Now that free agency is mostly in the bag, it’s time for personnel staffs for all 32 teams to turn their attention to the draft, and try to fill any remaining holes that way. Two teams going in different directions might just make trades ahead of the draft to augment their efforts at the game’s most important position.
As I pointed out yesterday, the Raiders just spent nearly $100 million in contract money for Antonio Brown and Tyrell Williams, two of the NFL’s best speed receivers. But they have a quarterback in Derek Carr who struggles to maintain consistently on deep throws. Oklahoma’s Kyler Murray is the most effective deep thrower in the draft, and he has a ton of other attributes. The Giants are… well, we don’t really know what the heck general manager Dave Gettleman is up to, but we do know that he’ll have to replace Eli Manning sooner than later. Preferably sooner.
To that end, in this mock draft, we have Oakland and the Giants making trades up to the first and second overall spots, where they select Murray and Ohio State’s Dwayne Haskins.
The mechanics look like this: The Raiders trade up to get the first overall pick, giving up the fourth and 27th overall picks to the Arizona Cardinals to do so. Then, the Giants trade up for the second overall pick, giving the 49ers the sixth and 17th picks in return. This keeps Josh Rosen in Arizona for one more season, but getting two first-rounders is too attractive to a Cardinals team in need of an overall rebuild. Similarly, the 49ers would be very happy to back out of the second overall slot and get two reasonably high picks in return. They have no quarterback issues as long as Jimmy Garoppolo returns from his torn ACL as he was before.
So, if this all happens, what do the Raiders do with Derek Carr? They could offload him to a QB-needy team like Miami, or keep him for a year and hope the Alex Smith/Patrick Mahomes plan repeats itself. Carr is going into the third year of the five year, $125.025 million extension he signed in 2017, he’s got a $22.5 million cap hit this year that the team can absorb even after all their deals, and he has no guaranteed salary and relatively painless dead cap hits starting in 2020. Similarly, the Giants could go all in on Eli Manning for one more year, ask him to mentor Haskins, and cut loose after that. Although, Manning has a $23.2 million cap hit this year and just $6.2 million in dead cap if he’s released, and the Giants are in rebuilding mode whether Gettleman thinks so or not, so…
In any case, here’s how one first-round draft might look with those two moves made.
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1. Oakland Raiders (from Arizona Cardinals): Kyler Murray, QB, Oklahoma
This is a slam-dunk pick for the Raiders, and they’re still left with another first-round pick after the trade. Now, they have Murray dropping bombs to Brown and Williams, running all over the place, and like his paradigm predecessor Russell Wilson did for so many years, transcending Tom Cable’s horrid offensive lines with his own rare athletic gifts.
2. New York Giants (from San Francisco 49ers): Dwayne Haskins, QB, Ohio State
And to those apoplectic Giants fans about to tell me off because, “THERE’s NO WAY DAVE GETTLEMAN WOULD TRADE UP FOR A QUARTERACK WITH ELI ON THE ROSTER, U IDIOT,” remember that you don’t know what Uncle Dave has up his sleeve. I don’t know what Uncle Dave has up his sleeve. Half the time, I’m not sure even Uncle Dave knows what he has up his sleeve. Anything is in play, in a slightly scary sense.
3. New York Jets: Quinnen Williams, DT, Alabama
With the Raiders and Giants dueling for franchise quarterbacks in this hypothetical scenario, the Jets can just sit there and wait for Williams, the guy many consider to be the best overall player in this draft class, to fall into the franchise’s lap. This after signing Le’Veon Bell to a very team-friendly deal, and picking up C.J. Mosley, Kelechi Osemele, and Jamison Crowder in their free-agency haul? That might be enough to give general manager Mike Maccagnan a reprieve, for better or worse.
4. Arizona Cardinals (from Oakland Raiders): Nick Bosa, EDGE, Ohio State
The Cardinals signed longtime end Terrell Suggs to a one-year, $7 million deal to rush the passer opposite Chandler Jones, but a more long-term bookend is a need. If general manager Steve Keim and head coach Kliff Kingsbury can swoop in and get Bosa, the consensus most complete pass-rusher in this class, odds are they’d be pretty happy about that.
