Sam Thomas's status as number two jockey to Paul Nicholls was the subject of increasing doubt yesterday, after Clive Smith, the owner of both Kauto Star and Master Minded, said that no decision will be taken on a ride for the latter horse in this weekend's Tingle Creek Chase at Sandown until tomorrow at the earliest.
Thomas won last year's Tingle Creek on Nicholls' Twist Magic, at the end of a golden run in major races while Ruby Walsh, the stable jockey at Nicholls' yard, was sidelined with an injury.
A similar series of opportunities this season, however, has brought nothing but disappointment so far, including the last-fence fall of Kauto Star in the Betfair Chase, a spectacular departure from Gwanako at Aintree and another fall, again at the last fence, from Big Buck's in Saturday's Hennessy Gold Cup.
Speculation that Thomas might be replaced on Master Minded when he makes his seasonal debut this weekend was fuelled on Saturday evening when Nicholls refused to confirm that his stable number two will take the ride. Strong rumours are already suggesting that Tony McCoy, the champion jockey, will replace Thomas in the Grade One event.
Like Nicholls, Clive Smith, who owns both Kauto Star and Master Minded, was non-committal yesterday.
"I had a brief chat with Paul this morning, and we will see how everything is on Tuesday, and there won't be any decisions about anything until then," Smith said. "We want to look at all the options." Smith concurred with Nicholls' opinion after Kauto Star's defeat at Haydock that no blame be attached to Thomas for the former Gold Cup winner's defeat.
"To be honest, I've only seen the race once since then, as I just haven't had a chance," he said. "It looked unlucky and the horse just slipped, but I think maybe the tactics were slightly wrong. Maybe between everybody it ended up that it was not quite the way we would have liked to run. I really can't say one way or the other what we're going to do. We'll make our minds up after we've seen the entries, and by that time, Paul will have been able to have a lot more input on all the issues."
Thomas was booked to ride at Leicester yesterday, but decided to take a day off and, perhaps, a deep breath, as he considers what the next few days may bring.
There looks to be a vicious circularity in his position. Twelve months ago, when Walsh sustained a shoulder injury in a fall at Cheltenham, Nicholls had no hesitation in nominating Thomas as a replacement and as things immediately went well, the jockey fed on his employer's confidence and discovered new reserves of his own.
This time around, though, Nicholls' belief in Thomas seems to have been ebbing since Kauto Star hit the turf at Haydock, and Thomas must sense it. That can only wear away still further at his own confidence, with the result that each new reverse is felt even more keenly.
It may now be too late for Nicholls to issue a stirring defence clear Thomas to ride Master Minded on Saturday, since the damage to Thomas's self-assurance has already been done. Indeed, it might be the worst outcome of all for Thomas, who would still go into a major race both under pressure and short of confidence.
What is also interesting about the current situation, though, is what it suggests about Nicholls' own self-belief. Despite his dominance of the jumping game, he appears to have been rattled by a couple of poor weekends. Handing a vital role to Thomas and then, in effect, undermining him almost immediately is not what you expect from a man who always stresses the importance of team spirit and playing the long game. Might it, perhaps, suggest underlying worries about the well-being of his string? Only time - and the return of Ruby Walsh who was among the crowd at Fairyhouse yesterday - will tell.
