It was supposed to be a cakewalk. The special election for Tennessee's solidly conservative 7th U.S. House Congressional District, vacated by former Republican Rep. Mark Green, was a race the Grand Old Party (GOP) should have won easily.
The district, after all, supported Donald Trump by a margin of roughly 22 percentage points in the 2024 presidential election, according to available data. Yet, as the general election on Tuesday, Dec. 2, 2025, loomed, a palpable sense of anxiety gripped the Republican establishment.
The source of the nerves? There's a growing fear that the president's persistent unpopularity could lead to an embarrassing loss in a district they had long considered an iron-clad fortress.
In a dramatic final push to avert humiliation, Donald Trump Jr. released an urgent video appeal on Monday, just hours before polls opened. His appearance, which was described by Midastouch.com Editor Ron Filipkowski as 'melting down tonight', saw the president's son actively pleading with any Tennessean to mobilise voters for the Republican nominee.
'Junior is melting down tonight about the special election tomorrow in TN, which should be a cakewalk for Republicans. But it isn't, thanks to his dad's unpopularity', Filipkowski wrote online, summarising the unexpected pressure on the right.
This scramble to gin up votes contrasted sharply with the star power Democrats mobilised, bringing in former Vice President Al Gore, a Tennessee native, and U.S. Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez for an evening online rally in support of their candidate.
The Stakes Are High for the MAGA Movement and the Tennessee Special Election
The stakes in the Tennessee Special Election are far greater than a single House seat. For Republicans, holding the district is critical to maintaining their razor-thin majority in the U.S. House, which stood at 219-213 just before the vote. A loss here, in a district where Donald Trump and other GOP candidates routinely win with around 60% of the vote, would be a major morale boost for Democrats and a sign that the political environment is shifting ahead of next year's pivotal midterm elections.
For Democrats, pulling off an upset here would validate their recent string of special election overperformances, which saw them exceed the former Vice President Harris's vote share by an average of 9 percentage points in four previous House special elections that year.
The Republican candidate, Matt Van Epps — a former Army helicopter pilot, ex-state general services commissioner, and Trump-endorsed 'MAGA Warrior' — has seen his campaign inundated with last-minute support. House Speaker Mike Johnson, fighting to protect his party's slim majority, dialled up Donald Trump while addressing a rally for Van Epps in Franklin, holding his phone to the microphone so the crowd could hear the president's words.
'The whole world is watching Tennessee right now, and they're watching your district', Trump declared, urging them to 'make it a sweeping victory' that would show 'that the Republican Party is stronger than it's ever been'.
In D.C., Trump also took to Truth Social to rant about getting out Republican votes. 'I am asking all America First Patriots in Tennessee's 7th Congressional District to please GET OUT AND VOTE TOMORROW for a phenomenal Candidate, Matt Van Epps, on Election Day, Tuesday, December 2nd'! the president wrote to start off a long two-paragraph lecture.
Trump desperately pleaded, 'You can win this Election for MAGA Warrior Matt Van Epps, who has my Complete and Total Endorsement. HE WILL BE A GREAT CONGRESSMAN and, unlike his Opponent, he cherishes Christianity and Country Music—She has openly stated that she hates them both'!
He ended his appeal with an aggressive reminder: 'Election Day is TOMORROW, December 2nd. GET OUT AND VOTE, VOTE, VOTE FOR MATT VAN EPPS—HE WILL NEVER LET YOU DOWN'!
Democrats Target the Republican Stronghold
Van Epps's opponent is Democratic state Rep. Aftyn Behn, a progressive community organiser from Nashville who describes herself as a 'pissed-off social worker'. Her campaign has generated significant national interest, receiving strong backing from national groups.
The House Majority PAC has put $1 million behind her, and her campaign has raised a total of about $1 million as of mid-November, compared with Van Epps's additional $590,000 raised since the primary.
Some state Democrats have enthusiastically dubbed Behn 'our very own AOC of TN', a label Republicans have predictably seized upon to attack her as excessively liberal for the district. However, Behn has argued that the high-profile virtual rally featuring Tennessee native Al Gore and New York's Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez demonstrates the 'breadth of her backing'.
Former Vice President Kamala Harris also appeared in Nashville last month during a book tour to energise voters, and national party chair Ken Martin made a personal visit.
The district itself, comprising 14 counties, was redrawn in 2022 to diminish the political power of Nashville, the state's most populous city and a Democratic bastion. Despite the redrawing, roughly one in five of the district's registered voters still reside in Nashville.
Republicans are particularly concerned about voter participation given that early voting extended into the Thanksgiving week and Election Day fell immediately after the holiday weekend.
With an Emerson College poll showing Van Epps leading Behn by only two percentage points — 48% to 46% — the typically rock-solid Republican district had become a genuine battleground, turning an expected 'cakewalk' into a nail-biting, national spectacle.
