There is growing speculation that Prime Minister Shinzo Abe might take the bold decision to hold a "double election" for both Diet chambers this summer, a move some members of his ruling Liberal Democratic Party support and apparently aimed at keeping opposition parties on the hop.
A House of Councillors election is scheduled for this summer, and Abe is considering holding a House of Representatives election on the same day to capitalize on his Cabinet's high support rate. However, the LDP's coalition partner, Komeito, remains opposed to holding the double election.
The double election was the main talking point at meetings held Thursday by the LDP's factions.
"We're combat-ready at all times so let's start getting prepared," said former Health, Labor and Welfare Minister Norihisa Tamura, a member of the Ishiba faction. At the Ishihara faction meeting, when lower house lawmaker Tetsushi Sakamoto revealed he had "selected a site for an election office," gasps of surprise rang out around the room.
Support for the Abe Cabinet and the LDP has remained strong in opinion polls conducted by various media outlets. In a Yomiuri Shimbun survey conducted from April 26 to 28, support for the Cabinet jumped to 54 percent -- its highest this year -- and that for the LDP reached 40 percent.
The LDP romped to a crushing victory in the 2013 upper house election. Lawmakers elected in that poll are up for election this summer, and the dominant view is that the LDP will lose some seats as a reaction to its previous win. The party expects that if a double election were to be held, having the support organizations for lower house lawmakers operating at full tilt could also help bring in more votes in the upper house poll.
"If the prime minister decides to go ahead, the party will fully support him and handle the situation," LDP Secretary General Toshihiro Nikai said.
On April 30, Deputy Prime Minister Taro Aso, who also is finance minister, met with Abe for talks at his private residence for two hours. This fueled conjecture about the double election option, as Aso reportedly supports holding the upper and lower house elections in tandem. "I wonder if he was trying to prod the prime minister to hold the double election," a senior LDP official said.
If the double election does materialize, Abe will "probably pitch the idea of constitutional revision to appeal to voters," a close aide of the prime minister told The Yomiuri Shimbun.
At a party meeting Thursday, Abe said: "We'll make a new constitution with our own hands. At the very least, holding discussions would be sensible." If Abe is to achieve his goal of realizing constitutional amendment in 2020, substantial discussions would need to start during the extraordinary Diet session this autumn. If the appropriateness of discussions on constitutional revisions were raised as one point of contention for the double election and pro-amendment political forces won at least two-thirds of the seats in both chambers, the stage would be set for discussions in autumn and beyond.
Abe's change of plan and willingness to hold a summit meeting with North Korea's leader without preconditions also sparked suspicions about the election. "He might make a sudden visit to North Korea to find a way to resolve the abduction issue, and then opt to dissolve" the lower house, a midranking LDP member suggested. As LDP Executive Acting Secretary General Koichi Hagiuda, who is close to Abe, indicated a delay in the looming consumption tax rate increase was a possibility, some see that "Abe could make another delay in the rate hike an election issue before dissolving the lower house."
The justification for dissolving the lower chamber was a topic of discussion at a meeting of the LDP's Election Strategy Committee on Wednesday. According to an attendee, Senior Acting Secretary General Motoo Hayashi reportedly said the opposition parties' submission of a no-confidence motion against the Cabinet in the lower house "could become such justification."
In contrast to the LDP's position, Komeito has constantly opposed a double election because of the additional burden this would place on Soka Gakkai, its main support group. "The administration won't be able to recover if it suffers a setback after the dissolution," Komeito leader Natsuo Yamaguchi said to reporters in Fukuoka on Monday.
Opposition parties on edge
The opposition parties are stepping up their preparations for a double election.
At a party meeting Thursday, the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan's Diet affairs committee chief Kiyomi Tsujimoto showed concern about the rumored developments, saying: "This would be an opportunistic dissolution capitalizing on the new Reiwa era. Some people want to piggyback on the celebratory mood and push for the dissolution."
At a meeting of CDPJ executives Tuesday, the attendees thought voting for the elections was possible "in early July" and confirmed plans to advance preparations for a lower house election at that time.
CDPJ leader Yukio Edano held talks with other opposition party leaders in late April, at which they agreed to field unified candidates in the upper and lower house elections. While the number of constituencies where coordination is needed will increase, a senior official of the Democratic Party For the People said: "We aren't competing so much with the CDPJ. Making the necessary arrangements will be easy." However, the CDPJ has only 75 candidates for the lower house election, including incumbent lawmakers, and the DPFP has just 60.
Last Sunday, the Japanese Communist Party held the sixth plenum of the Central Committee meeting and relaxed the conditions it would require to be met for mutually endorsing and supporting other opposition parties in the upper house election. This shift is expected to accelerate coordination among the opposition bloc. Speculation that a double election is on the horizon is boosting efforts by the opposition bloc to jointly fight the ruling parties.
Even so, many observers believe simply lining up behind a single candidate will not be enough. "If a double election goes ahead, we could suffer a catastrophic defeat," Ichiro Ozawa, whose party recently merged with the DPFP, said on a TV program Tuesday. Ozawa also urged opposition parties to join forces.
This view was echoed by DPFP acting leader Kohei Otsuka. "The only option for fulfilling our responsibility as an opposition party is to form a unified list of candidates," Otsuka said at a press conference Thursday.
Opposition parties have a custom of capping their criticism of the administration by submitting a motion of no-confidence against the Cabinet near the end of the ordinary Diet session. However, some opposition party members are hesitant to take such a step this time.
"Doing that would give the ruling parties justification to dissolve the chamber," a senior CDPJ official said.
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