Whether it be the judicial system, universities, or health organisations, Donald Trump cannot abide by anything that does not confirm his world view. So it was not a shock when late last week he came for statistics – or, more pointedly, the person in charge of the economic statistics.
On Friday, the US’s Bureau of Labor Studies released the July US employment figures. They were not good. Just 73,000 non-farm jobs were added and annual employment growth was the worst it has been since the GFC years (excluding the pandemic):
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In response, Trump did what any autocrat would do when told bad news: he shot the messenger – at least only figuratively. Trump argued that Erika McEntarfer, the commissioner of labor statistics, had faked bad figures purely to hurt him.
But this should not be dismissed as “oh that’s just Trump”, nor should we just sigh and say we have been in a fact-free era for nearly a decade.
Reality might be hanging on to the political debate for dear life, but this move threatens to fling it off the cliff.
The BLS data is vital for understanding not just what is going on in the USA but to guide other nations – like here in Australia. For example, Australia is doing very well compared with the US. Unlike the US, our employment rate is higher now than it was before the pandemic:
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These comparisons can influence future policies. For example, we did very well during the GFC; the US did not. We also did much better during the pandemic than the US.
They also give insight into the future. The US is still the world’s biggest economy and – as we have seen with inflation – what happens there, often happens here, in Australia:
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If Trump doesn’t like weak employment growth numbers, you think he’ll be happy with inflation data that shows his tariffs are causing higher prices? And this is not just some academic exercise. US welfare payments are indexed to inflation, so the official data vitally affects the livelihood of many people.
Trump thinks when he closes his eyes the rest of the world disappears. But not measuring inflation or unemployment or global temperatures doesn’t disappear the problems. And loss of trust in official data will affect business investment decisions, borrowing costs and – as with all attacks on institutions – faith in democracy.
For example, in Australia, the Australian Bureau of Statistics has revealed that in the past year the cost of living for all households except “self-funded” retirees rose faster than did inflation:
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This is not the greatest news for the Australian government – no politician likes data that says things might be worse than what they previously argued.
Cost of living, unlike inflation, includes mortgage repayments. Despite falling interest rates, repaying a mortgage is still around 4.4% higher than it was a year ago, and since March 2022 mortgage repayments have accounted for nearly half of the increase in cost of living:
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Does it help the Australian government for the ABS to reveal this? Not really. It could blame our Reserve Bank, but generally governments are blamed for high interest rates.
It certainly doesn’t help the government for the ABS to release figures that some journalist like me can use to show that the value of wages are 8.6% lower than they were in March 2021 when you use cost of living rather than CPI:
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That type of information makes life hard for the government – but so it should!
In a democracy you have to face your critics, argue your case and convince voters you have the best plans and way forward. Political parties are already working hard to make you question reality. But at least till now, even in the US, where Trump would like there to be a new kind of maths where prices can fall by more than 100% (1,000%, 1,100, 1,200, 1,300!!), reality has been counted and presented.
The end of impartial economic data would not just be another case of Trump “flooding the zone”. It would be a fundamental attack on democracy, designed to ensure those who are suffering from his polices are not able to demonstrate that things are worse – either for them or for the nation.
They are the actions usually associated with authoritarian regimes, and we should not shy away from making that clear.
Greg Jericho is a Guardian columnist and policy director at the Centre for Future Work
