College Football News Preview 2021: Previewing, predicting, and looking ahead to the Duke Blue Devils season with what you need to know.
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– What You Need To Know: Offense | Defense
– Top Players | Key Players, Games, Stats
– What Will Happen, Win Total Prediction
– Duke Schedule Analysis
– Duke Previews
2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015
2020 Record: 2-9 overall, 1-9 in ACC
Head Coach: David Cutcliffe, 14th year, 74-88 (118-117 overall)
2020 CFN Final Ranking: 92
2020 CFN Preview Ranking: 51
2019 CFN Final Ranking: 88
Duke College Football Preview 2021: Offense
– The offense stalled. It was able to move the ball from time to time, but it was crushed by turnovers and massive mistakes. The overhaul starts at quarterback with the door open 6-3 junior Gunnar Holmberg to step up and take over for Chase Brice – who transferred to Appalachian State – with Job One being to not give the ball away. More on that later.
– The passing game needs more explosion after averaging just 11 yards per reception. 6-5 leading receiver Jake Bobo is back in a receiving corps loaded with experience, but top TE Noah Gray will be sorely missed. All-around back Deon Jackson is also done, but leading higher Mataeo Durant returns along with Jordan Waters to add a little more pop.
– The Blue Devils had a hard time operating behind a line that was among the worst in the country in sacks allowed, but three starters return along with most of the depth. This isn’t going to be a blasting line that hammers out a big-time running game, but it has to limit the pressure.
– What You Need To Know: Defense
– Top Players | Key Players, Games, Stats
– What Will Happen, Win Total Prediction
– Duke Schedule Analysis
NEXT: Duke College Football Preview 2021: Defense
4. Duke College Football Preview 2021: Defense
– The defense didn’t get any help from the offense, but it didn’t do enough on its own, either. The Blue Devils gave up 445 yards and 38 points per game, was awful against the run and struggled to get off the field. The pass rush was strong and there were enough takeaways to matter, but the whole thing should’ve been better – there was too much talent in place to be so mediocre.
– The linebacking corps went really, really young last season, and now comes the payoff. 6-4, 220-pound Shaka Heyward is a keeper – he led the team with 80 stops – as the main man along with Dorian Mausi, a safety-sized potential pass rusher in the 4-2-5.
– The problem, though, is up front where three of the four starters are gone and a whole lot of help is needed on the ends. The tackles have options, but the bulk has to emerge around 255-pound Ben Frye – who’ll likely move to end. Finding pressure is a must with Heyward the only one returning among the top six playmakers behind the line.
– Duke generally has an undersized front six, but the secondary makes up for it with large safeties and decent, physical tacklers at all five spots. Safeties Marquis Waters and Michael Carter are gone – losing Waters to Temple hurts – but J’Marick Woods is a promising 6-3, 215-pound grad student at one safety job, and the corner tandem of Jeremiah Lewis and Leonard Johnson – both go about 6-1 and 190 – are back.
NEXT: Duke College Football Preview 2021: Top Players
Duke College Football Preview 2021: Top Players
Best Duke Offensive Player
RB Mataeo Durant, Sr.
The thin, quick, 6-1, 195-pound back took over at times last season for an offense that desperately needed someone to help out the error-prone passing attack. His four 100-yard games in the last seven were a bright spot. The 2021 leading rusher isn’t a workhorse but has terrific speed, averaged 6.8 yards per carry with a team-high 817 yards and eight scores, and he can catch a little, too.
2. QB Gunnar Holmberg, Jr.
3. WR Jake Bobo, Sr.
4. OT Casey Holman, Jr.
5. C Graham Barton, Soph.
Best Duke Defensive Player
LB Shaka Heyward, Jr.
While he’s not exactly built for the part, the 6-4, 220-pound inside linebacker holds up well and can move, leading the team with 80 stops to go along with three sacks and 8.5 tackles for loss. He might not be too much in pass coverage, but that’s not his job. Don’t expect thump, but he’ll get the job done against the run.
2. CB Jeremiah Lewis, Jr.
3. CB Leonard Johnson, Sr.
4. LB Rocky Shelton, Jr.
5. LB Dorian Mausi, Soph.
Top Incoming Duke Transfer
DT Ja’Mion Franklin
The best and the only meaningful transfer so far, the former Notre Dame defensive tackle is a 6-1, 310-pound big body for a defensive interior that needs as many bulk options as possible.
