There is a tongue-in-cheek line in Evelyn Waugh’s 1928 novel Decline and Fall – “We can trace almost all the disasters of English history to the influence of Wales” – that resonates on weekends like this. England have played international rugby across the Severn since 1882 yet there is never a year, even now, when they approach the bridge toll booths whistling the carefree tune of the entirely relaxed.
For outsiders such as Eddie Jones this is ridiculous. Can one short river crossing really make a major psychological difference? The cost of driving a car from England to Wales rose by 10p to £6.70 last month but there are no real surprises on the other side. Along with every other away venue in the Six Nations, there will just be a packed stadium containing thousands of people extremely keen to see England finish second.
What sets Cardiff apart, perhaps, are the noises, the sheer city-centre visibility of the pre-match desire and the unbounded relish – with Brains and curry sauce on top – whenever it is sated. England have tasted bitter defeat in Edinburgh, Dublin and Paris down the years but it is the feverish scarlet nightmares that often endure longest. Who can forget the 30-3 slam-dunk in 2013? Or their inability to win on Welsh soil between 1963 and 1991? Even though England prevailed on their last visit two years ago, their dragon-sized demons have not been entirely slain.
Mind games or not, Jones is entitled to pose the question: does this old-school stuff still matter in 2017? On his watch England have already conquered Murrayfield, sacked Rome, prospered in Paris and seen off the Wallabies in Brisbane, Melbourne and Sydney. The coach has more of an affinity with Mad Max than Max Boyce and the 1970s are an awful long time ago. JPR, JJ, and Gareth are in their late 60s now; all great men but their impact on big games is not quite what it was.
Better, perhaps, to turn the equation on its head. When Wales head to Twickenham, with the last quarter of the 2015 World Cup pool game a conspicuous exception, red does not necessarily spell danger. England have already beaten their opponents twice under Jones in the past 12 months. A few more inflatable daffodils and 150 miles of motorway should not, in theory, make that much difference.
Going back two years, Stuart Lancaster’s England also showed the way. The flame throwers, the heavenly bread, the regimental goat, Hymns and Arias ... none of it could prevent the visiting team from leaving with a well-earned 21-16 win.
The pre-match tunnel standoff set the stubborn tone, Jonathan Joseph and George Ford provided the requisite flashes of class and the upshot was a stirring comeback from 16-8 down at half-time. “We know we’ve got to be driven by performance ... I don’t think it’s about putting a picture of Justin Tipuric’s head on a dartboard,” Tom Wood warned beforehand and he duly watched the team deliver.
So why the faint anxiety this time? These days the teams are required to take the field together, so the tunnel issue is sorted. But then you look at England’s rookie back row and remember how fiercely motivated Wales will be under the patriotic Alun Wyn Jones, about to win his 107th cap. Slightly mischievously, I once asked the ultra-competitive Jones if he ever wished he had been born an Englishman? “I’d have moved to Wales,” came the instant reply, “because I’d rather be Welsh.”
It is in this emotional context that Jones’s slightly offhand reference to “a country of 3m people” strayed into risky territory. You need only 23 players in a match day squad and having a small population has never held back New Zealand. Wales have won four Six Nations titles, including three grand slams since 2005. Tell a Welsh rugby player he’s useless and he may be privately inclined to believe you. Tell him his country loves him and the English are coming and you effectively ignite a stick of dynamite.
England, consequently, need to reconnect with their inner St George and steel themselves for the molten passion pouring down from the stands. In 2013 that proved impossible. “We felt we were overcome by the power of the emotion in the stadium,” Wood admitted. “We went in confident and we’d prepared well but, ultimately, the passion of the Welsh fans and the cauldron that was the Millennium Stadium caught us off-guard. I’m slightly embarrassed to say that but it must have been the case.”
It is called the Principality Stadium nowadays but, in public at least, England are scornful of any supposed mystical qualities regardless of name. “You could be anywhere in the world – it doesn’t matter,” insisted the lock Joe Launchbury. “Some of the grounds in the Premiership are just as tough.”
True, Salford on a Friday night can be awkward but nowhere do the anthems cascade down with the heartfelt intensity of Cardiff when the English are in town.
The secret for the visitors will be to sidestep the special-issue Western Mail front covers and remind themselves, amid the bedlam, that 15 straight Test wins is no accident. England have fielded more dazzling teams but this lot are durable, stubborn and united. One glance at the video from 2009, when Joe Worsley played a defensive blinder in a narrow losing cause, should remind everyone Wales do not score umpteen tries in this fixture. The hosts have never managed more than two against England in Cardiff in the Six Nations and, on Welsh soil, have won the try-count only twice in eight meetings since 2000.
Last-quarter fitness also matters against England, even if Maro Itoje, Jack Clifford and Nathan Hughes splutter as a unit against Sam Warburton, Tipuric and Ross Moriarty. Wales do not have oodles of backline pace, particularly if George North is on one good leg, but they will kick their goals and keep on coming. Nor will it have escaped the hosts’ notice that the referee Jérôme Garcès took charge of the fateful 2015 World Cup pool game, in addition to the aforementioned Six Nations encounter that year.
Interestingly, no Welsh region lost at home in this year’s pool rounds of either European competition, while Ospreys remain unbeaten at home in this season’s Pro12. If England claim consecutive Test win No16 with a reshuffled pack they will feel they can prevail anywhere. Scotland against France in Paris could be a more attractive spectacle but nowhere will the breakdown and gainline battle be as remorselessly physical.
These are certainly well-matched teams on paper and the same will probably be true on grass, particularly if Wales’s “16th man” are on song. Inviting DJ “Wooden” Spoony to supply “bespoke” pre-match musical content two years ago was a ludicrous booking; no English visit to Cardiff needs bigging up when Wales scent potential victory. England are about to discover if their long-standing bridge phobia is imaginary or painfully real.
