We’re almost there, kids. After months of speculation, rumors, innuendo, and malarkey, we are mere hours from the start of the 2019 draft. As such, it’s time for all us evaluators and prognosticators to finish the tests, put our pencils down, and see how it all plays out.
- This is a trade-heavy mock, and there are three hypotheticals. Here, the Cardinals get the fourth and 27th overall picks for the first overall pick and stay put with Josh Rosen in the short term. The Raiders take Kyler Murray first overall, and the Cardinals get Alabama defensive tackle Quinnen Williams and Mississippi offensive tackle Greg Little. If I’m Steve Keim and Kliff Kingsbury, I’m doing handstands on my way to my cars out of the facility after that deal.
- Next, the Broncos trade with the Buccaneers to move up to the fifth overall pick to get Missouri quarterback Drew Lock, who certainly fits John Elway’s big guy/big arm paradigm. The Bucs drop to 10 and still get LSU linebacker Devin White, who could help re-define their defense.
- Then, the Seahawks look to trade down with the Rams to get more than their five overall picks in this draft. With that swag, the Rams get Florida State edge-rusher Brian Burns to solve their own pressure issues, and Seattle nabs Michigan pass-rusher Rashan Gary, who absolutely fits the Pete Carroll/John Schneider profile of athletic freaks who have not yet turned that into ultimate production just yet.
- Oh, yeah… and there’s the trade that already happened this week. The pass rush-hungry Chiefs swapped their 29th overall pick, a 2020 second-round pick, and an exchange of third-round picks in 2019 for Seattle’s former Michigan edge star, Frank Clark. With that pick, Seattle takes Maryland defensive back Darnell Savage, hoping that he can replace Earl Thomas in the deep third of their defense.
Also, four of the last eight picks are defensive backs (and very different ones), which I believe reflects the importance of those positions in the modern NFL. This would have first-round talents like Clelin Ferrell and Jeffery Simmons falling out of the first round, leading to even more riches for NFL teams on the second day of the draft.
Mock 1.0 | Mock 2.0 | Mock 3.0 | Mock 4.0
Picks 1-8 | Picks 9-16 | Picks 17-24 | Picks 25-32
1. Oakland Raiders (from Arizona Cardinals): Kyler Murray, QB, Oklahoma
The facts are these: The Raiders traded for Antonio Brown and signed former Chargers speed receiver Tyrell Williams. You don’t do that and then sit with one of the most conservative deep throwers in the draft in Derek Carr. Here, the Raiders get a guy in Murray who completed 38 passes of 20 or more air yards last season on 77 targets for 1,468 yards, 16 touchdowns, and just five interceptions. Aside from Murray’s skills as a runner, the ways in which the Raiders will need to adapt their offensive line to give him throwing lanes, and anything else you’d care to mention, Murray’s transcendent ability as an accurate deep-ball thrower makes him the ideal man for what Jon Gruden clearly wants this passing offense to be.
2. San Francisco 49ers: Nick Bosa, EDGE, Ohio State
Sending a 2020 second-round pick to the Chiefs for edge-rusher Dee Ford and having DeForest Buckner on your defensive line doesn’t preclude the need for more edge pressure. Bosa isn’t quite as fluid as his older brother, but he springs out of a four-point stance and bends the edge like no other pass-rusher in this draft class, and he’d be an epic addition to Robert Saleh’s defense.
3. New York Jets: Ed Oliver, DL, Houston
When assessing Oliver’s value to a defensive line, you have to consider that at 6’2” and 287 pounds, he played about 65% of his snaps at nose tackle last season. Ideally, he’s a one-gap 3-tech game-wrecker in the John Randle mold. New Jets defensive coordinator Gregg Williams has had his controversial moments, but as a front designer who knows how to wind up his defensive linemen and let them attack the quarterback in all kinds of different fronts, he’d be an ideal creator for the best possible situation in Oliver’s dreams.
4. Arizona Cardinals (from Oakland Raiders): Quinnen Williams, DT, Alabama
So, the Cardinals stick with Josh Rosen in this scenario. And they need a ton of offensive line help, but they can get that later, and there’s no point in reaching for a guy when there isn’t a top-five on that side of the ball. Better they go after Williams, who can anchor and define this defensive line with measurables and intangibles that bring Fletcher Cox to mind.
5. Denver Broncos (from Tampa Bay Buccaneers): Drew Lock, QB, Missouri
Another trade, and it’s John Elway moving up to get another big quarterback with a big arm. No surprise to that second part. It’s just as feasible that Denver stays put at No. 10 and gives new head coach a stud linebacker like LSU’s Devin White or Michigan’s Devin Bush, but even though Joe Flacco’s on the Broncos’ roster now, you just know that Elway is desperate to erase his quarterback misses of the past—and there’s no guarantee that Flacco won’t be a miss, as well. Lock has a lot of work to do with his mechanics and accuracy, but he has the most impressive functional velocity of any quarterback in this class, and for Elway, that’s generally enough.
