Can British Prime Minister Theresa May, who is facing headwinds within her ruling party, win parliamentary approval of an agreement with the European Union and achieve an orderly Brexit?
May has apparently reached a crucial stage in which her leadership is being put to the test.
Both sides have agreed at a technical level on a draft deal for Britain's exit from the EU. They aim to reach a final agreement on the withdrawal deal at an extraordinary EU summit on Nov. 25.
Under the draft deal, a transition period is set to run until the end of 2020 after Britain leaves the EU on March 29 next year, during which the country will maintain its current relationship with the bloc. Britain will comply with its commitment to the EU budget until 2020. The deal guarantees the rights of EU citizens in Britain and Britons in the EU.
The biggest concern, a decision on border controls between Northern Ireland, which is part of Britain, and Ireland, has for all practical purposes been postponed. To maintain freedom of movement at the border, Britain will remain in the EU Customs Union until this issue is resolved and thus accept EU regulations such as environmental standards.
During the transition period, Britain and the EU will continue talks on their future trade relationship.
This clearly indicates how difficult it is for Britain to leave the bloc, with which it built a close relationship over the decades.
May's decision to compromise is apparently aimed at avoiding a worst-case scenario in which Britain will leave the EU without reaching an agreement, which could cause confusion in the economy and society. The draft deal allows Britain to obtain the authority to restrict the flow of immigrants, as demanded by those in favor of Brexit.
Avoid disorderly exit
The problem is that May has failed to unify even her own Cabinet members. After she announced that she obtained approval of the draft deal at an extraordinary Cabinet meeting, the Brexit minister resigned, saying he "cannot support" the arrangement. Such a revolt by the minister in charge is an unusual development.
Among supporters of a Hard Brexit in the ruling Conservative Party, there has been strong dissatisfaction as it remains undetermined when Britain will leave the customs union while continuing to be bound by EU rules. Moves to call for a no-confidence motion against party leader May to unseat her have also emerged.
It remains unclear whether May can win a majority even if she pushes the draft deal through to Parliament.
Hard Brexiteers, who do not present realistic alternatives, have increased the possibility of a disorderly Brexit, which is irresponsible for lawmakers.
The EU side did not show any disarray in the negotiations, which lasted for a year and five months. In contrast to Britain, which has been mired in confusion, the EU may have strengthened its bargaining position.
If Parliament rejects the draft deal and other developments such as a snap election occur, Britain can postpone the withdrawal of next March and continue Brexit negotiations with the mutual consent of all EU member states.
To avert a no-deal Brexit and its negative impacts, the EU must be prepared for every possible situation.
(From The Yomiuri Shimbun, Nov. 17, 2018)
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