With the scouting combine a week away, it’s time to turn our attention from the end of the 2018 season and focus in on the draft for a blip of time before free agency takes over. This is the first of several mocks drafts I’ll be doing between now and May–there are no trades in this one, and combine performances obviously aren’t a factor yet, so there is a big board aspect to this one. This is more about what I think teams will do as opposed to what I would do, with an equal nod to need and best player available.
1. Arizona Cardinals: Nick Bosa, EDGE, Ohio State
The Cardinals have many needs, most notably along the offensive line. But Bosa is too complete a prospect to avoid here, especially for a team that had little pass rush outside of Chandler Jones’ efforts. Though Bosa shut his 2018 season down early after a core muscle injury, he still put up four sacks and six tackles for loss in just three games, and there’s the matter of his 2017 campaign, when he blew up every offensive lineman he faced, finishing with 8.5 sacks, 16 tackles for loss, and 66 total pressures. At 6’4” and 263 pounds, Bosa brings older brother Joey to mind as a complete pass-rusher, with the speed off the snap, strength, agility, and comprehensive hand moves to transition seamlessly to the rigors of the NFL.
2. San Francisco 49ers: Ed Oliver, DL, Houston
The 49ers have DeForest Buckner and a cavalcade of situational defensive linemen of varying quality, but outside of Buckner, there isn’t a transcendent guy capable of demolishing an offensive line with speed and power. Oliver makes a ton of sense here—there are few interior defensive linemen over the last decade with his acceleration off the snap, freakish athleticism, and ability to bull through the pocket. There are times when Oliver plays too fast and will run himself right out of the play, but when he’s on, the 6’3”, 292-pound Houston alum makes if virtually impossible for any one offensive lineman to deal with him on a snap-to-snap basis.
3. New York Jets: Quinnen Williams, DT, Alabama
The Jets’ defensive line has been obliterated over the last few years, and that’s part of an overall talent drain that makes some wonder why general manager Mike Maccagnan is still in place. That notwithstanding, Williams would be an excellent choice to help solidify that line again. I don’t personally put him as the top interior lineman as many do—Ed Oliver holds that spot for me—but despite his pack of a consistent bull-rush and tendency to disappear at times, Williams also has splashes of highlight plays in which he shows his able potential. New Jets defensive coordinator Gregg Williams will know how to bring the best out of Williams’ potential.
4. Oakland Raiders: Josh Allen, EDGE, Kentucky
One of the more frustrating things for Raiders fans in a frustrating first season under Jon Gruden 2.0 was the fact that Oakland traded All-World pass-rusher Khalil Mack to the Bears, and then bemoaned the fact that the team didn’t have much in the way of a pass rush. That tends to happen when you deal your best overall player, guys. Arden Key led the Raiders with 31 total pressures, which isn’t acceptable in any league. Allen would rectify this situation immediately and single-handedly—his movement through the pocket is otherworldly, and he’ll be even better at the NFL level when he develops an array of complementary hand moves.
5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Deionte Thompson, FS, Alabama
Put simply, Tampa Bay’s pass defense is a mess. The Bucs ranked dead last in Football Outsiders’ opponent-adjusted defensive metrics, and 30th against the pass. Chief among the team’s issues is a safety situation that needs to be rectified across the board. Thompson, the best and rangiest deep defender in this class, and he has the skills to cover in the slot as well. This is a team in desperate need of a tone-setter in the secondary, and Thompson fits the bill.
6. New York Giants: Dwayne Haskins, QB, Ohio State
Will Giants GM Dave Gettleman go after one of his beloved “Hog Mollies” and fortify the offensive or defensive line with this pick? It’s quite possible, though it’s also past time to start thinking about life past Eli Manning. The Giants have made a number of moves in this direction over the last few years, but nothing has really stuck. Haskins has the talent to press the situation sooner than later—he’s a full-field reader with a dynamic arm, and though he doesn’t possess the mobility necessary to deal with a patchwork offensive line, head coach Pat Shurmur has proven able to mitigate this with a quick and efficient passing game.
7. Jacksonville Jaguars: Kyler Murray, QB, Oklahoma
The Jaguars are on the precipice of wasting an outstanding defense and running game at the altar of Blake Bortles, a quarterback who has regressed from the middle in recent seasons. It’s time to move on, and though Murray doesn’t meet the height/weight standard some teams prefer, the Jags are analytically-driven enough to look beyond the surface and see what Murray really brings to the field. Despite standing 5’10” (a generous measurement, we may discover at the combine), Murray is the best pocket passer in this class, he’s a quick and dynamic runner, and he has the potential to tear up the league in a run-based, play-action offense.
