If Bill Belichick seemed terse even for him at the recent owner’s meetings, it might be because he knew that his offense was losing its most unique and irreplaceable player in Rob Gronkowski, who announced his retirement this week. Finding a solution for Gronk’s absence will be tough—he was the best combination of receiving and blocking at his position in NFL history—but if anyone can pull it off, we know it’s Belichick, even if it makes him grumpy in the short term.
In this mock draft, we have the Patriots moving up from the 32nd overall spot to nab perhaps the best receiving tight end in this draft class. We also have the Raiders making every effort to overcome their most grievous deficiency in the 2018 season, and the Cardinals getting their once-and-for-all franchise quarterback.
1. Arizona Cardinals: Kyler Murray, QB, Oklahoma
Last year, Kliff Kingsbury couldn’t say enough about Kyler Murray. At the owner’s meetings this week, Kliff Kingsbury couldn’t cay enough about Kyler Murray. This is not a smokescreen, kids. Murray is a perfect fit in Kingsbury’s offense, the Cardinals can offload Josh Rosen for a high pick (probably not a first), and Murray’s only problem will be playing behind an offensive line that may be worse than the one he had at Oklahoma.
2. San Francisco 49ers: Quinnen Williams, DT, Alabama
Trading a second-round pick to the Chiefs for premier edge-rusher Dee Ford might change the 49ers’ board a bit, and the momentum may be shifting in the building to a defensive tackle in Williams who can play the run and pass equally well, is remarkably consistent snap to snap. While Williams doesn’t stand up to power as well as one might like, he’d be a perfect fit in Robert Saleh’s defense.
3. New York Jets: Nick Bosa, EDGE, Ohio State
The Jets were hoping that Anthony Barr would solve their edge-rushing issues, but Barr decided to stay in Minnesota. The good news for this franchise is that there’s a ton of talent at the position up and down this draft class, and Bosa would certainly perk things up against enemy quarterbacks.
4. Oakland Raiders: Josh Allen, EDGE, Kentucky
The Raiders were quite busy in free agency, but they weren’t able to augment a defense that managed just 13 sacks last season. Allen wouldn’t quite fill the Khalil Mack crater right off the bat, but like Mack, he has the potential to be a dynamic edge-rusher and run-stopper, and he brings coverage skills as well.
5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Devin White, LB, LSU
Outside of Kyler Murray to whoever has the first overall pick, mocking White to the Bucs at five has probably been the most common slotting, and there are two reasons for that. Losing Kwon Alexander in free agency to the 49ers gives Tampa Bay a major deficiency when it comes to athletic three-down linebackers, and White fills that gap quickly and easily.
6. New York Giants: Ed Oliver, DL, Houston
Are the Giants committed to Eli Manning beyond 2019? That, we do not know. Would it be wise for the Giants to take the best player available regardless of positional need? Absolutely, especially when you have as many positional needs as the Giants do. We don’t know what Oliver’s capable of as a true three-tech tackle since he played nose tackle on far too many of Houston’s snaps last season, and he may have more untapped athletic potential than anyone else in this draft class.
7. Jacksonville Jaguars: D.K. Metcalf, WR, Ole Miss
If Oliver doesn’t have more untapped athletic potential than anyone else in this draft class, it may be because Metcalf does. He blew up the combine with raw skills, and though he didn’t run a full route tree in college, he’s more than the sum of his parts to date. The Jaguars could use him not only as a deep threat, but also as a weapon against zone coverage on short to intermediate stuff.
8. Detroit Lions: Montez Sweat, EDGE, Mississippi State
Yes, the Lions paid big bucks for Trey Flowers in free agency, but that doesn’t preclude the need for more effectiveness off the edge, especially if Lions head coach and former Patriots defensive coordinator Matt Patricia uses Flowers as a pass-rushing tackle at times. Sweat is ridiculously fast and powerful off the edge, and he also has potential to kick inside.
9. Buffalo Bills: Christian Wilkins, DT, Clemson
The Bills grabbed some of the best bargains in the free agency period, but there’s still a collective need along their defensive line. They could just as easily go with an edge-rusher here, and this is higher than you’ll usually see Wilkins mocked, but he’s as clean on and off the field as anyone in this class, and would fortify Buffalo’s defense as a true interior game-wrecker.
10. Denver Broncos: Cody Ford, OL, Oklahoma
The need at quarterback is obvious here in the long term, but let’s say that John Elway and his crew don’t like any of the remaining quarterbacks enough to take one 10th overall. Dwayne Haskins might not be mobile enough for Denver’s offense, and guys like Drew Lock and Daniel Jones are projects to a point. If that’s the case, a Broncos offensive line that has been problematic for a long time would be helped by Ford, an athletic marvel with the potential to play tackle or guard at a very high level.
11. Cincinnati Bengals: Devin Bush, LB, Michigan
Offensive line is still a graphic need here, but the more people watch Bush, the less division there seems to be between the two Devins in terms of athleticism and effect on the field, and that’s something the Bengals could very much use at linebacker.