6. New York Giants: Josh Allen, OLB, Kentucky
Uncle Dave Gettleman has said all kinds of weird things about the Giants’ prospects for their two picks in the first round, but two things are clear—the Giants need their quarterback of the future, and they desperately need pass-rush help. Allen certainly fits the second slot—he amassed 17 sacks, 12 quarterback hits, and 28 quarterback hurries last season—and he also has the ability to play off-the-ball linebacker. Giants defensive coordinator James Bettcher will be able to line him up in several spots, and watch him help that defense from Day 1.
7. Jacksonville Jaguars: Jawaan Taylor, OT, Florida
It’s tempting to give the Jaguars a receiver or tight end here to help Nick Foles, but when you look at the offenses Foles is best-suited to run (and the one offensive coordinator John DeFilippo will design), there’s a lot of quick, front-side stuff designed to get the ball out quickly. To that end, let’s give Foles an outstanding right-side pass protector who can also mash in the run game. Last season, Taylor allowed just one sack and 10 total pressures in 364 pass-blocking snaps, and he can blow run defenders right off the screen.
8. Detroit Lions: Byron Murphy, CB, Washington
Signing Trey Flowers to a massive free-agent contract certainly spiffed up Detroit’s defensive line, but there are still holes to fill in the secondary. Given head coach Matt Patricia’s history on New England’s defensive staff, you’ll assume he wants intelligent cornerbacks who play all kinds of coverage, bait quarterbacks into throwing where they don’t want to, and play the run like safeties. That’s an accurate description of Murphy, the most polished and pro-ready defensive back in this class.
Picks 1-8 | Picks 9-16 | Picks 17-24 | Picks 25-32
9. Buffalo Bills: D.K. Metcalf, WR, Mississippi
The Bills did some work with their receiver group in free agency, adding speedster John Brown and slot man Cole Beasley. But if they’re going to get the most out of second-year quarterback Josh Allen, whose deep arm impresses as much as his lack of accuracy confounds, they’ll need a big target who can fly by cornerbacks and win contested-catch battles downfield. Metcalf has proven able to do that, and though he’s far from developed as a route-runner, he presents similar potential to Josh Gordon to blast through defenses even though he’s far from technically refined.
10. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (from Denver Broncos): Devin White, LB, LSU
Losing Kwon Alexander to the 49ers in free agency was a hit this defense couldn’t afford. To replace the rangy linebacker, who signed a four-year deal with the 49ers, they could do a lot worse than White, the reigning Butkus Award winner who has the ability to do everything you want a modern linebacker to do. White needs to clean up the missed tackles, but other than that, he’s a plug-and-play guy for a defense in desperate need at nearly every position.
11. Cincinnati Bengals: Andre Dillard, OT, Washington State
It’s entirely feasible that the Bengals could go with Andy Dalton’s eventual replacement here—it’s hard to see new head coach Zac Taylor getting excited about a player as fundamentally limited as Dalton has proven to be. But if they don’t do that, let’s at least give Dalton the protection he needs. Dillard is a minor concern because he comes from a Mike Leach offense and he doesn’t have a ton of run-blocking reps, but he allowed just one sack, two quarterback hits, and 10 quarterback hurries in 722 pass-protection snaps in 2018.
12. Green Bay Packers: Noah Fant, TE, Iowa
Now that new head coach Matt LaFleur will give Aaron Rodgers the most expansive playbook he’s ever had (a low bar established under Mike McCarthy), let’s give Rodgers a tight end in Fant who has a knack for finding openings in all kinds of coverage inline, from the slot, and outside. Fant isn’t a plus blocker and he has too many dropped passes on his resume, but he’s also never had a quarterback like Rodgers before.
13. Miami Dolphins: Dwayne Haskins, QB, Ohio State
This could be a problem, or it could be Miami’s first real franchise quarterback since Dan Marino. If the Dolphins are able to put together an offensive line to keep Haskins protected in the pocket, they’ll benefit from a guy who can make all the throws and reads and manipulates defenses like an NFL quarterback on his second contract. If not, they’ll have to deal with a quarterback who, historically, has gone too easily for the quick outlet and missed bigger throws when under pressure.
14. Atlanta Falcons: Andreaz “Greedy” Williams, CB, LSU
The Falcons are in clear need of cornerback help if they’re to ascend to the heights Dan Quinn wants, and whether the scheme is press-man, press zone or off-coverage, there’s no cornerback in this class with a better sense of how to play it all than Williams. He’ll have to beef up a bit to become a better tackler against the run and deal with the aggressive moves of the NFL’s bigger receivers, but as a pure cover man, Williams presents an instant and considerable upgrade.