5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Josh Allen, EDGE, Kentucky
The Bucs did add Deone Bucannon and Breshad Perriman to their roster in free-agency, but no reinforcements for a defense that saw Jason Pierre-Paul lead the team with 46 pressures. Allen would add a force edge presence to a defense in need of reinforcements from front to back.
6. San Francisco 49ers (from New York Giants): Andraez “Greedy” Williams, CB, LSU
With the 49ers moving down to 6 and 17 in the hypothetical Giants trade, it’s an opportunity for GM John Lynch and head coach Kyle Shanahan to add even more talent to a free-agency haul that included Kwon Alexander, Dee Ford (via trade), and Tevin Coleman. There’s still a definite need for a top-end lockdown cornerback in Robert Saleh’s defense, and Williams fits the profile perfectly as a taller defender who excels in press coverage.
7. Jacksonville Jaguars: Andre Dillard, OT, Washington State
The Jaguars signed Nick Foles and jettisoned Blake Bortles in hope that they’ve finally got a quarterback who can take advantage of their potentially great defense and above-average run game. Now, it’s time to give Foles his optimal blind side protector. Dillard allowed just one sack and 15 total pressures in 722 pass-blocking snaps last season for the Cougars, and he has the athleticism to be a plus run-blocker over time.
8. Detroit Lions: Montez Sweat, EDGE, Mississippi State
Detroit signed former Patriots lineman Trey Flowers to a five-year, $90 million deal with $40 million guaranteed, but that doesn’t end the team’s need for pass rushers, and Sweat is more than a combine superstar. An outstanding run defender with 48 total pass pressures in 2018, Sweat, like Flowers, has the ability to lead from the edge and jump inside, giving Matt Patricia’s defensive line a ridiculous degree of flexibility.
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9. Buffalo Bills: Ed Oliver, DL, Houston
To best augment his defensive line, Bills defensive coordinator Leslie Frazier needs a three-tech defensive tackle who can wreak havoc on an every-down basis as Kyle Williams once did. Oliver, who played out of position a lot as a nose tackle in three- and four-man fronts, has yet to reach his potential, but he has a rare combination of off-the-snap speed and power once he gets going. All Frazier needs to do here is line Oliver up between the guard and the tackle, stand back, and watch the explosions.
10. Denver Broncos: D.K. Metcalf, WR, Mississippi
When analysts talk about Metcalf’s route-running beyond go routes and simple slants and comebacks, it’s often mentioned how limited his route palette is. But here’s a stat that transcends all that—per Sports Info Solutions, Metcalf had a Positive Play Ratio of 100% in zone coverage. The tape backs this up; when he’s put in a position to land in zone pockets, Metcalf becomes nearly impossible to cover with his size and ability to make contested catches. The Broncos, who are bridging their quarterback situation with Joe Flacco, can use all the receiver help they can get.
11. Cincinnati Bengals: Devin White, LB, LSU
Given his athleticism and the need NFL teams have for every-down linebackers, White could go as high as fifth overall to Tampa Bay. If he drops to Cincinnati’s spot, it would be a tough miss for a Bengals squad in need of athletic flexibility at the position.
12. Green Bay Packers: Noah Fant, TE, Iowa
The Packers went all in with three excellent defensive free agents—safety Adrian Amos, and pass-rushers Za’Darius Smith and Preston Smith. Now, they need to buck up their passing game, giving Aaron Rodgers a bit more help. Fant caught just 39 passes for 519 yards in Iowa’s conservative offense last season, but he also came away with seven touchdowns, and his tape shows a smooth mover with a gift for getting open downfield and in the red zone.
13. Miami Dolphins: Drew Lock, QB, Missouri
With Teddy Bridgewater spurning the Dolphins to stay as a backup with the Saints, and Ryan Tannehill on the block, it’s clear that Miami is in a quarterback crisis of their own creation. To solve this issue over time, the Dolphins could take Lock here, get one of the best deep arms and most effectively mobile quarterbacks in this class, and deal with his mechanical and accuracy issues over time.
