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ED CARSON

Dow Jones Rises, Techs Fall As Trump Says China 'Violated' Deal, Inflation Data Cools

The Dow Jones Industrial Average edged higher Friday, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq fell modestly. President Donald Trump accused China of violating its preliminary trade agreement with the U.S. But the Federal Reserve's favorite inflation gauge fell to a four-year low while inflation expectations cooled.

Meanwhile, Costco Wholesale, Zscaler, Ulta Beauty were early earnings movers as Tesla tested but held a buy point amid concerns over its upcoming robotaxi launch. (Click here for the latest updates on today's stock market action.)

The Dow Jones rose about 0.1%, reversing from modest losses. The S&P 500 declined 0.1% and the Nasdaq 100 dropped 0.3%, both paring losses.

The 10-year Treasury yield dipped to 4.4% after declining 5.5 basis points on Thursday to 4.42%.

Crude oil prices fell 1% Friday morning after sliding 1.5% to $60.94 a barrel in the prior session. OPEC+ reportedly is considering another production increase.

Trump Says China 'Totally Violated' Deal

Trump blasted China on his Truth Social account before the market open.

"I made a FAST DEAL with China in order to save them from what I thought was going to be a very bad situation," Trump said, adding that "everybody was happy" with the pact.

Trump later said: "The bad news is that China, perhaps not surprisingly to some, HAS TOTALLY VIOLATED ITS AGREEMENT WITH US. So much for being Mr. NICE GUY!"

Trump didn't explain how China had violated the preliminary accord.

On May 12, Trump slashed tariffs on Chinese goods from 145% to 30%, with Beijing cutting its tariffs on U.S. goods to 10% from 125%. The tariff cuts were for 90 days to allow time to reach a more-permanent deal.

On Thursday, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told Fox News that China trade talks "are a bit stalled."

Trump's China comments continued a wild week of tariff news this week.

Fed Inflation Gauge Hits Four-Year Low

The Fed's favored inflation gauge, the core Personal Consumption Expenditures index, rose 0.1% rise in April, as expected. Core PCE inflation dipped to 2.5% vs. a year earlier, also as expected, and the lowest since March 2021.

The overall PCE also edged up 0.1% vs. March with PCE inflation cooling to 2.1% vs. 2.3%. Both were in line.

Meanwhile, the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index rose slightly more than expected in May. The one-year inflation expectations gauge fell to 6.6% from the preliminary 7.3% reading. The inflation expectations gauge over five-to-10 years was revised to 4.2% from 4.6%. Those preliminary readings were long-term highs.

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Dow Jones Index Records A May Gain

The Dow Jones Industrial Average and small-cap Russell 2000 climbed 0.3% in Thursday's stock market trading. The S&P 500 index and Nasdaq composite gained 0.4%, with techs closing well off the day's highs.

So far in May, the Dow is up 3.8%, the S&P 500 has rallied 6.2% and the Nasdaq has jumped 9.9%.

Earnings Movers On Stock Market Today

Among earnings movers, Costco's profits and revenue slightly beat analyst estimates, but same-store sales missed views. Costco stock climbed 2.9% to 1,037.95, back above a 1,018 cup-with-handle buy point on a daily chart. The warehouse chain also is testing a 1039.47 cup-with-handle buy point on a weekly chart.

Zscaler earnings topped forecasts, though its revenue outlook was light. The cybersecurity stock popped nearly 9% Friday, hitting a three-year high. Zscaler stock is extended from a base cleared in late April but could be actionable from clearing a 15-month consolidation with a 259.61 buy point.

Dell Technologies fell 0.8% as earnings missed views but the personal computer, storage and server play raised its full-year profit forecast. A short-term high of 116.13 offers an aggressive entry.

Ulta Beauty stock jumped 14% Friday on strong earnings. The beauty products retailer is clearing a base going back to January, hitting a 52-week high.

Gap plunged 21% after the apparel retailer said it sees big tariff costs but doesn't plan significant price hikes. Gap did beat quarterly estimates.

Time The Market With IBD's ETF Market Strategy

Tesla Stock Tests Buy Point

Shares of Tesla edged higher after briefly testing a 354.99 early entry from a handle that's slightly too low to be proper. Tesla stock was up 5.6% this week through Thursday and 27% for the month on buzz over its robotaxi project taking place in Austin, Texas.

Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas, a long-time Tesla bull, said investors shouldn't get too excited in a note released Friday.

"As is typical for highly anticipated Tesla events, we would keep expectations well contained for the (reported) June 12th Cybercab launch event in Austin. However, we would look for a continued stream of updates for the performance and growth of the network thereafter (numbers of cars, miles, trips, etc) in the days and weeks that follow. "

Meanwhile, President Donald Trump and Elon Musk are expected to hold a press event Friday afternoon, after Musk says farewell to the Trump administration and the Department of Government Efficiency, or DOGE. Tesla stock is on IBD Leaderboard.

Read The Big Picture every day to stay in sync with the market direction and leading stocks and sectors.

Please follow Ed Carson on X/Twitter at @IBD_ECarson  for stock market updates and more.

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