8. Detroit Lions: Clelin Ferrell, EDGE, Clemson
Ezekiel Ansah started just two games in 2018, lost most of the season to injury, and will likely walk as a free agent. That leaves the Lions with precious little pass-rush, which is what they had last year anyway. Ferrell, who amassed 21 sacks and 38 tackles for loss over the last two seasons, has the burst to blast through the pocket and the field sense to back off and know when to help stop the run. Like most collegiate defensive linemen, he could stand to be more varied with his hand movement, which just adds to his potential at the next level.
9. Buffalo Bills: Rashan Gary, DE, Michigan
With Kyle Williams retiring, Jerry Hughes is pretty much the lone consistent provider of pass-rush acumen on the Bills’ roster. Lorenzo Alexander has beaten Father Time for a while now, but he’s more of a multi-position guy, and Shaq Lawson hasn’t lived up to his draft position. Gary is an interesting, developing edge guy who has the size to play inside on passing downs. Bills defensive coordinator Leslie Frazier could build Gary as an elite pass-rusher from the bottom up.
10. Denver Broncos: Drew Lock, QB, Missouri
That the Broncos now have Joe Flacco and Case Keenum under contract doesn’t preclude John Elway from making a high draft pick at the quarterback position. Neither Flacco nor Keenum is a long-term solution (Flacco might not even be a short-term solution), and one suspects that Elway would desperately like to get a quarterback draft pick right one of these years. Lock would give him the potential to do so—he has the best arm in this draft class, and his mechanics have improved exponentially throughout his college days.
11. Cincinnati Bengals: Jonah Williams, OT, Alabama
The Bengals have a ton of tackle talent potentially leaving the building via free agency, and it’s not like the guys on board in 2018 were amazing, with Cordy Glenn as the sole possible exception. New Bengals head coach Zac Taylor was hired because of his proximity to Sean McVay, and one of the things the Rams did when hiring McVay was to intelligently re-tool their offensive line. It’s time for the Bengals to do that, and Williams would be an excellent linchpin.
12. Green Bay Packers: T.J. Hockenson, TE, Iowa
The Packers haven’t had a consistent tight end for Aaron Rodgers since Jermichael Finley was in his prime. Richard Rodgers has had his moments, and the Jimmy Graham experiment last year wasn’t really a great fit for a number of reasons. Now, under new head coach Matt LaFleur, one would expect more opportunities for a tight end in a more expansive offense. Hockenson brings Martellus Bennett to mind with his size, his smooth gliding through routes, and his ability to make the contested catch. Factor in his plus-level blocking, and there’s a whole lot to like about this player in this system.
13. Miami Dolphins: D.K. Metcalf, WR, Mississippi
The Dolphins might go with a quarterback here if there’s a guy they like; it’s pretty clear that the Ryan Tannehill era is nearing its end. But new offensive coordinator Chad O’Shea worked with the Patriots’ receivers in his prior job, and he’ll want a comprehensive array of targets for whoever his quarterback is. With Devante Parker and Danny Amendola possibly released due to cap concerns, it will behoove Miami’s front office to bring a dominant receiver in. Metcalf is certainly that—the 6’4”, 225-pounder played in just seven games last season due to a neck injury, but the tape he did put up shows a potentially dominant contested-catch receiver at all levels of the field.
14. Atlanta Falcons: Byron Murphy, CB, Washington
The Falcons’ defense fell apart last season due to a number of injuries, but the cornerbacks who played weren’t exactly lights-out. Scheme and personnel didn’t mix as well as they had the year before, and head coach Dan Quinn needs a new, young cornerback who can come in and assimilate immediately. Murphy, who was dominant in one of the NCAA’s best defenses, allowed less than half the passes thrown to his area to be caught, and he’s also a top-notch run defender. He’d be a perfect fit in Quinn’s defense, which requires cornerbacks to play multiple roles and cover a ton of ground.
15. Washington: Daniel Jones, QB, Duke
One should never underestimate Washington head coach Jay Gruden’s ability to take mediocre quarterbacks and coach them up to their best level of performance, but with Alex Smith most likely missing a large chunk (if not all) of the 2019 season due to injury, a full season of Colt McCoy isn’t going to cut it. Perhaps the team will test the waters on a mid-level free agent, but the best path would be to select a young quarterback for the future. Jones isn’t yet a perfect passer, but he shows a lot of potential as a ball-distributor in a West Coast-style offense, which is exactly where Gruden situates.
16. Carolina Panthers: Andraez “Greedy” Williams, CB, LSU
The Panthers’ cornerback situation in 2018 was… well, not good. Second-round rookie Donte Jackson looked like a world-beater at times, but he’s still developing, and he needs a bookend to make Carolina’s defense everything it can be. Williams would be perfect in Carolina’s defense—he can play everything from force defender to boundary cornerback, and with his trail speed, he has the look of a CB1. Williams could stand to gain a few pounds, and he struggles against angular routes as most taller cornerbacks do, but he’s a first round talent here for a team in need of it.
