practice at saying no to the British government, even when compromise seems reasonable. (Remember the DUP refused to back the Good Friday agreement, which is now widely seen as the most beneficial thing to happen to Northern Ireland for a generation.)

In his interview Donaldson also called for the publication in full of the government’s legal advice about how the Irish backstop might operate. He said:

I think it’s in the public interest we understand fully what’s happening here. It’s because it affects the whole UK therefore it shouldn’t just be the DUP that sees this advice, or the government.

If the House of Commons is going to have a meaningful vote on a deal that includes, and upon which this legal advice is very, very important, then I think people are entitled to know what that advice is.

My colleague Peter Walker has a full account here.

Parliament is having a mini-recess for the rest of this week, and so it could be a quiet day at Westminster. Here is the agenda.

11am: Tom Tugendhat, the Conservative MP who chairs the Commons foreign affairs committee, gives a speech to the Social Market Foundation.

1.15pm (UK time): Sir Keir Starmer, the shadow Brexit secretary, holds meetings with EU officials in Brussels.

As usual, I will also be covering breaking political news as it happens, as well as bringing you the best reaction, comment and analysis from the web. I plan to post a summary at lunchtime and another when I wrap up, at some point after 4pm.

Here is the Politico Europe round-up of this morning’s political news. And here is the PoliticsHome list of today’s top 10 must-reads.

If you want to follow me or contact me on Twitter, I’m on @AndrewSparrow.

I try to monitor the comments BTL but normally I find it impossible to read them all. If you have a direct question, do include “Andrew” in it somewhere and I’m more likely to find it. I do try to answer direct questions, although sometimes I miss them or don’t have time.

If you want to attract my attention quickly, it is probably better to use Twitter.

Updated

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