12. Green Bay Packers: T.J. Hockenson, TE, Iowa
Aaron Rodgers finally managed to escape the mess that was Mike McCarthy’s playbook, so as a reward, let’s give him the most complete tight end in this class to help expand his passing game as much as new head coach Matt LaFleur. Hockenson is a dynamic blocker, but don’t let that scare you off his promise as a multi-route receiver.
13. Miami Dolphins: Dwayne Haskins, QB, Ohio State
The best thing about Haskins is that he reads and reacts to defenses with the acumen of an NFL veteran on his second contract. The worst thing about Haskins, at least at this point, is that his lack of functional mobility (i.e., throwing on the run and when he’s flushed out of the pocket) limits his viability in certain offenses. New Dolphins offensive coordinator Chad O’Shea spent the last 10 seasons as the Patriots’ receivers coach, so he’s used to working with a quarterback who doesn’t run around a lot and still manages all-time results. Not that Haskins is the next Tom Brady, obviously, but the fit is reasonable here.
14. Atlanta Falcons: Andraez “Greedy” Williams, CB, LSU
The Falcons need help along the offensive and defensive lines, but cornerback play was a sneaky issue for them last season, and that isn’t going to resolve itself. Williams seems to be pegged by some analysts as a pure press-man cornerback, and while that’s where he would thrive right away, he does have the skill to adapt to the press- and off-zone concepts Atlanta prefers, and he’d be a big boost to a secondary that was toasted too often in 2018.
15. Washington: Drew Lock, QB, Missouri
Obviously, the Redskins’ quarterback situation is in flux. We don’t know what Alex Smith’s future looks like, and to say that a quarterback combination of Case Keenum and Colt McCoy is underwhelming is to undersell the word. Both are journeymen at best, and even if Smith does come back in 2020 from his injuries, he’s pushing the wrong side of his thirties at that point. Lock would be an excellent bridge quarterback for head coach Jay Gruden—he’s got the best combination of arm talent and mobility of anyone in this class not named Kyler Murray, and his occasional head-scratching decisions and mechanical flaws can be dealt with over time.
16. Carolina Panthers: Jonah Williams, OT, Alabama
Like a lot of teams, the Panthers could easily go with an edge-rusher in the first round to deal with a certain need. But their need on the offensive line may be greater, and Williams is a plug-and-play guy as a run- and pass-blocker. His technical proficiency and consistency have created the kind of edge protector the Panthers need.
17. New York Giants: Daniel Jones, QB, Duke
So, maybe here’s where the Giants get their next franchise quarterback—with the first-round pick they got in the Odell Beckham, Jr., trade. To be clear, I wouldn’t take Jones this high; I think he’s inherently limited from an arm strength perspective, and that’s going to round off what any offense can do with him. But he’s got a shot to develop under Eli Manning for a year or so and then be the captain of an offense that will feature Saquon Barkley as its real superstar.
18. Minnesota Vikings: Andre Dillard, OT, Washington State
Whatever the Vikings do on offense with Kirk Cousins—and they’re always going to find limitations in that—their passing offense will be far more limited if Cousins doesn’t have enough protection to stay on script. Dillard needs to develop power as a run-blocker, but as a blindside protector, he has everything you want—from the quickness to snap and adjust to edge-rushers, to the intelligence and fast-twitch reflexes to take on games and stunts.
19. New England Patriots (from Tennessee Titans): Noah Fant, TE, Iowa
So, here is perhaps the next Gronk. In this hypothetical, the Patriots trade up with the Titans and grab Fant, who may be the best pass-catching tight end in his class, and he’ll look a lot more like that when he’s not in Iowa’s basic offense. Fant isn’t in Gronk’s class as a blocker (who is, really), but he’ll take away a lot of the sting of Gronk’s retirement on everything from deep seam routes and posts to quick and intermediate outs to the boundary. Next stop for the Patriots: More receivers.
20. Pittsburgh Steelers: Byron Murphy, CB, Washington
Pittsburgh’s defense took an enormous step back last season, and while some of that had to do with Ryan Shazier’s absence (why Pittsburgh should also consider an athletic linebacker early in the draft), it was also a scheme that didn’t play well with a host of limited defensive backs. If the Steelers are to continue to play a heavy Cover-zone scheme, they might as well get a guy who plays it at a high level. That’s Murphy, who plays with a technical refinement that transcends most college players at his position.
21. Seattle Seahawks: Deionte Thompson, FS, Alabama
Another team in need of a highly-picked edge-rusher, though Seattle did retain Frank Clark with the franchise tag. What the Seahawks had in Earl Thomas, though, is far less replaceable. Now that Thomas is in Baltimore’s secondary, it’s mandatory that Pete Carroll has a safety who can patrol the entire deep third of the defense, and from boundary to boundary. Thompson is a true single-high defender with the range and athleticism to help lead the next iteration of the Legion of Boom.