17. Cleveland Browns: Christian Wilkins, DL, Clemson
The Browns have two great defensive linemen in tackle Larry Ogunjobi and pass-rusher Myles Garrett, and a potential star in 2018 rookie Genard Avery. What they need as a team on the rise is the addition of a dominant interior defender to max out all that talent. Wilkins could turn this defensive line from very good to great both as a pass-rusher and a run-stopper—he regularly takes up double teams because he tends to vaporize single blockers, and he still amassed 40 total pressures on just 286 passing snaps.
18. Minnesota Vikings: Greg Little, OL, Mississippi
If there’s one thing for sure, it’s that the Vikings desperately need help along their offensive line. Little could fit in at tackle, though he also projects well by some as a guard due to his punch and power. 2018 Vikings left tackle Riley Reiff allowed 42 total pressures in 541 pass-blocking snaps, and given his kick-slide and combination of strength and mobility, Little may project best at that spot in this hypothetical move.
19. Tennessee Titans: Jachai Polite, EDGE, Florida
Titans head coach Mike Vrabel has two excellent pass-rushers in Jurrell Casey and 2018 rookie Harold Landry, but you can never have too much pass rush, especially on a staff that knows how to utilize multi-gap edge guys. Polite, who amassed 11 sacks and 19 tackles for loss in 2018, may be the quickest and most sudden edge man in this draft class. He absolutely explodes through and to the pocket from outside, and though he does tend to get erased by more powerful tackles, the 6’2”, 242-pound Polite could be a major addition if he’s put in place to take advantage of open gaps.
20. Pittsburgh Steelers: Devin White, ILB, LSU
Obviously, everything is up in the air for a Steelers team that will not have Le’Veo Bell in 2019 and may not have Antonio Brown, either. Those situations could affect what general manager Kevin Colbert decides to do. But one thing is abundantly clear—Pittsburgh has not replaced Ryan Shazier’s athleticism at the inside linebacker positions since Shazier was seriously injured in late 2017. This showed over and over in 2018, though some of Pittsburgh’s defensive issues had to do with scheme, and it’s as important as anything else that Colbert and his staff get some more pure athleticism inside. White would certainly do that. He’s been the shot-caller on LSU’s defense, and he can do everything from stack and shed at the line of scrimmage to roam to either boundary and drop into coverage.
21. Seattle Seahawks: Montez Sweat, EDGE, Mississippi State
The Seahawks probably won’t let pass-rusher Frank Clark walk, whether it takes a new contract or the franchise tag for that to happen. But Pete Carroll and John Schneider still haven’t replaced Cliff Avril and Michael Bennett on the edge. While the need for an elite free safety looms large with the departure of Earl Thomas, Carroll has always believed that you can never have too many pass rushers. A slim, athletic marvel, Sweat is just about unblockable when he puts it all together, and he reminds me a bit of Bruce Irvin, who Seattle took in the first round of the 2012 draft. Sweat is a superior athlete in need of a plan.
22. Baltimore Ravens: Johnathan Abram, S, Mississippi State
The 34-year-old Eric Weddle has snubbed Father Time longer than most NFL players could ever have a right to expect, especially at a position where change-of-direction athleticism is at a premium. But with Weddle and the 27-year-old Tony Jefferson as their primary safeties last season, it’s time to inject some youth into one of the most consistently high-quality secondaries over the last decade. Abram excels as a two-high safety who crashes down on the run and can cover huge swaths of ground in a major hurry. He’s not always under control, but he’s a formidable player when he is.
23. Houston Texans: Cody Ford, OL, Oklahoma
Deshaun Watson was under pressure on 44.7% of his dropbacks in 2018, which led the NFL by a fairly wide margin. Houston must upgrade its offensive line before a championship chase is possible. Ford is raw like sushi as a tackle, which makes him less of a consistent finisher than you’d want from a guy standing 6’3” and weighing 338 pounds, but the Texans could derive instant benefits from his raw strength and athleticism by moving him inside to guard in the short term.
24. Oakland Raiders (from Chicago Bears): Josh Jacobs, RB, Alabama
Jon Gruden hasn’t changed as a coach as much as his time on Gruden’s QB Camp may have you thinking—the Raiders had more rushing attempts (387) than pass completions (382) last season despite the back rotation consisting of the Over the Hill Gang of Doug Martin and Marshawn Lynch, with a bit of multi-purpose back Jalen Richard thrown in for good measure. If Gruden wants to play 90s-style bullyball, he’ll have to acquire a young back fit for that philosophy. Jacobs is built for power, though there’s more than that to his game—he’s an estimable receiver and blocker, and he scored 14 touchdowns on just 140 total touches last season. He has the potential to make a difference in an NFL offense the way Sony Michel did for the Patriots in 2018.
