On March 9, Donald Trump billed his war with Iran as a “short-term excursion” that was already “very complete”. In fact, he even explained that as the US was “ahead of our initial time timeline by a lot”, it may end at any point.
I don’t know if you’ve been paying attention to the news, but this didn’t happen. Iran has nowhere near the firepower of the United States, but were planning for this eventuality for years and have so far managed to out-maneuver the increasingly desperate Trump, who is now pleading with European allies for assistance.
So, how’re those predictions on when the war will end shaping up now? Over to Trump himself, who was asked that very question in the Oval Office: “We’ll be leaving very soon” he insisted, saying that the war could be over “within two weeks, maybe two weeks, maybe three.” Why stop there, Donald? Maybe it’s going to be four. Y’know what, five might do it. Well, realistically, it’s going to be no more than six more weeks. Or more.
Trump on when he'll leave Iran: "Within two weeks" pic.twitter.com/LIKvfofVtn
— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) March 31, 2026
Trump went on to vow that his victory condition is that Iran be “put into the stone ages”, not get a nuclear weapon, and “then we’ll leave”. Iran didn’t have nuclear weapons to begin with! And, even if they had, you already said you destroyed them last year!
The Quagmire Show
Trump desperately wants out of Iran. This needless war is cratering his approval ratings, doing enormous damage to the economy, turning some of his most passionate supporters against him, and each day it drags on, the damage to worldwide energy production increases. And all this as the November midterms loom!
Unfortunately for Trump (and, I guess, the rest of us), he can’t simply pack his bags and go home. His attempts to bully Iran have failed, and his pathetic attempts to declare victory and hope reality conforms aren’t working. Despite all his blustering, the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, Iran has made zero concessions to him, and they continue to launch missiles at US bases.
The most likely scenario is that Trump gambles on the fact that his most deranged followers will swallow whatever he feeds them. This means running out of the Middle East with his tail between his legs while trying to spin the humiliating defeat as a historic victory for the United States.
Maybe some of the more gullible MAGA will believe him. Everyone else will see that regime change didn’t happen, that a small, isolated country pushed back against the United States, that they now hate America more than ever, and that the rest of the world has turned its back on him.
This must be Trump’s worst nightmare. For years, he’s relied on being able to bully and manipulate everyone around him. But, in Iran, he’s found an adversary that won’t be pushed around. They neither respect nor fear him, and it seems they’re willing to fight to the death rather than bend the knee.
Where we end up in a year is anyone’s guess, though right now it seems likely that there will be no regime change in Iran. Worse, whoever is in power will have absolutely no reason to ever trust in negotiations with the United States again, combined with an obvious incentive to actually secure nuclear weapons as quickly as possible to prevent this from happening again.