15. Washington Redskins: T.J. Hockenson, TE, Iowa
Do the Redskins trade up for a quarterback here? It’s tempting, though given Jay Gruden’s belief that he can take an average to below-average quarterback and make him great, it’s just as likely this team waits until the second or third day and invests in a developmental guy. If that’s the case, at least Gruden could get his hands on the kind of tight end that is generally mandatory in the ultimate version of his offense. Hockenson isn’t as precise a route-runner as his Iowa teammate Noah Fant, but the praise of his blocking is no hype, and he has the wherewithal to take Gruden’s complex concepts to the field in convincing fashion.
16. Carolina Panthers: Jonah Williams, OL, Alabama
The Panthers have issues at both guard and tackle, and it’s entirely possible that if Williams doesn’t make it at the NFL level as an outside blocker, he could become one of the best guards in the business. Aligning him with Trai Turner might give Carolina the bust guard duo in the league, and in the right system, Williams could also stick outside at left tackle and give the team a real presence there.
Picks 1-8 | Picks 9-16 | Picks 17-24 | Picks 25-32
17. New York Giants (from Cleveland Browns): Daniel Jones, QB, Duke
To be clear: This is not where I would take Daniel Jones. I wouldn’t touch him anywhere in the first round—his arm strength is limited, and the difference in efficiency when he’s in a clean pocket and when he’s pressured could be a career-killer. But Dave Gettleman has given Jones enough praise as the kind of quarterback who will fit the system with a quiet demeanor to have me thinking he’ll be the pick. Generally speaking, Gettleman doesn’t want his players rocking the boat—he’d rather do that himself.
18. Minnesota Vikings: Garrett Bradbury, C, North Carolina State
There is absolutely no question that the Vikings desperately need help along their offensive line—it’s only a matter of where the need is greatest, and who’s available in the first round to fill it. You could mock one of the best players at any line position to Minnesota and be entirely credible, but in this case, let’s take an NFL-reacy center in Bradbury, move current center Pat Elflein out to guard, and hopefully solve two problems with one pick.
19. Tennessee Titans: Dexter Lawrence, DL, Clemson
Titans defensive coordinator Dean Pees is one of the smartest and most diverse schematic coaches in the league, and he loves to move his linemen around like proverbial chess pieces. He already has two studs in Jurrell Casey and Harold Landry, and adding Lawrence—the 6’4”, 342-pounder who has more pure power than any other player in his draft class and can ball out everywhere from head-over nose tackle to big end—would give the Titans even more options to shut down the run and disrupt the passer.
20. Pittsburgh Steelers: Devin Bush, LB, Michigan
The Steelers need obvious help all over the back seven of their defense, and if you told me they were taking the best cornerback available, I would be especially unsurprised. But if they want the best defensive player left in this particular mock, it would be hard to pass on Bush, the undersized (5’11”, 234-pound) but rocked-up linebacker with the ability to blitz, cover, and blast through gaps to stop the run. This team really needs a tone-setter on defense, and Bush could be that right away.
21. Los Angeles Rams (from Seattle Seahawks): Brian Burns, EDGE, Florida State
The Seahawks trade down with the NFC champs to get more picks, and the Rams ostensibly solve their edge-rush issues with Burns, who had eight sacks, 10 quarterback hits, and 48 (!) quarterback hurries for the Seminoles last season. Burns doesn’t project well as a run defender right away, and he can get vaporized by power tackles, but Wade Phillips would put him on the tackle’s outside shoulder over and over and let him eat.
22. Baltimore Ravens: Marquise Brown, WR, Oklahoma
Yes, the Ravens are going with a run-heavy offense with Lamar Jackson as their quarterback, at least in the short term, but Jackson still needs receivers who know how to get open not only with pure speed, but with incredible agility and violent foot movement. Brown can do all those things, he proved it with Baker Mayfield and Kyler Murray as his quarterbacks, and he’d give Jackson all kinds of designed openings from the slot and outside.
23. Houston Texans: Cody Ford, OL, Oklahoma
The Texans need as much offensive line help as any NFL team, and they need it all over the place. Ford is an interesting potential two-fer at the next level—he has the strength and athleticism to play right or left tackle, though he’d be a developmental prospect at either position. At guard, however, Ford has shown the ability to be truly dominant, and in the short term, he’d do a lot to help solidify a front five with little clarity.
24. Oakland Raiders (from Chicago Bears): Montez Sweat, EDGE, Mississippi State
The story about Sweat’s enlarged heart has made the rounds and reportedly has some teams taking the combine superstar off their boards. The Raiders took a chance on Michigan defensive tackle Maurice Hurst in the fifth round last season despite Hurst’s own heart issues, and were rewarded with performance far above Hurst’s draft position. If Sweat falls this far, don’t be surprised if the Raiders try to replace Khalil Mark with another worthy risk pick.