14. Atlanta Falcons: Byron Murphy, CB, Washington
Injuries affected Atlanta’s defense, but ineffectiveness at the cornerback position was a hidden flaw, as well. The Falcons got two new guards in Jamon Brown and James Carpenter, but outside of tagging Grady Jarrett, they didn’t do much to help their defense out. So, taking Murphy here would be a great move. An all-around excellent player, Murphy allowed half his targets to be completed last year and had an opponent quarterback rating of 54.5. He’d be an ideal fit in Atlanta’s Cover-1 and Cover-3 schemes.
15. Washington Redskins: Daniel Jones, QB, Duke
Yes, Jay Gruden now has Case Keenum for a while via trade. But does anyone believe that Keenum is the long-term answer, especially if Alex Smith’s injuries prevent him from playing in 2019 and beyond? Gruden tends to prefer smart quarterbacks who have limited physical upsides and can grasp his offense, and Jones, though unspectacular, fits all three requirements.
16. Carolina Panthers: Clelin Ferrell, EDGE, Clemson
With Julius Peppers retiring, there isn’t much to say about Carolina’s edge rush outside of Mario Addison. That needs to change very soon if the Panthers are to compete in the NFC South. With 13 sacks, 11 quarterback hits, and 32 quarterback hurries in 324 pass-rushing snaps last season (per Pro Football Focus), Ferrell has the ability to double Addison’s efforts and get this defensive line back on track.
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17. San Francisco 49ers (from New York Giants): Marquise Brown, WR, Oklahoma
Goodness knows the 49ers got some great values on offense in free agency—the Tevin Coleman deal may go down as the steal of the 2019 league year. But there’s still a need for game-changing receivers on Kyle Shanahan’s roster, and Brown certainly qualifies. Brown, who was Baker Mayfield’s and then Kyler Murray’s main deep target at Oklahoma until he was injured in the Big 12 championship game, has the electric speed and ability to win downfield that could provide the final piece to San Francisco’s rebuilt offense.
18. Minnesota Vikings: Jonah Williams, OT, Alabama
Minnesota welcomed Anthony Barr back to the fold, and hopefully they’ll let him rush the passer more. But there were no real fixes in free agency for an offensive line that remains the team’s primary obstacle, and Kirk Cousins is going to keep hitting his head on his own ceiling until that changes. Williams would be an ideal fit. An outstanding run-blocker with top-notch pass-blocking potential, Williams has the attitude required in an offense where the run is as important as the pass, and the quarterback needs all the help he can get.
19. Tennessee Titans: T.J. Hockenson, TE, Iowa
Stealing Adam Humphries away from the Patriots in free agency looks like a sneaky-good move for the Titans, but this is a team whose offense works best with a top-shelf tight end. That was the case when Delanie Walker was healthy, and now, there’s a need for a future plan. Like Fant, Hockenson didn’t impress statistically with the Hawkeyes, but his tape shows that he’s the best combination of old-school blocking and new-school receiving at his position in this class.
20. Pittsburgh Steelers: Devin Bush, LB, Michigan
Antonio Brown is gone. Le’Veon Bell is gone. And still, the most sobering personnel issue for the Steelers is that they don’t have anyone to replace Ryan Shazier’s speed and flexibility at the linebacker position. It’s easy to do an [INSERT SPEED RECEIVER HERE] macro with the 20th overall pick, but replacing Brown isn’t done overnight, and the ways in which Bush could shore up a linebacker corps in desperate need makes him (or someone like him) the more important positional selection.
21. Seattle Seahawks: Deionte Thompson, FS, Alabama
Pete Carroll will no doubt cover the loss of Earl Thomas in free agency as an obstacle to overcome, but it’s more than that—without a true center-field ranger like Thomas, Carroll’s defense doesn’t really work. And that’s why the Seahawks should take the best deep safety on the board here. Thompson has the ability to post up on the deep third, he’s a better tackler than his frame might indicate, and though he’s not in Thomas’ league, he would do a lot to reverse what Thomas’ absence will do to Carroll’s team.
22. Baltimore Ravens: Rashan Gary, DL, Michigan
With Za’Darius Smith AND Terrell Suggs out the door via free agency, it’s clear that the Ravens need to rebuild their defensive line. A plus run-stopper with excellent pass-rush potential both inside and outside, Gary would be more of a replacement for Smith than for Suggs, but new GM Eric DeCosta has to start somewhere.
