It was sunshine and shirtsleeves here on Saturday for the first afternoon of Arc weekend and the best news of all for thousands of racing fans making the trip to France was that a forecast of heavy rain for the track on Sunday has dwindled to little or no rain at all. Enable, the hot favourite for the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe, now seems unlikely to face a muddy slog and that may be enough to persuade many waverers that she is a good thing to win her fifth Group One race of the season.
Most bookmakers make Enable an even-money chance for the big race, though another suggested on Friday that she could drift to a shade of odds-against on the day. For practical purposes, though, she is a 22-carat evens chance, a coin-toss to beat 17 opponents, and every punter will have their own idea about the factors that matter most as they weigh up which way to call.
Bottomless ground may now be less of a worry for favourite backers, but simple bad luck in running could beat Enable too: a slow start, a gap closing or a run checked at a vital moment. She is the clear form horse in the race and none of Frankie Dettori’s rivals will be doing them any favours.
But Enable’s rider has always been the jockey for the big occasion and if anyone can be trusted to steer an effective path from stall two it is Dettori.
Above all, though, there is the chance that Enable will beat Enable, not through any failing of courage or attitude but simply because, at the end of a six-race season that started on 21 April and has included four Group Ones, scaling one final peak will prove too much.
This is the question that really makes the race and the market, the one that can be answered only when the stalls open this. Some pointers imply that it is a significant concern, such as the fact that no three-year-old filly trained in Britain or Ireland – where the best of them tend to race regularly at the top level through the summer – has won an Arc. Others, such as John Gosden’s form and record in the biggest autumn events, suggest otherwise.
Enable may not need to run up to her King George form to win, but she will have to get quite close and my own view is that the lingering effects of an outstanding season are enough of a worry to rule her out as a bet at even money.
Many will disagree, and they may well be queueing at the PMU windows to collect here after a hugely popular success, but Enable’s short price invites an each-way bet against her.
The King George form – when Enable beat Ulysses by four-and-a-half lengths – suggests Ulysses is unlikely to bridge the gap and his draw in stall one will also make life difficult for a horse that seems sure to be held up.
Winter, the other top three-year-old filly in the field, has attracted support after Ryan Moore picked her out from Aidan O’Brien’s five runners, but, like Enable, she has been busy all year. Unlike Enable she is unproven at the trip and not an obvious candidate to get it.
O’Brien had the 1-2-3 last year and completed a Group One double at Newmarket on Saturday with Clemmie, the favourite, in the Cheveley Park Stakes and US Navy Flag, a 10-1 second-string, in the Middle Park Stakes.
On that basis, Order Of St George and Capri, and perhaps even Seventh Heaven, deserve respect, but Moore has ridden all of them in the past and opted for Winter.
The French challenge looks unusually weak, with Brametot, another trying the trip for the first time, having finished well beaten last time out and Zarak, who has yet to show the level of form required here, drawn on the wide outside.
Satono Diamond looks below the standard of recent Japanese challengers that have tried and failed.
Dschingis Secret, though, looks much more like what is required. Horses trained in Germany rarely receive much attention or respect from British backers and bookies, but Dschingis Secret has put together a run of excellent performances over the year, including a convincing win in the Prix Foy with Satono Diamond well beaten. He is classy, consistent and too big at 14-1 to become the second German-trained Arc winner since 2011.
GREG WOOD’S SUNDAY SELECTIONS
EPSOM
2.10 Phoenix Lightning 2.40 The Revenant 3.15 Sparte Quercus 3.45 Swiss Storm 4.20 Fair Power 4.55 Ajman King 5.30 Cricklewood Green (nap)
MUSSELBURGH
2.00 Handsome Bob 2.30 Eller Brook 3.00 Raselad (nb) 3.35 Vintage Dream 4.10 Set In Stone 4.45 Stanarley Pic 5.20 Star Cracker