NEXT: Duke College Football Preview 2021: Keys To The Season
Duke College Football Preview 2021: Keys To The Season
Duke Biggest Key: Offense
It’s very, very simple … STOP TURNING THE BALL OVER. To be a little bit fair, it’s not like former QB Chase Brice had a whole lot of time to work, but the interceptions were devastating for an offense that shot itself in the foot over and over and over again.
The Blue Devils led the nation with 39 turnovers – the -19 turnover margin is actually a gift thanks to a D that could take the ball away a bit – with a whopping seven games with three or more giveaways.
How bad was it? Louisville was -12 in turnover margin – that was the second-worst team in college football in the category.
But this isn’t new. Duke has given the ball away two or more times in 14 of the last 17 games and in 20 of the last 25.
Duke Biggest Key: Defense
Hold up better against the run. Duke has enough size to fold into the mix to not be a total pushover, but the defense could never take control of games because 1) the offense did everything it could to screw up and put the D in bad positions and 2) teams were able to run at will, especially as the season went on.
The first half of last year wasn’t bad with Virginia Tech the only team that went off on the ground in the first seven games, and then things got rough with the Blue Devils allowing 324 rushing yards or more in three of the last four games and 220 to Miami.
Getting hit by the Canes and North Carolina was one thing, but Florida State was able to run at will averaging 7.5 yards per carry with six touchdowns. And now the 2021 Blue Devils have to replace three starters up front.
The Blue Devils have lost their last 13 games going back to 2018 when allowing 178 or more rushing yards.
Duke Key Player To A Successful Season
QB Gunnar Holmberg, Jr.
He’s got enough size, a decent enough arm, and just enough mobility to be what the David Cutcliffe offense needs, but he has to not just settle the position with Chase Brice and Chris Katrenick transferring out, but take it up a few notches.
No one’s asking for Daniel Jones – Daniel Jones wasn’t even sixth-overall pick Daniel Jones-good for Duke back in 2019 – but as long as he’s not throwing a ton of interceptions and he’s able to keep the chains moving, it’ll be a big improvement at the position.
Duke Key Game To The 2021 Season
Northwestern, Sept. 18
Sometimes a program needs something positive to set a good tone. After a disastrous 2020 and a disappointing 2019, Duke has a shot at a huge start with a home win over Northwestern. Take down the defending Big 12 West champ, and with Kansas to follow and North Carolina A&T and Charlotte before, it should be a 4-0 start before diving into the ACC season.
2020 Duke Fun Stats
– Turnovers: Duke 39 – Georgia Tech & Mississippi State (the two teams with the second-most turnovers in college football) 25
– Time of Possession: Opponents 31:26 – Duke 28:34
– 2nd Half Scoring: Opponents 221 – Duke 119
NEXT: Duke College Football Preview 2021: What Will Happen, Season Prediction
Duke College Football Preview 2021: What Will Happen, Season Prediction
Duke has to pull up out of the nosedive.
It’s a program that’s usually good enough to beat all the bottom-feeders on the schedule, come up with at least one 50/50 game win, and then pull off a shocker to make a push for bowl eligibility, but last year nothing seemed to work in a 2-9 campaign that was the worst season since going 1-11 in 2007.
Duke went from eight wins in 2018, to five in 2019, to the two of last year, and unless there’s something special and surprising happening, there doesn’t appear to be too much to suggest that a big change is coming.
But it’ll be a better season than 2020.
Set The Duke Regular Season Win Total At … 5
The lines have to be better, the offensive playmakers have to stop giving the ball away, and the defense has to find more production even after doing a great job of getting into the backfield and forcing takeaways.
After the way last year collapsed down the stretch, a big September is a must, and then it’s about pulling off a few upsets to get close to bowl eligibility. To do all of that, though, the offense has to be the David Cutcliffe offense again.
There has to be some schematic advantage, and for a program like this, it has to do all of the little things right – to hammer this point home even further, that starts with winning the turnover battle.
Getting to three wins is a given – Charlotte, North Carolina A&T and Kansas – but there aren’t any true layups in ACC play. Again, it’ll be an improvement of a season, but there’s a ton of work to do to get to six wins.
– What You Need To Know: Offense | Defense
– Top Players | Key Players, Games, Stats
– Duke Schedule Analysis
