Bank of America Securities analysts weighed in on the U.S. sports betting landscape following the opening week of National Football League and college football action, observing a complex yet broadly favorable environment for operators.
Their evaluation underscores the influence of evolving bettor preferences, aggressive promotional campaigns, and the introduction of new prediction market products on sportsbook performance.
Analysts said NFL bettors typically gravitate toward three wagers: favorites winning outright, favorites covering the spread, and overs hitting.
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When all three align, sportsbooks face significant losses because these bets are heavily parlayed. In Week 1, twelve favorites were covered, and nine favorites won outright, but only two overs were hit.
This combination likely resulted in average outcomes for the books. Standalone primetime games, especially the Buffalo Bills' comeback against the Baltimore Ravens on Sunday night, delivered favorable results for sportsbooks.
Prop betting produced mixed results, as only two of the five most popular touchdown scorer picks cashed at BetMGM.
However, DraftKings (NASDAQ:DKNG) absorbed a hit when a pre-packaged +2400 parlay, tailed by nearly 37,000 users, paid out.
DraftKings ran the most aggressive promotional campaign, offering new users $300 in bonus bets plus $200 off NFL Sunday Ticket for a $5 wager.
FanDuel followed with a $5-for-$300 promotion if the bet won, while rivals dialed back offers, BetMGM's $10-for-$150, Caesars' $50-for-a-bonus bet, and ESPN Bet's $10-for-$100.
Among prediction and daily fantasy operators, Kalshi promoted $10 after $100 in trades, while PrizePicks and Underdog offered to play $5 and get $50. On the App Store's sports chart Sunday, DraftKings and FanDuel ranked in the top five, with Bet365, PrizePicks, and Underdog landing in the top ten.
Underdog, in partnership with Crypto.com, became the first daily fantasy operator to launch sports prediction markets, now available in 16 states without legalized online sports betting.
Polymarket also relaunched in the U.S., offering markets over the weekend. Kalshi introduced a parlay product by self-certifying an event contract with the CFTC. Each leg trades as an independent liquid market, though Kalshi cannot offer same-game parlays due to probability requirements.
Analysts said sportsbooks thrived during college football's opening week. New York Weekly hold reached 11.9%, with handle up 39% year-over-year and gross gaming revenue (GGR) soaring 119%. DraftKings reported handle growth of 11% and GGR up 113%, while FanDuel posted 7% handle growth and 61% GGR growth.
Price Action: DKNG shares traded lower by 1.35% to $45.93 at last check Monday.
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