MIAMI _ Hurricane Dorian swelled to a catastrophic Category 5 storm with sustained winds of 180 mph as it bore down on the Abaco Islands in northern Bahamas _ the strongest hurricane ever to hit the islands.
The 11 a.m. Sunday advisory by the National Hurricane Center placed the hurricane 205 miles east of West Palm Beach, near latitude 26.5 north and 76.8 west. The storm continues to slow down, now moving west at 7 mph.
The slow pace could have disastrous consequences for the Bahamas. The storm will linger over Great Abaco and Great Bahama Island starting Sunday night through Monday, potentially dumping as much as 30 inches of rain over the region.
The hurricane is expected to near the Florida east coast sometime between late Monday and Tuesday night.
The Center has issued a storm surge watch from north of Deerfield Beach to the Volusia/Brevard County line. The previously issued tropical storm watch for that region was also upgraded to a hurricane watch. A tropical storm watch was also issued for Lake Okeechobee.
A storm surge watch means there is a possibility of life-threatening inundation over the next 48 hours, with potential surges of two to four feet from Deerfield Beach north to the Jupiter Inlet. State emergency management director Jared Moskowitz said mandatory evacuation orders are being issued in Palm Beach and Martin Counties for zones A + B at 1 p.m. Sunday. Emergency shelters will be opened at the same time.
Hurricane Dorian continued to grow in size, with hurricane-force winds extending 45 miles from its center and tropical-force winds extending 140 miles from its center.
While the National Hurricane Center was still predicting Florida would avoid a direct hit, the latest advisory put more of the coast into the cone, warning that storm surges and hurricane-force winds are possible along portions of the Florida east coast through mid-week.
"Only a slight deviation to the left of the official forecast would bring the core of Dorian near or over the coast," the alert stated.
A tropical storm watch was extended to Miramar, Pembroke Pines, Plantation, Lauderdale Lakes, Sunrise, Tamarac, Coral Springs and Coconut Creek. Those Broward municipalities could expect wind gusts of 39-73 mph by Tuesday.
The tropical storm watch is already causing snarls at the Fort Lauderdale-Hollywood International Airport (FLL), where 36 flights had been canceled as of noon Sunday due to the storm.
"We're being impacted not by the local weather, but by the surrounding areas," said Greg Meyer, spokesperson for FLL. "We've had some cancellations with some of our international carriers. And many of the existing flights were already full, because of the Labor Day weekend. But we're still running at full capacity."
A tropical storm warning was issued for coastal areas reaching north from Deerfield Beach to Sebastian. Those areas could get sustained winds of 39-73 mph by Monday.
The shift in track put the hurricane about 50 miles closer to the Florida coast and increased the chances of wind threats from Miami-Dade to Daytona Beach. The eye of the storm would remain 70 miles offshore, but the closer proximity leaves Florida more vulnerable to slight wobbles in the hurricane's path.
If the storm continues its current path and speed, its eye would be near Jupiter in 48 hours.
"Since Dorian is forecast to slow down and turn northward as it approaches the coast, life-threatening storm surge and dangerous hurricane-force winds are still possible along portions of the Florida east coast by the middle part of this week," the 8 a.m. public advisory said. "Residents should have their hurricane plan in place, know if they are in a hurricane evacuation zone, and listen to advice given by local government officials."
Indian River County emergency officials encouraged all residents and visitors east of U.S. Highway 1 to voluntarily evacuate. Mandatory evacuations in Indian River County are set to begin Monday. Shelters will open Monday, including special needs and pet-friendly locations. Shelter locations and times of opening will be announced Monday morning.
"We continue to encourage residents to prepare as this dangerous category 5 hurricane comes dangerously close to our community," read an advisory from Indian River County. "Hurricane Dorian continues to be an unpredictable storm and should not be taken lightly."
The slight shift in the storm's expected path was the result of new computer models that suggested Dorian would meander over the northwest Bahamas for the next few days and drift closer to the Florida coast before turning north. The timing of that turn will make a huge difference in how badly the hurricane impacts for the state.
Sunday morning, state officials said they expected additional storm watches to be announced soon on Florida's east coast as Dorian nears the state.
"It's Groundhog Day #5," State Emergency Response Team (SERT) chief Kevin Guthrie told the Florida Emergency Operations Center Sunday morning, referencing Dorian's slow-moving path.
He said logistical teams should focus on using in-state mutual aid agreements as the storm's uncertain track swung slightly offshore in the Atlantic, so that resources would be available for the state's most threatened counties should Dorian hit hard.
"We're starting to see more of the Panhandle free up, some of the west coast free up," he said. The state has already begun using some of those agreements to prepare pumps, transportation assets and sanitation packages, SERT logistics chief Eugene Buerkle said.
But the warnings issued Sunday morning are already having an effect on residents in the impacted areas. At BagelWorks in Boca Raton, a restaurant and deli which boasts of "ridiculously good food" and is perpetually packed, patrons were still streaming in around 11 a.m. Sunday, though there were a few more empty tables than usual.
Robin Karas, 58, a popular waitress there the past 10 years, lives about 20 miles north of Boca in Lake Worth. But Karas was dutifully serving freshly baked bagels and eggs and breakfast food to her customers.
That doesn't mean she wasn't nervous.
"We'll be notified by tonight when they see what the winds will do as to what's going on here at work,'' Karas said. "I'm very nervous and kind of stressed.
"Until the hurricane is out of the Bahamas I am extremely uncertain of what it's going to do to us, so I'm very prepared. I have to stay with my daughter because her husband is in law enforcement and they have two small daughters ages 4 and 2. They live about six minutes away from me and have impact windows and shutters and a generator and propane so I feel a little safer there."
Forecasters and emergency planners had warned for several days about getting too comfortable with encouraging model runs. As Gov. Ron DeSantis cautioned at a Saturday briefing, residents should not take the fierce and still-strengthening system lightly. "We're not out of the woods yet," he said at a Saturday night briefing.
Herald staff writers Joey Flechas and Susan Miller Degnan contributed to this report.