Picks 1-8 | Picks 9-16 | Picks 17-24 | Picks 25-32
25. Philadelphia Eagles: Chauncey Gardner-Johnson, DB, Florida
The Eagles’ formerly stout secondary has seen attrition take hold, and though first-year cornerback Avonte Maddox was a pleasant surprise last season, more needs to be done. Malcolm Jenkins has been an essential part of that secondary because he’s able to play everywhere from outside to the slot to safety, and Gardner-Johnson, perhaps the most versatile defensive back in this class, has many of the same attributes.
26. Indianapolis Colts: Christian Wilkins, DT, Clemson
Right now, the Colts have an interior defensive line rotation of the criminally underrated Denico Autry, and a bunch of role-players. General manager Chris Ballard will undoubtedly do something about that in the draft, and it’s hard to imagine a better option both on and off the field than Wilkins, who projects best as a one-gap three-tech defensive tackle who can knife through blockers to stop the run—only Alabama’s Quinnen Williams had a higher run-stop rate among draftable defensive tackles than Wilkins in 2018, who had 30 run stops in 252 run defense snaps. Wilkins also has potential as a pass-rusher, but he’ll be a plus run-stopper right away.
27. Arizona Cardinals (from Oakland Raiders): Greg Little, OT, Mississippi
With the second pick in their trade haul with the Raiders, Arizona gets the franchise left tackle they desperately need. One of Josh Rosen’s many issues in a lost offense in 2018 was that he was pressured on 40.4% pf his snaps, and Little—who isn’t the most mobile of the tackles in the 2019 class, but seems to do everything right—would be a major upgrade over projected starter D.J. Humphries. Kliff Kingsbury’s offense doesn’t work without backside protection, and Little provides that on a right-now basis.
28. Los Angeles Chargers: Dalton Risner, OL, Kansas State
It’s not yet clear whether Risner will best project as an offensive tackle or guard at the next level—some teams will look at his short-area mobility and overall athletic limitations and think he’d be best off moving better inside. Others may see the next Andrew Whitworth in Risner, a tough, smart blocker who has overcome his limitations with an understanding of angles and leverage and other adaptive strategies. Regardless of his NFL position, Risner would help keep Philip Rivers upright—in his college career, he allowed just one sack, five quarterback hits and 23 quarterback hurries in 1,397 pass-blocking snaps.
29. Seattle Seahawks (from Kansas City Chiefs): Darnell Savage, DB, Maryland
If the Seahawks want to fix a defense that has regressed transitionally since the Legion of Boom heyday, they need to hit homers at two positions—pass-rusher and safety. Savage ranked 43rd in my top 50 draft prospects, but the more I watch him, the more I think I should have given him a first-round grade. Savage is undersized as a traditional safety at 5’11” and 198 pounds, but he’s outstanding in coverage, he covers huge expanses of ground in a big hurry, and he has no issue tackling ferociously when he gets to his target. He’s not Earl Thomas, but there are enough similarities to make this an interesting fit.
30. Green Bay Packers (from New Orleans Saints): Johnathan Abram, S, Mississippi State
The Packers did a lot to improve their defense in free agency, signing linebacker Preston Smith, defensive lineman Za’Darius Smith, and safety Adrian Amos. They still have needs at linebacker and hybrid safety, and through Abram is a safety in positional name, he projects better as a safety/linebacker guided missile in the Deone Bucannon mold. He has especially electric potential as a blitzer—last season, he blitzed on 12.4% of his snaps last season, getting pressure on 37.3% of them.
31. Seattle Seahawks (from Los Angeles Rams): Rashan Gary, DL, Michigan
The Seahawks succeeded when they took one athletic marvel out of Michigan to rush the passer in Clark, so why not go back to the well? There are absolutely questions about Gary’s college production versus his physical potential, but a lot of that can be ironed out with coaching—especially hand technique. The Seahawks under Pete Carroll have a long history of getting the best out of developmental pass-rushers—one of the reasons they were comfortable letting Clark go—and if they can get the most out of Gary, that’s a scary thought for the quarterbacks of the NFC West.
32. New England Patriots: Deionte Thompson, S, Alabama
Tight end and receiver are obvious needs for the champs, but there’s also a long-term need in the back end of their defense to keep up the multiple safety responsibilities that have been estimably covered by Devin McCourty and Duron Harmon. What Bill Belichick doesn’t have right now is a young force multipler who can patrol the deep third of a defense, close down on targets from the boundary to the seam to the post, and make those deep completions go away. Thompson is one of the smartest and rangiest safeties in this class, and under the Patriots’ tutelage, he could be the lockdown guy Bill Belichick desires over the next half-decade.
