The Canadian men’s national team will find out its opponents for the 2026 FIFA World Cup group stage on Dec. 5, and the draw is likely to determine Canada’s potential to make a deep run as a surprise team in their first men’s World Cup games on home soil.
Jesse Marsch’s team ended the 2024 international calendar ranked No. 26 in the world, a seed that would have seen them as a Pot 3 team in most World Cups. Yet, as hosts alongside the United States and Mexico, they were auto-placed in Group D and Pot 1, avoiding some of the world’s best teams.
Over the last several years, Canada has tested itself against opponents from Concacaf, UEFA, CONMEBOL, AFC and CAF to best prepare for the World Cup.
With those experiences in mind, Sports Illustrated picks the best and worst groups Canada could get, not based on current FIFA ranking, but how Canada could stack up.
Rules of Engagement
- Canada cannot draw another Concacaf opponent
- Canada cannot draw one of the intercontinental playoff teams in Pot 4, leaving a 50% chance to get a UEFA team.
- Canada will open the tournament in Toronto against a Pot 4 team, and then play Pot 3 and Pot 2 to close the Group Stage in Vancouver.
Best Potential Group: Australia, Scotland, New Zealand
| Nation | Pot |
|---|---|
| Canada (Concacaf) | 1 |
| Australia (AFC) | 2 |
| Scotland (UEFA) | 3 |
| New Zealand (OFC) | 4 |
With all the experience Canada has had playing opponents from around the world the last several years, taking on a team that you’ve already played could be of some benefit. While Canada lost to Australia in October, they dominated possession and controlled the pace of play, but had their usual struggle against a low block. With the potential of game-changing players like Alphonso Davies back in the lineup for the World Cup though, that match could go differently.
With Scotland, you have to have at least one UEFA team in your group, so why not go with the one returning to the World Cup for the first time since 1998? There’s no easy match, even in a 48-team World Cup, but of European teams, Scotland wouldn’t be the worst to draw.
The Pot 4 team, though, could really set the tone for Canada as it will be the opponent for the opening match on June 11 in Toronto, the lone match for the nation in the country’s biggest city. Some theories would say to play a more difficult opponent to sharpen up further, but we’re going with the potential of a more comfortable effort—welcome to Toronto, New Zealand.
Second Best Potential Group: Iran, Ivory Coast, Jordan
| Nation | Pot |
|---|---|
| Canada (Concacaf) | 1 |
| Iran (AFC) | 2 |
| Ivory Coast (CAF) | 3 |
| Jordan (AFC) | 3 |
Iran is beatable; Canada played to a scoreless draw with the Ivory Coast last summer, and Jordan’s first-ever World Cup game to open the tournament at home could make for a friendly draw for Canada, even though no game is a surefire victory.
Worst Potential Group: Morocco, Norway, UEFA Playoff A
| Nation | Pot |
|---|---|
| Canada (Concacaf) | 1 |
| Morocco (CAF) | 2 |
| Norway (UEFA) | 3 |
| Italy, Northern Ireland, Wales or Bosnia and Herzegovina (UEFA Playoff A) | 4 |
If Canada gets UEFA playoff A, they might not have much of a home game to open the tournament in Toronto. A city widely known for its significant Italian population, the smallest venue at the World Cup could see a sea of Azzurri blue instead of Canada red. At the same time, facing the 12th team in the FIFA rankings is anything but favorable—if they qualify, that is. Italy still have to get past Northern Ireland and then one of Wales or Bosnia and Herzegovina in the playoffs.
Outside of Italy, taking on Morocco could be dangerous for Canada. While their 2022 World Cup group stage clash came at a very different time for both sides, Canada were exceptionally overwhelmed throughout.
And with Norway, who Canada would need a result against in their second game, there’s a little player named Erling Haaland, the best goalscorer in the game.
The potential of Colombia, Ecuador, Uruguay or other South American behemoths could be frightening as well. Still, Marsch’s men would likely hold a level of confidence after strong showings against each through the 2024 Copa América and friendlies.
Second Worst Potential Group: Colombia, Egypt, UEFA Playoff B
| Nation | Pot |
|---|---|
| Canada (Concacaf) | 1 |
| Colombia (CONMEBOL) | 2 |
| Egypt (CAF) | 3 |
| Ukraine, Sweden, Poland or Albania (UEFA Playoff B) | 4 |
Opening the tournament against a UEFA team coming off high-pressure games would be challenging, even if it’s Ukraine, who were beaten 4–2 by Canada last summer. Alexander Isak’s Sweden, a Poland side boasting Robert Lewandowski or Albania could also qualify.
Meanwhile, Egypt brings the star power of Liverpool’s Mohamed Salah and Egyptian-Canadian Omar Marmoush, who would want to show well in the country where he spent his childhood. Colombia can be outstanding on their day; even though Canada outplayed them in a scoreless draw in October.
Best Vibes Group: Colombia, Scotland, Ghana
| Nation | Pot |
|---|---|
| Canada (Concacaf) | 1 |
| Colombia (CONMEBOL | 2 |
| Scotland (UEFA) | 3 |
| Ghana (CAF) | 4 |
It might not be the easiest group, but what would be the most fun for Canada? Taking on Colombia and Scotland at BC Place, and Ghana at BMO Field might just be that mix.
You get a familiar opponent in Colombia, an experienced World Cup side in Ghana, and a Scottish team that shares many similarities with Canada in fighting for relevance in world football, let alone the large Scottish community in Vancouver.
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This article was originally published on www.si.com as Dreams and Nightmares: Canada’s Possible 2026 World Cup Groups.