22. Baltimore Ravens: Brian Burns, EDGE, Florida State
With Za’Darius Smith, Terrell Suggs, and C.J. Mosley all out the door, Baltimore defensive coordinator Don Martindale has his work cut out for him in the front seven. Adding Burns would give the Ravens a lightning-fast asset on the edge, and over time, Burns’ run defense can be ironed out.
23. Houston Texans: Jawaan Taylor, OT, Florida
Last season, the Texans had one of the worst pass-blocking offensive lines in the NFL. Adding Matt Kalil to that unit is like throwing gasoline on a fire in the wrong direction, and if Deshaun Watson is to survive the 2019 season, reinforcements will be needed. Taylor won’t solve all those problems, but he projects nicely as a mashing right tackle or top-flight guard right away.
24. Oakland Raiders (from Chicago Bears): Jeffery Simmons, DT, Mississippi State
Simmons comes into the draft with what most would say is top-10 talent, but his 2016 arrest and subsequent video showing him punching a woman, not to mention the torn ACL he suffered in an offseason workout, will have him shooting down a lot of boards. He’ll likely land somewhere in the lower quarter of the first round, and why not with a Raiders team that has no issue taking risks? Putting Simmons next to Maurice Hurst, who saw his own draft stock plummet last year due to a heart condition, could define Oakland’s defense for the next half-decade if everything works out.
25. Philadelphia Eagles: Dexter Lawrence, DL, Clemson
Eagles defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz is one of the more aggressive defensive line schemers in the league, and he understands the value of linemen who can win from every gap. That’s an apt description of Lawrence, the 6’4”, 342-pound behemoth who can line up anywhere from head-over nose tackle to end. Adding his skill set to what Fletcher Cox does would be borderline illegal.
26. Indianapolis Colts: Clelin Ferrell, EDGE, Clemson
Getting Justin Houston as a short-term fix for the pass rush was a great move by Colts general manager Chris Ballard, but there’s still a need for a longer-term solution at the edge. Ferrell isn’t the flashiest pass-rusher in this class, but he’s very technically proficient, and he adds credible run defense right away.
27. Oakland Raiders (from Dallas Cowboys): Rashan Gary, DL, Michigan
To finish off Oakland’s haul of three first-round picks, let’s add… another defensive lineman? Well, yes.
Josh Allen would be a star right away, Jeffery Simmons’ timetable back from ACL surgery is not yet known, and when you put up 13 sacks as a team in an entire season, you need all the help you can get. Gary has top-10 athletic skills, but he frustrated as much as he impressed because he’s not yet as advanced with his rush moves as he needs to be. Perhaps a developmental rush linebacker in the short term, Gary could be the best edge man in this class if he can put it all together.
28. Los Angeles Chargers: Jerry Tillery, DT, Notre Dame
The Chargers are one of the few NFL teams without an edge-rush need—when you have Melvin Ingram and Joey Bosa, it’s safe to say you’re all set there. The defensive tackle rotation is not nearly as defined, which would make Tillery a great addition. An attacking tackle with tremendous leverage off the snap, Tillery has the raw skills to transcend his lack of top-shelf pass-rush moves in certain situations, and he could hit an entirely different level if he adds those to his palette.
29. Kansas City Chiefs: Chauncey Gardner-Johnson, DB, Florida
Yes, the Chiefs need all kinds of help with their pass rush, but they also must augment a secondary that is still several steps away from Super Bowl level. Grabbing Tyrann Mathieu in free agency made a lot of sense, but Mathieu isn’t a default deep safety—he can (and should) play all over the place. Gardner-Johnson would bring safety range and cornerback skills, giving new defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo still more versatility in his secondary.
30. Green Bay Packers (from New Orleans Saints): N’Keal Harry, WR, Arizona State
Since the Packers went all out on defense in free agency by adding pass-rushers Za’Darius Smith and Preston Smith, not to mention safety Adrian Amos, let’s add to the T.J. Hockenson pick and give Aaron Rodgers another target. Harry isn’t the fastest receiver in this bunch, but he’s fast enough, and his ability to win in contested catch situations would help Aaron Rodgers immensely, and brings both Keenan Allen and later-years Anquan Boldin to mind.
31. Los Angeles Rams: Garrett Bradbury, C, North Carolina State
The Rams moved on from center John Sullivan and left guard Rodger Saffold after their Super Bowl defeat, and if they want to get back to that big game, interior protection for Jared Goff is a must. Bradbury isn’t an old-school power center, but his near-flawless fundamentals, second-level speed and understanding of schematic concepts would allow Sean McVay to not only unleash his passing concepts, but also to extract the most out of his run game.
32. Tennessee Titans: (From New England Patriots): Irv Smith, Jr., TE, Alabama
The Titans traded down in this mock so that the Patriots could head up to 19 and grab Noah Fant, but this is a team also in need of a tight end—Delanie Walker was once the fulcrum of the passing game, and someone else needs to do that. Smith doesn’t explode off the screen when you’re watching his tape, but he shows the potential to be a top-level blocker, and he can already excel everywhere from an in-line role to a slot designation where he can find openings through the seam and boundary.
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