There is an old adage among criminal investigators that when you’re investigating something potentially huge, you don’t go for the biggest target first.
Rather, you work your way slowly and methodically, looking to peel away layers and trying to build up evidence. Crucially, you look to try and get some of the smaller fish to turn and provide evidence about the bigger fish.
This is what Special Prosecutor Robert Mueller appears to be doing in regard to the Trump-Russia investigation. And in light of today’s developments, Donald Trump will surely be sleeping a little less easily.
Michael Flynn, Mr Trump’s former national security adviser, is reportedly set to plead guilty to lying to the FBI over a meeting he had with Russia’s then Washington Ambassador Sergey Kislyak on December 29 2016, the same day that Barack Obama imposed sanctions on Russia and expelled 35 diplomats in response for Moscow’s alleged interference in the 2016 election.
The indictment says Mr Flynn lied about asking Russia to refrain from escalating its response and lied too, about Mr Kislyak later telling him that Russia had chosen to moderate its response. The following day, Vladimir Putin surprised everyone by announcing Russia was not enacting a tit-for-tat move. Mr Trump praised the Russian leader’s decision on Twitter, saying: “Great move on delay (by V. Putin) - I always knew he was very smart!”
If Mr Flynn pleads guilty, it suggests he has done some sort of plea deal with Mr Mueller. There have been numerous reports he has been speaking to Mr Mueller’s team in recent weeks.
And we know this is the way that Mr Mueller operates. In October, he charged Mr Trump’s former campaign manager Paul Manafort and his former business partner Rick Gates, with 12 counts of financial crimes related to their work in Ukraine. At the same time, he revealed foreign policy adviser, George Papadopoulos, had pleaded guilty to lying to the FBI - the same charge Mr Flynn appears set to admit to.
Mr Papadopoulos was on the fringes of the Trump campaign; Mr Flynn was not. He was a key adviser during the campaign and appeared the Republican National Convention where he delivered a fiery speech in which he attacked Hillary Clinton and led the crowd in chants of “lock her up” . Mr Trump hung on to him February 13 2017 until he was forced to fire him as it became increasingly clear he had lied about meeting Mr Kislyak.
In short, Mr Flynn was not some bit player in the Trump world but someone very important. Presumably, there is an awful lot of information about the campaign that Mr Mueller is interested in hearing about.