23. Houston Texans: Cody Ford, OL, Oklahoma
Having lost a good part of their secondary in free agency and trying to stop the bleeding with Tashaun Gipson and Bradley Roby, the Texans still need to address an offensive line that ranks among the NFL’s worst. Ford would be an interesting option here—an athletic freak who could eventually become one of the top tackles in the game, he could kick inside to guard to start, or learn his lessons outside.
24. Oakland Raiders (from Chicago Bears): Deandre Baker, CB, Georgia
Pairing Lamarcus Joyner with Karl Joseph gives Oakland a formidable safety duo, but the cornerback position is still undefined. At 5’11” and 193 pounds, Baker won’t fit the size requirements some teams have for the position, but he’s an aggressive press cover man with the ability to trail receivers all over the field.
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25. Philadelphia Eagles: Chauncey Gardner-Johnson, DB, Florida
The Eagles lost Michael Bennett and added Malik Jackson in free agency. That’s a good wash there, but the secondary is still an issue. Gardner-Johnson would be an ideal candidate for Philly’s defense as a move safety, slot defender, and occasional cornerback. As Malcolm Jenkins has established, such a player is quite valuable.
26. Indianapolis Colts: Brian Burns, EDGE, Florida State
The Colts have Jabaal Sheard through the 2019 season for a good price, but there is a clear and desperate need for defensive coordinator Matt Eberflus to give Sheard a reliable pass-rushing bookend. Burns put up 48 total pressures and 32 stops for the Seminoles last season, and his speed around the edge would be quite valuable in Eberflus’ four-man and hybrid fronts.
27. Arizona Cardinals (from Oakland Raiders): Greg Little, OT, Mississippi
We’re not sure what the Cardinals are planning to do with Josh Rosen ling term, but we do know that until this team improves its offensive line, whoever’s taking snaps is living on borrowed time. Getting Marcus Gilbert from the Steelers for a sixth-round pick was a nice band-aid, but more needs to be done. Little is an athletic and flexible left tackle prospect who could fit well in Kliff Kingsbury’s offense.
28. Los Angeles Chargers: Jawaan Taylor, OT, Florida
Like the Cardinals, the Chargers need help along their offensive line, and Taylor could be a plug-and-play guy at tackle or guard.
29. Kansas City Chiefs: Jaylon Ferguson, EDGE, Louisiana Tech
The Chiefs traded Dee Ford and released Justin Houston, which gives new defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo quite a bit less horsepower for his NASCAR fronts. Alex Okafor is a good rotational fill-in, but this defense won’t go far without true game-changing pass-rushers. Ferguson would be an excellent addition—he’s a technically proficient defender with strength and speed, and he leaves college as the FBS record-holder with 45 career sacks.
30. Green Bay Packers (from New Orleans Saints): Parris Campbell, WR, Ohio State
The Randall Cobb experiment worked for a while, when the speedy receiver became a gadget player of sorts, lining up all over the field and making Mike McCarthy’s offense a little more multiple. Now, let’s give new head coach and offensive play designer Matt LaFleur another player who can upset defenses with speed and versatility. Campbell’s 4.31 speed translates just fine to the field, where he can kill coverage on everything from dinky swing passes to 40-yard fade routes.
31. Los Angeles Rams: Christian Wilkins, DT, Clemson
With Ndamukong Suh out to market and Michael Brockers recovering from a torn MCL, it may be time for the Rams to give Aaron Donald a new buddy. If circumstances allow Wilkins to drop this far on the board, one can imagine general manager Les Snead rushing to the podium to turn in a card with his name on it. He’d be a prefect fit in Wade Phillips’ attack fronts, and Wilkins is as clean off the field as they come.
32. New England Patriots: Dexter Lawrence, DL, Clemson
If there’s one thing Bill Belichick loves more than wining Super Bowls and giving 20-minute answers to special teams questions in press conferences, it’s acquiring defensive linemen who can move around and switch from one-gap to two-gap concepts. Lawrence, who has shown the ability to excel everywhere from nose to end at 6’4” and 340 pounds, could give the Patriots an interior presence they haven’t had since Vince Wilfork’s prime.