25. Philadelphia Eagles: Dexter Lawrence, DT, Clemson
The disparity between the great Fletcher Cox and the rest of Philly’s interior defensive linemen couldn’t have been much starker. Last season, Cox totaled 95 pressures, an ungodly amount for a guy who sees more than his share of double-teams. Treyvon Hester finished second… with 10 pressures. This is a defense best served by the ability to bring interior pressure, and Lawrence would be a huge (literal and figurative) addition to that line. Playing everywhere from head-up nose tackle to end at 6’3” and 350 pounds, Lawrence would take some of the pressure off Cox, and bring his own pass-rush and run-stopping abilities to the table.
26. Indianapolis Colts: N’Keal Harry, WR, Arizona State
The 2018 version of Andrew Luck benefited greatly from two things: Good health for the first time in years, and a Frank Reich-led offense that was one of the NFL’s most effective, especially in the passing game. That Luck threw for 39 touchdowns and nearly 4,600 yards with one true receiver amassing over 500 yards (T.Y. Hilton with 1,270) is further testament to Luck’s greatness and how well he fits into the best system he’s had since Bruce Arians was running his playbook. However, it’s time to give Luck a alpha dog alongside Hilton, and Harry would be an excellent choice. He’s not a top-level burner, but like Keenan Allen, he uses route understanding and subtle separation skills to get open. An advanced quarterback like Luck would love a receiver with Harry’s skill set on the roster.
27. Oakland Raiders (from Dallas Cowboys): Jeffery Simmons, DT, Mississippi State
If there’s one thing Jon Gruden’s Raiders proved last year both in the draft and free agency, it’s that they won’t be risk-averse—for better and for worse. Simmons is a risk in two different directions—first, there was the video of Simmons repeatedly punching a woman during a 2016 fight, and then, there was the knee injury he suffered during workouts in January. There is absolutely no question about Simmons’ skills on the field, but for him to have any shot at a first-round selection, he’s going to need a team unafraid to roll the dice. This would be the team to do it.
28. Los Angeles Chargers: Mack Wilson, LB, Alabama
The Chargers went with a seven-defensive back defense in their wild-card win over the Ravens, and were upended by it when the Patriots ran all over them in the divisional round. This defense has a great secondary, and Jatavis Brown and Denzel Perryman their moments at linebacker, but it’s pretty clear that reinforcements are needed. Wilson is the prototypical modern “do-it-all” linebacker, just as comfortable dropping into coverage and blitzing up the A-gaps as he is moving from sideline to sideline to stop the run.
29. Kansas City Chiefs: Chauncey Gardner-Johnson, FS, Florida
Safety Eric Berry has been a transcendent player when healthy and well, but he’s played in just four games over the last two seasons. The Chiefs fired defensive coordinator Bob Sutton after their AFC championship loss to the Patriots, which was the right thing to do, but replacement Steve Spagnuolo needs help in the secondary, especially at the deep safety position. With 92 solo tackles and nine interceptions over three seasons, Gardner-Johnson qualifies, but it’s his ability to credibly play everywhere from center field to the slot to outside that makes him a special player.
30. Green Bay Packers (from New Orleans Saints): Nasir Adderley, FS, Delaware
The Packers have issues at both cornerback and safety, though the hope is that new defensive coordinator Mike Pettine will help out with coverage concepts from the new millennium. Still, having 35-year-old Tramon Williams as your primary free safety probably isn’t the best long-term plan. To that end, let’s combine Packers history with the present. Adderley’s cousin Herb was a Hall of Fame defensive back through most of the Vince Lombardi era from 1961 through 1969, and the younger Adderley can play center field and cornerback.
31. Los Angeles Rams: Jaylon Ferguson, EDGE, Louisiana Tech
Wade Phillips’ defense has almost all the pieces to be dominant, but the need for a quality edge-rusher was clear last year, and the trade for Dante Fowler, Jr. only did so much. To take that front four to a level that even Aaron Donald can’t single-handedly, consistent edge pressure is required. Well, how about adding a guy who put up 45 sacks (an FBS record) and 67.5 tackles for loss over four collegiate seasons? Ferguson is an athletic edge guy with good instincts—when he gets a few extra hand moves and an inside counter, he could be especially dangerous, especially under Phillips’ tutelage.
32. New England Patriots: DeAndre Baker, CB, Georgia
Receiver could be a compelling need here, as could interior defensive line or safety in the long term. But I’d love to see what Bill Belichick and his staff would do with Baker, the reigning Thorpe Award winner, and a player who looks a lot bigger than his measured 5”10” and 180 pounds on the field. Adding Baker’s aggressive press coverage mindset and outstanding play instincts to a secondary loaded with experience could bring New England’s secondary to a new level.
